A month after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, several leaders around the world are already emerging as beneficiaries of his political approach—among them, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
First, Trump does not promote liberal values as Biden did, nor does he intend to pressure Ankara to protect democracy in Turkey. Erdoğan appears to have already internalized this. In recent weeks, there has been a noticeable escalation in the suppression of the Turkish opposition.
The tectonic shifts driven by Trump in the global system, and Europe’s growing realization that it cannot rely on American security support, have strengthened Turkey’s position—along with that of its president. The Turkish military, the largest in the region, and Turkey’s defense industry, in which Ankara has invested heavily in recent years, are now viewed by the Europeans as critical assets to increasing their military strength. As a result, within weeks, Turkey has become an essential partner for European countries.
The shift in Europe’s approach toward Turkey is reflected in bilateral visits and statements emphasizing the opening of a new chapter in Turkish–European relations. Although the distrust between the two sides still exists, and many challenges may hinder cooperation between Turkey and the European Union, Europe has shown in the past a willingness to compromise for the sake of realpolitik.
In 2016, the European Union signed an agreement with Ankara in which Turkey committed to preventing refugee crossings into Europe in exchange for financial aid—despite European reservations about Turkey’s political situation and Erdoğan’s assertive foreign policy. In 2025, as Europe faces a deeper security crisis, it is likely once again to waive some of its demands and values to reach agreements with Erdoğan.
The rise in Turkey’s importance to the Europeans and the strengthening of Erdoğan’s position—both domestically and internationally—are occurring at a time when Turkey–Israel relations are in crisis. Points of friction between the two countries have grown, partly due to the situation in Syria. This reality poses a challenge for Jerusalem and highlights the need to understand the complex interplay between the different arenas. Ironically, Trump—considered a friend of Israel—indirectly creates a security challenge for Israel in the form of a stronger Erdoğan.
A month after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, several leaders around the world are already emerging as beneficiaries of his political approach—among them, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
First, Trump does not promote liberal values as Biden did, nor does he intend to pressure Ankara to protect democracy in Turkey. Erdoğan appears to have already internalized this. In recent weeks, there has been a noticeable escalation in the suppression of the Turkish opposition.
The tectonic shifts driven by Trump in the global system, and Europe’s growing realization that it cannot rely on American security support, have strengthened Turkey’s position—along with that of its president. The Turkish military, the largest in the region, and Turkey’s defense industry, in which Ankara has invested heavily in recent years, are now viewed by the Europeans as critical assets to increasing their military strength. As a result, within weeks, Turkey has become an essential partner for European countries.
The shift in Europe’s approach toward Turkey is reflected in bilateral visits and statements emphasizing the opening of a new chapter in Turkish–European relations. Although the distrust between the two sides still exists, and many challenges may hinder cooperation between Turkey and the European Union, Europe has shown in the past a willingness to compromise for the sake of realpolitik.
In 2016, the European Union signed an agreement with Ankara in which Turkey committed to preventing refugee crossings into Europe in exchange for financial aid—despite European reservations about Turkey’s political situation and Erdoğan’s assertive foreign policy. In 2025, as Europe faces a deeper security crisis, it is likely once again to waive some of its demands and values to reach agreements with Erdoğan.
The rise in Turkey’s importance to the Europeans and the strengthening of Erdoğan’s position—both domestically and internationally—are occurring at a time when Turkey–Israel relations are in crisis. Points of friction between the two countries have grown, partly due to the situation in Syria. This reality poses a challenge for Jerusalem and highlights the need to understand the complex interplay between the different arenas. Ironically, Trump—considered a friend of Israel—indirectly creates a security challenge for Israel in the form of a stronger Erdoğan.