It is fair to assume that the whole world is by now well aware of the barbaric attack on Israeli civilians perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and cognizant of the atrocities that were committed in Kibbutzim, in a music festival, in peaceful villages along the Gaza border, while killing with unprecedented ferocity, raping, kidnapping, and thus evoking memories of the Holocaust.
In view of such despicable acts, the worst in recent memory, Israel is now determined to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist organization, one that is entirely devoted not to improve the fate of the Palestinians in Gaza, but to destroy Israel together with Iran and its proxies, particularly Hezbollah.
Many in Israel thought that Hamas had turned pragmatic, that as the de facto government in Gaza it would gradually turn away from its declared objective of destroying Israel, and instead dedicate itself to the wellbeing of the two million Palestinians living there. Such a premise proved to be utterly wrong, and it caused Israel to play in Hamas’ hands: we allowed more and more workers from Gaza to enter Israel and earn much higher salaries, we allowed Qatar to subsidize them with millions of dollars, and we allowed increasing volumes of goods to enter Gaza.
The fateful attack on October 7 showed that we in Israel had deceived ourselves, and that such self-deception grew into a monumental conceptual failure that blinded us, and made the horrendous attack possible. In fact, Hamas was able to prepare meticulously for its atrocities, relying heavily on our misunderstanding of its true character.
This late realization leads to an unavoidable conclusion: there cannot be any other outcome to this war but the total elimination of Hamas as a terrorist organization. Nothing else will do. Incidentally, the Sunni Arab countries in the region are looking very closely at Israel, to make sure that we succeed in doing precisely that – for these countries, Hamas, as well as like-minded Islamic organizations in the region, are not less dangerous. Furthermore, as long as Hamas is a factor, no positive development can happen in the Middle East: neither further normalization, nor a common front vis-à-vis Iran.
Achieving the goal of eliminating Hamas is a very difficult task, because the terrorists are embedded in the civilian population in Gaza, which they use as a human shield. The IDF is devoting great efforts to try to minimize the suffering of the civilian population in Gaza. However, Hamas desperately wants the pictures of civilian casualties, in order to use them as a weapon in the arena of international opinion.
Even though Israel’s military action on the ground has not yet started in earnest and the war may take long, it is important to try to gain at this initial stage some provisional insights, and to envision what could be the end game.
First, the Hamas attack proves, once again, that Israel does not have a conflict with the Palestinian people, but rather with Palestinian terrorism. This became clear already after the Oslo accords, when suicide Palestinian terrorists effectively sabotaged the Oslo process, but unfortunately, we did not really learn the lesson then. Now, though, it is crystal clear: in order to be able eventually to make peace with the Palestinians (which should be our ultimate goal), Palestinian terrorism has to be totally eradicated.
Second, I am convinced that this terrible war could become a turning point towards a more promising era in the Middle East, similar to what happened after the Yom Kippur War, fifty years ago. The belligerent Arab countries understood then that even in the “best of cases” from their point of view, that is, a dramatic surprise attack on two fronts and an initial stunning military success, it turned out to be impossible to defeat Israel on the battlefield. The alternative had to be to recognize Israel, undertake the diplomatic route, and make peace, as Egypt did, as Jordan did. Unfortunately, Syria did not.
The militant Palestinian organizations will hopefully learn now the same lesson, i.e., that even after taking us by total surprise following a year of internal dissent and perceived weakness in Israel, and even after committing the most unspeakable atrocities, Israel will never be brought to its knees. Quite to the contrary, Hamas and its acolytes will be dealt a decisive blow. If the recalcitrant militants internalize that lesson, as Sadat did, this war may lead to negotiations and a process of accommodation that may eventually bring a lasting peace. To repeat, that should be the goal.
Third, such a process should be part of the drawing of a new regional geopolitical architecture, in which the Sunni Arab countries and Israel will align together with the US and the West, and confront the opposing bloc, comprising Iran, Russia and their autocratic followers.
For those embryonic possibilities to become a reality, Western democracies should above all give Israel the chance to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist organization, which is the sine qua non for the new Middle East to arise from the rubble. Furthermore, they should help in filling the dangerous vacuum that would arise once Hamas is eliminated, as well as partaking in the reconstruction of Gaza. Last but not least, every nation that adheres to the basic tenets of human rights should do its utmost to help free the Israeli hostages from the hands of their tormentors – the world cannot tolerate such barbarism.
