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Five years have passed since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, in an American strike—an appropriate time for a brief analysis of the consequences of his elimination, which continue to shake the Middle East:

1. The collapse of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” observed in the past year can be traced back to Soleimani’s assassination. Its significance is apparent when examining the current state of the axis.
2. While it is often argued that every eliminated leader has a replacement and only a few assassinations have a long-term impact, Soleimani’s elimination falls into the latter category. President Trump’s decision fundamentally reshaped the Middle East as a whole and specifically weakened Iran’s regional influence.
3. One thing is clear: No one has been able to fill Soleimani’s shoes. His successor, Qaani, failed to maintain control over Iran’s proxies in the region, forcing Nasrallah to assume a more significant leadership role in managing the proxies, which may have weakened Hezbollah itself.
4. It’s highly unlikely that Sinwar would have launched the October 7 attack without Soleimani’s awareness and involvement. Soleimani certainly would have prepared the axis for such an operation. The axis’s surprise following Hamas’s attack led to a confused, uncoordinated strategy, which failed to capitalize on Hamas’s operational success.
5. While Soleimani was alive, Iran’s proxies operated with limited independence (certainly the Houthis, the Iraqi militias, and even Hezbollah). With his death (and with the elimination of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis), the connection between Hezbollah and Iran was significantly damaged, especially in terms of Nasrallah’s ability to consult with Soleimani and better understand the mindset of the Iranian leadership.
6. Iran lost its greatest Middle East expert precisely when it needed him most. Tehran continues to pay the price for its detachment and poor understanding of regional dynamics in general and regarding Israel in particular. This has been reflected in a series of missteps, deepening Iran’s strategic distress. This distress is also a result of decisions made by Iranian proxies without coordination with Tehran.
7. The collapse of Assad’s regime is another consequence of Soleimani’s elimination. Soleimani was the only figure capable of coordinating efforts between Russia, Hezbollah, and the various Shiite militias to save Assad. While it’s difficult to determine what might have happened had Soleimani been alive, it’s clear today that no one could replace his ability to synchronize the defense efforts for the Syrian regime.
8. Iran will struggle to rebuild Hezbollah’s capabilities without Soleimani. His leadership after the Second Lebanon War transformed Hezbollah from a terror organization into a military force. Without Soleimani, and without Nasrallah, and certainly with the loss of Syria in the axis, the rebuilding will be far more difficult.

The bottom line is that Soleimani’s strength and dominance in shaping, managing, and coordinating the axis with Hezbollah and Nasrallah became a liability after his elimination, as no one could fill his shoes. The fragmentation of the axis and the rise of independent players have weakened Iran’s control and caused complications for Iran. During periods of relative calm, the consequences of Soleimani’s elimination could be concealed, but once the war broke out, his absence was deeply felt, impacting coordination, communication, and Iran’s understanding of regional dynamics.