Nasrallah’s “Civil War” Speech: An Effort to Strengthen Domestic Legitimacy and Deterrence against Israel | INSS
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Home Posts Nasrallah’s “Civil War” Speech: An Effort to Strengthen Domestic Legitimacy and Deterrence against Israel

Nasrallah’s “Civil War” Speech: An Effort to Strengthen Domestic Legitimacy and Deterrence against Israel
Orna Mizrahi
20 February, 2023
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The internal disagreements in Israel regarding judicial reform and the wave of Palestinian terrorism received extensive mention in the recent speech by Hezbollah’s Secretary General. Nasrallah portrayed these events as severe crises, created because of Israel's “current stupid government,” and suggested that they signal the imminent outbreak of a “civil war.” Nasrallah also expressed hope that Israel will not reach 80 years of existence.

In the speech it is evident that Nasrallah follows the events in Israel very closely, but as usual he presents his own interpretation, which does not necessarily reflect reality, but rather, a narrative that serves his needs. This helps him demonstrate a positive role in the defense of Lebanon in front of the country’s general public, bolster the “deterrence equation” vis-à-vis Israel, and tarnish the name of the US in front of the Lebanese public as responsible for dragging Lebanon into chaos. Against this backdrop is the ongoing deterioration in Lebanon, which is suffering from a complete economic collapse and a political vacuum. Hezbollah is also affected by the economic crisis, and in his speech, which dealt heavily with the situation in Lebanon, Nasrallah even acknowledged that “people around Hezbollah” are suffering. Moreover, all of Nasrallah's attempts to see the election of a new president to his liking have failed so far, and it is clear that Nasrallah is distressed by this.

As for the confrontation with Israel: despite the belligerence in his speech, it seems that Nasrallah’s rhetoric was intended mainly to preserve the “deterrence equation” with Israel and does not signal a change in direction at this time. This is also indicated by his reference to the gas agreement between Israel and Lebanon. In his speech, Nasrallah absurdly links the delay in gas production on the Lebanese side to the start of gas production in the Karish field and claims that if it turns out the corporation acting on behalf of Lebanon is dragging its feet, then he will not agree to the continuation of gas production in Karish – yet at the same time noted that the production of gas in Lebanon requires another 3-4 years.

Topics: Lebanon and Hezbollah
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  • Research

    • Topics
      • Israel and the Global Powers
      • Israel-United States Relations
      • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
      • Russia
      • Europe
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
      • Iran
      • Lebanon and Hezbollah
      • Syria
      • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
      • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
      • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
      • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
      • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
      • Turkey
      • Egypt
      • Jordan
      • Israel’s National Security Policy
      • Military and Strategic Affairs
      • Societal Resilience and the Israeli Society
      • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
      • Climate, Infrastructure and Energy
      • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
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