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Home Posts The Fall of Assad’s Regime: Between Risks and Opportunities

The Fall of Assad’s Regime: Between Risks and Opportunities
Carmit Valensi
8 December, 2024

The rebels’ declaration of the overthrow of Assad’s regime after 54 years of rule opens a new chapter in Syrian history. It’s likely that Syria will enter a transitional period characterized by instability and power struggles, which could lead to several scenarios: a fragmented Syria divided into zones controlled by different power factions engaged in frequent conflicts; an agreement on a federal structure; or the rise of a new regime under a unified Syrian framework. Each of these scenarios entails a significant blow to the Axis of Resistance led by Iran, at least in the foreseeable future.

Assad’s rapid collapse stems from the lack of effective support from his allies in the Axis of Resistance. The Syrian army, despite intensive rebuilding, proved weak and dysfunctional, and Russia, having reduced its presence to focus on the coastal area housing its military bases, failed to provide meaningful protection for Assad’s regime.

While the recent developments signal instability and may lead to a prolonged period of chaos and violence in Syria, posing a security challenge for Israel, the current situation could also serve Israel’s interests. It could push back Iranian influence in Syria and prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its capabilities in Lebanon. In other words, Assad’s fall could sever Syria from the Axis of Resistance, further undermining its status and functionality.

Despite concerns over the rise of extremist elements near the border and the lack of a clear authority in charge, the military capabilities of the rebels, in their various forms, aren’t comparable to those of Iran and its proxies. Alongside bolstering Israel’s readiness to counter threats along its northern border, it’s advisable to deepen dialogue with relevant actors in the Syrian arena—state and non-state alike—to better understand Syria’s trajectory and potentially influence its future in a way that aligns with Israeli interests.

Topics: Syria
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  • Research

    • Topics
      • Israel and the Global Powers
      • Israel-United States Relations
      • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
      • Russia
      • Europe
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
      • Iran
      • Lebanon and Hezbollah
      • Syria
      • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
      • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
      • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
      • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
      • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
      • Turkey
      • Egypt
      • Jordan
      • Israel’s National Security Policy
      • Military and Strategic Affairs
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      • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
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      • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
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