Posts

The agreement between Israel and Lebanon is an important milestone in the relations between the two countries, which have been in an active and ongoing conflict for decades. The agreement has advantages for both parties and was made possible thanks to the convergence of their interests and their willingness to compromise in the current limited window of opportunity. From Israel's point of view, beyond the benefits in the economic realm and the possibility that the agreement will contribute to peace and security at least in the maritime space, it is especially important to point to positive trends at the strategic level in light of the agreement on three main levels:

• Relations between Israel and Lebanon: Demarcating a maritime border line between the countries (except for the 5 km adjacent to the coast) in fact signifies Lebanon's recognition of Israel's existence. To be sure, Lebanon's demands (in the spirit of Nasrallah's position) that the negotiations be indirect (the agreement is actually an exchange of letters with the United States) and not include elements of normalization were answered. However, the agreement still reflects a fundamental change in the bilateral relations: it dispels Hezbollah's claims that Israel is an illegitimate entity that should not be recognized and that action must be taken to destroy it, and may help change the image of Israel among the Lebanese public.
• Hezbollah's status and influence in Lebanon: The approval of this agreement by the Lebanese leadership proves that Hezbollah is not omnipotent in Lebanon. It is true that Hezbollah was privy to the events as they unfolded and influenced the decision making, but the agreement clearly includes elements that are difficult for it and that it wanted to avoid. Thus, Nasrallah was also forced to compromise in view of Lebanon's dire economic situation and the heightened internal criticism toward him, and in an attempt to improve his status, to content himself with the argument that it was his threats that contributed to the achievement of the agreement.

• Iran: The agreement reflects another failure in its confrontation with Israel, given its clear opposition to any possible agreement with Israel – the "little Satan" – under the auspices of the US – the "Great Satan." In addition, the agreement is a stumbling block to its efforts, led proudly by Hezbollah, to expand its foothold in Lebanon. Beyond that, it tightens Lebanon's relationship with the West (mainly the US and France) in complete contrast to the vision of Hezbollah and Iran, which are interested in Lebanon's inclusion in the Shiite axis.