The sharp downward trend in suicide attacks worldwide, evident for several years, continued In 2022. In the past year, 31 suicide attacks were carried out (compared to 74 the previous year) – a decrease of about 58 percent. The attacks were carried out by 38 suicide bombers (compared to 91 in 2021), in which approximately 360 people were killed (compared to 805 the previous year), and approximately 900 were injured (compared to 1,480). In 2022 the attacks were carried out in 7 countries (compared to 17 countries last year). Most of the attacks occurred in Africa, with 16 of them (more than half) carried out in Somalia. Ten attacks occurred in South and Southeast Asia (5 in Pakistan, 4 in Afghanistan, and 1 in Indonesia) and 5 in the Middle East (3 in Syria, and 1 each in Saudi Arabia and Egypt). The Salafi-jihad organizations – al-Qaeda, ISIS, and their affiliates – were almost exclusively responsible for all the suicide attacks this year as well.
The downward trend in suicide attacks in recent years in general, and in the last year in particular, can be explained by several reasons:
- A decrease in the power of the central organizations that use this modus operandi, which is partly due to the loss of territories controlled by them and severe damage to their leadership (for example –this past year two ISIS leaders were killed, as well as al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri).
- The presence of foreign military forces in Muslim countries, which in the past encouraged the mobilization of the local population and foreign volunteers to fight against them, has been greatly reduced. In their place the suicide attacks have focused on the local Muslim authorities on the grounds they are infidels, or against rival ethnic and religious minorities. These adversaries are not sufficient for mass mobilization.
These reasons, along with improved deterrence activities by local security forces, sometimes with Western training and assistance, are presumably what led to the decision of organizations to shield their manpower and focus on other patterns of action.
In addition to its relatively high lethality, the use of suicide terrorism also had great symbolic value for the terrorist organizations, but it always constituted only a small percentage of their total activities. Despite the decline in the number of suicide attacks, their average level of lethality per attack still remains relatively high, and continues to be a deterrent to the affected population and global public opinion. It is difficult to estimate what could lead to a reversal in the downward trend of suicide attacks, but it is possible that a change in geopolitical circumstances, an invasion by a foreign Western army, the takeover of a large territory or state by jihadist terrorist organizations, or a deterioration in violent conflicts, on religious, ethnic, and racist grounds, can motivate terrorist organizations to exploit anew their inherent advantages in this mode of operation – and with increased intensity.
The report was written by researchers Yoram Schweitzer and Matan Ebgalion, with the assistance of Anat Shapira, Or Amini, and interns in the INSS Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict program – Tal Hershkovitz, Hadar Eldad, Ori Zion, Eli Ongiberg, and Inbar Marcini.
The sharp downward trend in suicide attacks worldwide, evident for several years, continued In 2022. In the past year, 31 suicide attacks were carried out (compared to 74 the previous year) – a decrease of about 58 percent. The attacks were carried out by 38 suicide bombers (compared to 91 in 2021), in which approximately 360 people were killed (compared to 805 the previous year), and approximately 900 were injured (compared to 1,480). In 2022 the attacks were carried out in 7 countries (compared to 17 countries last year). Most of the attacks occurred in Africa, with 16 of them (more than half) carried out in Somalia. Ten attacks occurred in South and Southeast Asia (5 in Pakistan, 4 in Afghanistan, and 1 in Indonesia) and 5 in the Middle East (3 in Syria, and 1 each in Saudi Arabia and Egypt). The Salafi-jihad organizations – al-Qaeda, ISIS, and their affiliates – were almost exclusively responsible for all the suicide attacks this year as well.
The downward trend in suicide attacks in recent years in general, and in the last year in particular, can be explained by several reasons:
These reasons, along with improved deterrence activities by local security forces, sometimes with Western training and assistance, are presumably what led to the decision of organizations to shield their manpower and focus on other patterns of action.
In addition to its relatively high lethality, the use of suicide terrorism also had great symbolic value for the terrorist organizations, but it always constituted only a small percentage of their total activities. Despite the decline in the number of suicide attacks, their average level of lethality per attack still remains relatively high, and continues to be a deterrent to the affected population and global public opinion. It is difficult to estimate what could lead to a reversal in the downward trend of suicide attacks, but it is possible that a change in geopolitical circumstances, an invasion by a foreign Western army, the takeover of a large territory or state by jihadist terrorist organizations, or a deterioration in violent conflicts, on religious, ethnic, and racist grounds, can motivate terrorist organizations to exploit anew their inherent advantages in this mode of operation – and with increased intensity.
The report was written by researchers Yoram Schweitzer and Matan Ebgalion, with the assistance of Anat Shapira, Or Amini, and interns in the INSS Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict program – Tal Hershkovitz, Hadar Eldad, Ori Zion, Eli Ongiberg, and Inbar Marcini.