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Home Posts The Elections in France: Surprise and Uncertainty

The Elections in France: Surprise and Uncertainty
Rémi Daniel
8 July, 2024

The results of the elections for the French National Assembly were a big surprise for all the analysts. Instead of a victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party (extreme right), the left bloc, whose largest party is that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (extreme left), came in first.

The results are more of a disappointment than a defeat for Le Pen’s party. While the party managed to almost double its number of delegates in the assembly, becoming the largest party in it, the bloc didn’t get the majority that it was promised in several polls, with the right-wing bloc becoming the third largest bloc, after the left and the center (led by President Macron).

The National Rally was harmed by the election system (by districts, in two rounds) and by the alliance between Macron and the left, according to which they did not put one candidate against the other in most districts, which resulted in the revival of the “Republican Front” and voters from different parties voting for a candidate who stands against the extreme right. The more rigorous media coverage of Le Pen’s candidates also revealed that efforts to transform the National Rally into a more moderate and professional party were not entirely successful, which scared off some voters.

Mélenchon’s campaign and the party’s achievements have shown that pro-Hamas and even antisemitic statements no longer make a party an “outcast” in the eyes of other parties or the French public. Mélenchon’s faction will indeed be a vocal force against Israel in the National Assembly, but its importance should not be overstated. The victory of the left is due to the success of more moderate parties than Mélenchon’s and many of the politicians who cooperated with him to defeat Le Pen already disapprove of a government alliance with him.

The new political reality, with three blocs, none of which has a majority, creates great uncertainty. Building a coalition is something that doesn’t go with the institutions or the political culture in France, and the differences between the parties are substantial.

When he dissolved the National Assembly a month ago, President Macron claimed he wanted to restore “clarity” to the French political system. Personally, his gamble turned out to be a partial success, in that he restrained Le Pen and managed to keep his party stronger than expected. But, instead of clarity, France is entering a political limbo from which it is not clear how it will emerge.

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