The fires in the north come in the wake of an ongoing escalation in the war of attrition that Hezbollah has been waging against Israel in the northern arena for almost eight months. In May, the number of Hezbollah attacks reached a new record in both scope and quality. In parallel, the IDF’s increased activity has exacted a heavy price from Hezbollah, which is suffering severe losses in personnel, weapons, and infrastructure, as well as from the residents of southern Lebanon. But this doesn’t divert Nasrallah from his ambition to maximize his achievements against Israel, while at the same time exhausting the IDF, the Israeli public, and especially the evacuated residents of the north. For the time being, Hezbollah is sticking to the connection it created between ending the fighting in Gaza and ceasing the fighting in the north and it seems that it intends to persist with the attrition strategy it has chosen.
In this situation, Israel has two main options. One is to continue the mutual skirmishes, while trying to inflict as much damage as possible on Hezbollah without being dragged into a full-scale war. This is until a ceasefire in Gaza takes place, which apparently will lead to an end to the fighting in the north and allow the residents of the north to return to their homes. The second option is to initiate a military operation, which will apparently lead to a large-scale war in the north.
In recent weeks, there have been increasing voices in Israel calling to expand the campaign in the north, strengthening the public’s assessment that stability and security on the Lebanese border cannot be achieved without a full-scale war. Nasrallah, who boasts about his familiarity with the Israeli system, mistakenly thinks that Israel isn’t prepared for a full-scale war and is walking on a tightrope, without realizing that his insistence on continuing to attack Israel as he is currently doing could lead him to that large-scale war, in which he isn’t interested.
The fires in the north come in the wake of an ongoing escalation in the war of attrition that Hezbollah has been waging against Israel in the northern arena for almost eight months. In May, the number of Hezbollah attacks reached a new record in both scope and quality. In parallel, the IDF’s increased activity has exacted a heavy price from Hezbollah, which is suffering severe losses in personnel, weapons, and infrastructure, as well as from the residents of southern Lebanon. But this doesn’t divert Nasrallah from his ambition to maximize his achievements against Israel, while at the same time exhausting the IDF, the Israeli public, and especially the evacuated residents of the north. For the time being, Hezbollah is sticking to the connection it created between ending the fighting in Gaza and ceasing the fighting in the north and it seems that it intends to persist with the attrition strategy it has chosen.
In this situation, Israel has two main options. One is to continue the mutual skirmishes, while trying to inflict as much damage as possible on Hezbollah without being dragged into a full-scale war. This is until a ceasefire in Gaza takes place, which apparently will lead to an end to the fighting in the north and allow the residents of the north to return to their homes. The second option is to initiate a military operation, which will apparently lead to a large-scale war in the north.
In recent weeks, there have been increasing voices in Israel calling to expand the campaign in the north, strengthening the public’s assessment that stability and security on the Lebanese border cannot be achieved without a full-scale war. Nasrallah, who boasts about his familiarity with the Israeli system, mistakenly thinks that Israel isn’t prepared for a full-scale war and is walking on a tightrope, without realizing that his insistence on continuing to attack Israel as he is currently doing could lead him to that large-scale war, in which he isn’t interested.