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Home Posts Will the Ceasefire Lead to Normalization with Saudi Arabia?

Will the Ceasefire Lead to Normalization with Saudi Arabia?
Yoel Guzansky
2 February, 2025

Since the war began, Saudi Arabia has intensified its tone toward Israel, and public messages from Riyadh have become critical, even venomous. The peak came in November of last year, when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the strongman of the kingdom, accused Israel of committing “collective genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza. Such statements from the de facto leader of the Saudi kingdom had not been heard before and seemed to contradict some of his previous statements regarding Israel before the war.

The Saudis have not only intensified their tone, but they have also become defenders of the Palestinian cause as they had never been before, seeking to capitalize on the anti-Israeli sentiment in the region. Along with the criticism, they also seek leadership roles in the Palestinian context and initiated an international “alliance” aimed at promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state. For the Saudis, image and perception are as important as content—they want to be credited with the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state.

Since the onset of the war, the kingdom has called for an immediate ceasefire, and when it was achieved, the Saudi Foreign Ministry welcomed it, adding that the kingdom hopes that it will end the “Israeli barbarism and aggression” in Gaza. Initially, the kingdom had called for an IDF withdrawal from Gaza, but recently, it added the demand for withdrawal “from all Arab territories,” referring to positions held by the IDF in southern Lebanon and the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. In doing so, Saudi Arabia is aligning itself with other Arab states.

The kingdom is interested in normalization with Israel, provided that it secures American incentives that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. However, since the war began, it has publicly linked normalization or integration to the establishment of a Palestinian state, a stance it had not taken before the war.

Looking at the glass half full, Saudi Arabia’s embrace of the Palestinian issue positive, as it appropriates the issue for itself, making it more difficult for radical actors to use it to gain sympathy. The Saudis also clearly link the ceasefire to the normalization process, indicating that the ceasefire is a necessary condition and serves as the beginning of a possible normalization process.

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, the Saudi Foreign Minister stated that the kingdom has a clear interest in its full implementation and emphasized that it is the responsibility of all parties in the region to uphold it, sending a clear message to Hamas and others not to undermine the agreement. Under the Trump administration, it may be easier for Riyadh to adjust its position on the Palestinian issue; however, certain conditions are essential for them, primarily the completion of the ceasefire, the full withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, and the initiation of a reconstruction process.

President Trump’s policy toward Iran will also affect the kingdom. An improvement in Saudi Arabia’s strategic position would allow it to take risks on other issues. The more resolute Trump is against Iran and prevents it from advancing its nuclear program by any means, the easier it will be for the Saudis—and possibly for Israel—to show greater flexibility in the Palestinian context.

Topics: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
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