The simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah operatives, mainly in Lebanon and Syria, marks another significant escalation in the war of attrition between the IDF and Hezbollah and increases the likelihood of an expanded conflict. Although Israel did not claim responsibility, Hezbollah, after a brief investigation, along with the Lebanese government, pointed the finger at Israel and promised an appropriate response.
Hezbollah has sought to establish an action–reaction dynamic with the IDF. However, it can’t ignore this unusual operation, which has dramatic consequences for the organization. Hezbollah has suffered enormous damage both operationally and morally. This mysterious and surprising operation resulted in injuries to thousands of the organization’s operatives, and hundreds were seriously injured, including senior officials. Hospitals in Lebanon are struggling to cope with the influx of casualties, the exact number unknown. Hezbollah’s command and control system has also been damaged, hindering its ability to organize a response and function effectively in the future.
It’s unlikely that Hezbollah’s response will be immediate. At this point, the organization appears to be trying to differentiate between the harsh response expected on its part and continuing the war of attrition it has been waging against Israel for almost a year, and it will try to maintain its routine of daily attacks. But it’s still too early to determine whether Nasrallah, in coordination with his key ally Iran (whose ambassador in Lebanon is among the wounded) will choose to continue the strategy of attrition and limit the response to avoid a wider war, or if this event will prompt a strategic shift toward expanding the conflict.
Israel faces two options: The first is to pause and adopt a waiting posture, leveraging the significant advantage this event has provided within the balance of power with Hezbollah, while allowing for another attempt at a political settlement in the north, despite the low likelihood of success. The second option is to take advantage of Hezbollah’s confusion and embarrassment following this operation to inflict further damage on the organization, reducing its capabilities and motivation to link Lebanon’s fate to the war in Gaza. This course of action carries the risk of crossing the threshold into a full-scale war.
Regardless, both sides have now embarked on a trajectory that brings them closer to the possibility of an all-out war in the north, which could quickly escalate into a multi-front conflict between Israel and the entire Shiite axis, all while the war in Gaza continues.
The simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah operatives, mainly in Lebanon and Syria, marks another significant escalation in the war of attrition between the IDF and Hezbollah and increases the likelihood of an expanded conflict. Although Israel did not claim responsibility, Hezbollah, after a brief investigation, along with the Lebanese government, pointed the finger at Israel and promised an appropriate response.
Hezbollah has sought to establish an action–reaction dynamic with the IDF. However, it can’t ignore this unusual operation, which has dramatic consequences for the organization. Hezbollah has suffered enormous damage both operationally and morally. This mysterious and surprising operation resulted in injuries to thousands of the organization’s operatives, and hundreds were seriously injured, including senior officials. Hospitals in Lebanon are struggling to cope with the influx of casualties, the exact number unknown. Hezbollah’s command and control system has also been damaged, hindering its ability to organize a response and function effectively in the future.
It’s unlikely that Hezbollah’s response will be immediate. At this point, the organization appears to be trying to differentiate between the harsh response expected on its part and continuing the war of attrition it has been waging against Israel for almost a year, and it will try to maintain its routine of daily attacks. But it’s still too early to determine whether Nasrallah, in coordination with his key ally Iran (whose ambassador in Lebanon is among the wounded) will choose to continue the strategy of attrition and limit the response to avoid a wider war, or if this event will prompt a strategic shift toward expanding the conflict.
Israel faces two options: The first is to pause and adopt a waiting posture, leveraging the significant advantage this event has provided within the balance of power with Hezbollah, while allowing for another attempt at a political settlement in the north, despite the low likelihood of success. The second option is to take advantage of Hezbollah’s confusion and embarrassment following this operation to inflict further damage on the organization, reducing its capabilities and motivation to link Lebanon’s fate to the war in Gaza. This course of action carries the risk of crossing the threshold into a full-scale war.
Regardless, both sides have now embarked on a trajectory that brings them closer to the possibility of an all-out war in the north, which could quickly escalate into a multi-front conflict between Israel and the entire Shiite axis, all while the war in Gaza continues.