It is fair to assume that the whole world is by now well aware of the barbaric attack on Israeli civilians perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and cognizant of the atrocities that were committed in Kibbutzim, in a music festival, in peaceful villages along the Gaza border, while killing with unprecedented ferocity, raping, kidnapping, and thus evoking memories of the Holocaust.
In view of such despicable acts, the worst in recent memory, Israel is now determined to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist organization, one that is entirely devoted not to improve the fate of the Palestinians in Gaza, but to destroy Israel together with Iran and its proxies, particularly Hezbollah.
Many in Israel thought that Hamas had turned pragmatic, that as the de facto government in Gaza it would gradually turn away from its declared objective of destroying Israel, and instead dedicate itself to the wellbeing of the two million Palestinians living there. Such a premise proved to be utterly wrong, and it caused Israel to play in Hamas’ hands: we allowed more and more workers from Gaza to enter Israel and earn much higher salaries, we allowed Qatar to subsidize them with millions of dollars, and we allowed increasing volumes of goods to enter Gaza.
The fateful attack on October 7 showed that we in Israel had deceived ourselves, and that such self-deception grew into a monumental conceptual failure that blinded us, and made the horrendous attack possible. In fact, Hamas was able to prepare meticulously for its atrocities, relying heavily on our misunderstanding of its true character.
This late realization leads to an unavoidable conclusion: there cannot be any other outcome to this war but the total elimination of Hamas as a terrorist organization. Nothing else will do. Incidentally, the Sunni Arab countries in the region are looking very closely at Israel, to make sure that we succeed in doing precisely that – for these countries, Hamas, as well as like-minded Islamic organizations in the region, are not less dangerous. Furthermore, as long as Hamas is a factor, no positive development can happen in the Middle East: neither further normalization, nor a common front vis-à-vis Iran.
Achieving the goal of eliminating Hamas is a very difficult task, because the terrorists are embedded in the civilian population in Gaza, which they use as a human shield. The IDF is devoting great efforts to try to minimize the suffering of the civilian population in Gaza. However, Hamas desperately wants the pictures of civilian casualties, in order to use them as a weapon in the arena of international opinion.
Even though Israel’s military action on the ground has not yet started in earnest and the war may take long, it is important to try to gain at this initial stage some provisional insights, and to envision what could be the end game.
First, the Hamas attack proves, once again, that Israel does not have a conflict with the Palestinian people, but rather with Palestinian terrorism. This became clear already after the Oslo accords, when suicide Palestinian terrorists effectively sabotaged the Oslo process, but unfortunately, we did not really learn the lesson then. Now, though, it is crystal clear: in order to be able eventually to make peace with the Palestinians (which should be our ultimate goal), Palestinian terrorism has to be totally eradicated.
Second, I am convinced that this terrible war could become a turning point towards a more promising era in the Middle East, similar to what happened after the Yom Kippur War, fifty years ago. The belligerent Arab countries understood then that even in the “best of cases” from their point of view, that is, a dramatic surprise attack on two fronts and an initial stunning military success, it turned out to be impossible to defeat Israel on the battlefield. The alternative had to be to recognize Israel, undertake the diplomatic route, and make peace, as Egypt did, as Jordan did. Unfortunately, Syria did not.
The militant Palestinian organizations will hopefully learn now the same lesson, i.e., that even after taking us by total surprise following a year of internal dissent and perceived weakness in Israel, and even after committing the most unspeakable atrocities, Israel will never be brought to its knees. Quite to the contrary, Hamas and its acolytes will be dealt a decisive blow. If the recalcitrant militants internalize that lesson, as Sadat did, this war may lead to negotiations and a process of accommodation that may eventually bring a lasting peace. To repeat, that should be the goal.
Third, such a process should be part of the drawing of a new regional geopolitical architecture, in which the Sunni Arab countries and Israel will align together with the US and the West, and confront the opposing bloc, comprising Iran, Russia and their autocratic followers.
For those embryonic possibilities to become a reality, Western democracies should above all give Israel the chance to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist organization, which is the sine qua non for the new Middle East to arise from the rubble. Furthermore, they should help in filling the dangerous vacuum that would arise once Hamas is eliminated, as well as partaking in the reconstruction of Gaza. Last but not least, every nation that adheres to the basic tenets of human rights should do its utmost to help free the Israeli hostages from the hands of their tormentors – the world cannot tolerate such barbarism.