Yoram Schweitzer

In light of the delayed Iranian response to the assassination of Haniyeh, it is possible that Iran is planning to exact a price from Israel in the international arena. How should we prepare for the challenge?

Will the “war of attrition,” which has continued already for half a year on Israel’s northern border, expand into a full-scale war?

Casualties, tens of thousands of evacuees, and serious property damage – since October 8, in parallel to the war in Gaza, there has been ongoing fighting along the northern border. The fighting has been at high intensity, but has remained under the threshold of an all-out war. Despite the heavy price exacted of Hezbollah so far, an end to the organization’s belligerence does not appear on the horizon. How should Israel act?

Joining both Israel’s internal crisis and Hezbollah’s increasing provocations along the northern border, there are calls in Lebanon to engage in negotiations with Israel over the land border between the two countries. How should Israel approach this dilemma? How should it work to strengthen its deterrence against the Shiite organization, but not be dragged into a war it does not want?

Ramadan 2023 will be remembered as a month in which Palestinians engaged in more hostile activity, including along the Lebanese border, alongside increased boldness by Nasrallah. To be sure, Hezbollah is still deterred, but a sense of false confidence makes it less wary of provocative action against Israel that could lead to escalation. How should Israel act in order to strengthen its eroding deterrence along the Lebanese border?

2022 marked 40 years since Hezbollah’s establishment and 30 years since Nasrallah became the leader of the organization. Over the years Hezbollah has developed from a classic terrorist organization into a multifaceted and multi-identity organization that is a military force with conventional capabilities and the spearhead of the Shiite “axis of resistance.” Throughout these years, and especially since the Second Lebanon War (2006), the organization has gained military strength but refrained from exercising its offensive capabilities against Israel; its activity is driven by the goal of maintaining and consolidating its balance of deterrence with Israel, in the interest of avoiding deterioration into another full-scale war. This article examines the elements that have shaped the “deterrence equation” between Hezbollah and Israel, which combines kinetic military activity and cognitive warfare, its gradual development over the course of the 40 years of conflict, and the nature of the current balance of deterrence; this is the background to assess how Israel might best deal with the challenge posed by the organization. The article contends that the balance of deterrence is rooted in Hezbollah’s origins and evolution and constitutes a central component of the organization’s current strategy. However, given Nasrallah’s tendency to take risks and the changing regional reality, this does not guarantee the prevention of a future large-scale conflict between the organization and the IDF, which could develop into a multi-arena war.