The threat by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who said that just as Turkey acted militarily in Karabakh and Libya, “it will do the same to Israel,” is a worrying escalation. Although the chances of the threat’s realization still seem low, it must be remembered that Turkey has a UAV base in northern Cyprus, as well as a significant fleet with diverse capabilities.
Erdoğan’s statement can be attributed to three main factors. First, significant internal pressure within Turkey to escalate measures against Israel, a pressure that already bore fruit when Turkey announced a full economic embargo on Israel in early May. Secondly, the growing Turkish frustration with the continuation of the war in Gaza and the possibility of an expanded war between Israel and Lebanon as well, together with the fact that Turkey has a marginal influence on the course of events. Finally, since the beginning of the war, Erdoğan has stated that Israel has expansionist intentions beyond what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon and that it also threatens Turkey, thereby giving expression to the conspiracy theories that exist among the Turkish public. Together with all these elements, we must also note the growing influence of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, previously the head of the Turkish intelligence organization, who is known for his pro-Iranian stance. Since the beginning of the war, Turkish reactions to events are increasingly aligning with the Shia axis.
The rhetorical battles between decision-makers in Israel and Erdoğan, and in particular tweets by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, contribute to the worsening of the crisis and there is no indication that they are leading to restraint on the Turkish side. Israel must involve additional players, first and foremost the United States, to respond to the Turkish threat. No western player has an interest in seeing Turkey, which is a member of NATO, militarily confront Israel. There was no significant American response to Turkey’s decision to impose an economic embargo on Israel and it is not clear—perhaps due to the number of events taking place—whether there is indeed enough awareness of the gravity of the current state of the relationship between Turkey and Israel. Strenuous diplomatic activity is required, mainly behind the scenes, to calm the tensions between the parties. Israel is dealing with enough fronts, so it should make every effort to contain the provocative statements on the part of Ankara as far as possible.
The threat by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who said that just as Turkey acted militarily in Karabakh and Libya, “it will do the same to Israel,” is a worrying escalation. Although the chances of the threat’s realization still seem low, it must be remembered that Turkey has a UAV base in northern Cyprus, as well as a significant fleet with diverse capabilities.
Erdoğan’s statement can be attributed to three main factors. First, significant internal pressure within Turkey to escalate measures against Israel, a pressure that already bore fruit when Turkey announced a full economic embargo on Israel in early May. Secondly, the growing Turkish frustration with the continuation of the war in Gaza and the possibility of an expanded war between Israel and Lebanon as well, together with the fact that Turkey has a marginal influence on the course of events. Finally, since the beginning of the war, Erdoğan has stated that Israel has expansionist intentions beyond what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon and that it also threatens Turkey, thereby giving expression to the conspiracy theories that exist among the Turkish public. Together with all these elements, we must also note the growing influence of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, previously the head of the Turkish intelligence organization, who is known for his pro-Iranian stance. Since the beginning of the war, Turkish reactions to events are increasingly aligning with the Shia axis.
The rhetorical battles between decision-makers in Israel and Erdoğan, and in particular tweets by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, contribute to the worsening of the crisis and there is no indication that they are leading to restraint on the Turkish side. Israel must involve additional players, first and foremost the United States, to respond to the Turkish threat. No western player has an interest in seeing Turkey, which is a member of NATO, militarily confront Israel. There was no significant American response to Turkey’s decision to impose an economic embargo on Israel and it is not clear—perhaps due to the number of events taking place—whether there is indeed enough awareness of the gravity of the current state of the relationship between Turkey and Israel. Strenuous diplomatic activity is required, mainly behind the scenes, to calm the tensions between the parties. Israel is dealing with enough fronts, so it should make every effort to contain the provocative statements on the part of Ankara as far as possible.