On the (cautious) assumption that the containment/holding phase of the terrorist attack in the Gaza envelope has ended, and the area is under the control of the IDF and the security forces, the main question for the coming days is of course “what now.” I do not want to refer here to the ultimate goal of the war – I agree with INSS Executive Director Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg that in many ways, what was before cannot continue. Rather, I will relate to the parameters of “how.”
Today the parameters are different from what we knew in the past. The global legitimacy for any type of action is unprecedented, given the unfortunate situation that was created by the horrific savagery of the Hamas attack. The same picture, reproduced many times over, also exists in the Israeli public. This is not a blind desire for revenge: the inhuman nature of the enemy requires us to behave as any country in our place would – with a disproportionate and unprecedented degree of power, which will make it clear to the entire Middle East that there will simply not be a massacre of Israelis, because the punishment will not be of corresponding proportion, but far beyond.
On the other hand, those who plan the campaign must take into account that the public in Israel, which supports any military move, is swayed by the systemic collapse we experienced on Saturday – which exerted far greater and more severe influence than what occurred even in the Yom Kippur failure. The goals and modus operandi that will be chosen must be examined rigorously from a realistic perspective regarding the ability to execute them in the complicated international system, not only due to the danger of multi-arena conflagration. Hurling the IDF into unclear goals that are difficult to realize, as was the case in the Second Lebanon War, or using it in a cumbersome manner, as was the case in Operation Defensive Shield, will only further undermine the public's faith in the system that is responsible for its security.
This is a more complex job than ever before, and it requires the operational and political levels to think deeply and soberly, free from political biases, and to display smart and confidence-inspiring leadership.
On the (cautious) assumption that the containment/holding phase of the terrorist attack in the Gaza envelope has ended, and the area is under the control of the IDF and the security forces, the main question for the coming days is of course “what now.” I do not want to refer here to the ultimate goal of the war – I agree with INSS Executive Director Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg that in many ways, what was before cannot continue. Rather, I will relate to the parameters of “how.”
Today the parameters are different from what we knew in the past. The global legitimacy for any type of action is unprecedented, given the unfortunate situation that was created by the horrific savagery of the Hamas attack. The same picture, reproduced many times over, also exists in the Israeli public. This is not a blind desire for revenge: the inhuman nature of the enemy requires us to behave as any country in our place would – with a disproportionate and unprecedented degree of power, which will make it clear to the entire Middle East that there will simply not be a massacre of Israelis, because the punishment will not be of corresponding proportion, but far beyond.
On the other hand, those who plan the campaign must take into account that the public in Israel, which supports any military move, is swayed by the systemic collapse we experienced on Saturday – which exerted far greater and more severe influence than what occurred even in the Yom Kippur failure. The goals and modus operandi that will be chosen must be examined rigorously from a realistic perspective regarding the ability to execute them in the complicated international system, not only due to the danger of multi-arena conflagration. Hurling the IDF into unclear goals that are difficult to realize, as was the case in the Second Lebanon War, or using it in a cumbersome manner, as was the case in Operation Defensive Shield, will only further undermine the public's faith in the system that is responsible for its security.
This is a more complex job than ever before, and it requires the operational and political levels to think deeply and soberly, free from political biases, and to display smart and confidence-inspiring leadership.