The IDF’s ground entry to dismantle Hezbollah’s military presence along the border, beginning on the night of September 30, after a series of successful operations to eliminate Hezbollah’s leaders and damage its military capabilities, marked a turning point in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and changed the face of the war.
Hezbollah, which for almost a year and in coordination with Iran, has adopted the strategy of a war of attrition to weaken Israel as a “support front” for the Palestinians, is now being dragged into conducting an all-out war against Israel at a time and under circumstances that are not convenient for it.
The IDF’s actions caused significant damage to Hezbollah, which, according to Israeli security sources, lost about two-thirds of its entire arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles and rockets. However, Hezbollah, with tens of thousands of regular and reserve military operatives, has not disappeared and continues to fight for its survival using all the remaining means at its disposal.
After the confusion caused by the severe damage to Hezbollah’s founding generation and senior command chain, it appears the organization has managed to regain its footing. Although Hezbollah has stopped reporting the number of its dead and does not reveal the identities of its senior officials’ replacements, it is making the necessary adjustments to operate under the logic of a unified command, now overseen by Iran. In practice, Hezbollah members continue daily to confront IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, primarily through long-range fire, after most of the Radwan Force operatives retreated. They also launch hundreds of rockets, missiles, and dozens of UAVs at military and civilian targets in Israel, regularly increasing the range of these attacks—from the northern areas, up to Haifa, and more recently, beyond Haifa into central Israel.
At the same time, the IDF continues to succeed in its operations in southern Lebanon, while exposing and neutralizing weapons depots, above ground and in the tunnels beneath it, as well as Hezbollah’s plans and capabilities to conquer the Galilee “at will.” In doing so, the IDF is making progress toward the goal set for it by the political echelon: to create a change in the security reality that will allow the return of the evacuated residents in the north to their homes.
It seems the IDF will need a few more weeks to complete its operations that are focused near the border with Israel.
Given the IDF’s progress toward its goal and the increasing calls in Lebanon for a ceasefire (currently from all political parties except Hezbollah, which remains ambiguous on the issue), Israel should now begin formulating its exit strategy, while continuing its military efforts to weaken Hezbollah and clear southern Lebanon of its military presence. An exit strategy is essential to avoid getting entangled in a prolonged and unnecessary war in the north, The exit strategy should translate military achievements into a political settlement—separate from the war in Gaza—with two key components: establishing a new security regime in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah’s military buildup in the region, and securing guarantees that preserve the IDF’s freedom to act against any violations that threaten Israeli civilians.
The IDF’s ground entry to dismantle Hezbollah’s military presence along the border, beginning on the night of September 30, after a series of successful operations to eliminate Hezbollah’s leaders and damage its military capabilities, marked a turning point in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and changed the face of the war.
Hezbollah, which for almost a year and in coordination with Iran, has adopted the strategy of a war of attrition to weaken Israel as a “support front” for the Palestinians, is now being dragged into conducting an all-out war against Israel at a time and under circumstances that are not convenient for it.
The IDF’s actions caused significant damage to Hezbollah, which, according to Israeli security sources, lost about two-thirds of its entire arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles and rockets. However, Hezbollah, with tens of thousands of regular and reserve military operatives, has not disappeared and continues to fight for its survival using all the remaining means at its disposal.
After the confusion caused by the severe damage to Hezbollah’s founding generation and senior command chain, it appears the organization has managed to regain its footing. Although Hezbollah has stopped reporting the number of its dead and does not reveal the identities of its senior officials’ replacements, it is making the necessary adjustments to operate under the logic of a unified command, now overseen by Iran. In practice, Hezbollah members continue daily to confront IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, primarily through long-range fire, after most of the Radwan Force operatives retreated. They also launch hundreds of rockets, missiles, and dozens of UAVs at military and civilian targets in Israel, regularly increasing the range of these attacks—from the northern areas, up to Haifa, and more recently, beyond Haifa into central Israel.
At the same time, the IDF continues to succeed in its operations in southern Lebanon, while exposing and neutralizing weapons depots, above ground and in the tunnels beneath it, as well as Hezbollah’s plans and capabilities to conquer the Galilee “at will.” In doing so, the IDF is making progress toward the goal set for it by the political echelon: to create a change in the security reality that will allow the return of the evacuated residents in the north to their homes.
It seems the IDF will need a few more weeks to complete its operations that are focused near the border with Israel.
Given the IDF’s progress toward its goal and the increasing calls in Lebanon for a ceasefire (currently from all political parties except Hezbollah, which remains ambiguous on the issue), Israel should now begin formulating its exit strategy, while continuing its military efforts to weaken Hezbollah and clear southern Lebanon of its military presence. An exit strategy is essential to avoid getting entangled in a prolonged and unnecessary war in the north, The exit strategy should translate military achievements into a political settlement—separate from the war in Gaza—with two key components: establishing a new security regime in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah’s military buildup in the region, and securing guarantees that preserve the IDF’s freedom to act against any violations that threaten Israeli civilians.