Tensions in the north are increasing in tandem with the war in Gaza and have led to an escalation in the military conflict along the Lebanese border. The escalation now mainly comprises exchanges of fire on the Lebanese border, involving Hezbollah and Palestinian elements, and attempts to infiltrate Israel by Palestinian elements. There have been casualties on both sides.
The opening move was by Hezbollah, which broke the relative quite in the sector on the second day of the war (October 8). The organization launched rockets toward Mount Dov – its first military operation, which it publicly defined as a step to identify with the Palestinian struggle. This move led to a response by the IDF, which also deviated from the familiar pattern, when it chose to attack Hezbollah's positions and outposts along the border. On the part of Hezbollah, the shooting is directed at military targets in Israeli territory, emphasizing the organization's interest in preserving a symmetrical response equation in order to maintain the balance of deterrence vis-à-vis the IDF. This occurs while creating the link between the southern front and the northern arena, with the threat that if Israel crosses “red lines” (without defining these red lines), a more significant response is expected on the northern front.
At this stage, it appears that despite the escalation, Hezbollah is relatively cautious and does not wish now to engage in a broad conflict with the IDF. New restraining factors that will affect the organization's decision making, in addition to those familiar from the past, include the unequivocal standing of the United States on the side of Israel, including President Biden's indication in his speech (October 10) about American willingness to assist with the fighting, if another front is opened in the north; and the deterrence created by the destruction of entire neighborhoods in the Gaza Strip by IAF strikes in recent days, which is an example of what can happen in Lebanon if Israel is called on to act in this way. The current full military deployment on the Israeli side, which is prepared for any possible scenario, contributes to this as well.
In any case, it is still too early to predict how the situation will evolve. Yet it seems that the longer the war in the south takes, the greater the likelihood that the conflict will expand to the northern arena as well.
Tensions in the north are increasing in tandem with the war in Gaza and have led to an escalation in the military conflict along the Lebanese border. The escalation now mainly comprises exchanges of fire on the Lebanese border, involving Hezbollah and Palestinian elements, and attempts to infiltrate Israel by Palestinian elements. There have been casualties on both sides.
The opening move was by Hezbollah, which broke the relative quite in the sector on the second day of the war (October 8). The organization launched rockets toward Mount Dov – its first military operation, which it publicly defined as a step to identify with the Palestinian struggle. This move led to a response by the IDF, which also deviated from the familiar pattern, when it chose to attack Hezbollah's positions and outposts along the border. On the part of Hezbollah, the shooting is directed at military targets in Israeli territory, emphasizing the organization's interest in preserving a symmetrical response equation in order to maintain the balance of deterrence vis-à-vis the IDF. This occurs while creating the link between the southern front and the northern arena, with the threat that if Israel crosses “red lines” (without defining these red lines), a more significant response is expected on the northern front.
At this stage, it appears that despite the escalation, Hezbollah is relatively cautious and does not wish now to engage in a broad conflict with the IDF. New restraining factors that will affect the organization's decision making, in addition to those familiar from the past, include the unequivocal standing of the United States on the side of Israel, including President Biden's indication in his speech (October 10) about American willingness to assist with the fighting, if another front is opened in the north; and the deterrence created by the destruction of entire neighborhoods in the Gaza Strip by IAF strikes in recent days, which is an example of what can happen in Lebanon if Israel is called on to act in this way. The current full military deployment on the Israeli side, which is prepared for any possible scenario, contributes to this as well.
In any case, it is still too early to predict how the situation will evolve. Yet it seems that the longer the war in the south takes, the greater the likelihood that the conflict will expand to the northern arena as well.