The magic number is 289 – the number of MPs required to control the 577-member French parliament. However, the unequivocal result of the two rounds of parliamentary elections in France is disappointing to President Emmanuel Macron. He himself won the presidential election for the second time last April, but his Ensemble party lost the absolute majority in parliament and will probably win only 234 seats, according to the polls at the end of the second round. In other words, it does not have an absolute majority. In order to continue to lead it will have to form a coalition, but with whom and at what cost?
The voter seems to have wanted to signal it does not want a complete centralized rule, which in fact prevailed for the past three decades. Its vote, therefore, prevents Macron from continuing to have complete control over the process of control and legislation in France. At the same time, it also increased the far right of Marine Le Pen to 85 seats in parliament – far beyond the minimum required from a party that wants to demand, for example, a no-confidence vote.
The second largest party is the New Popular Union, centered on the Socialist bloc, with an expected 149 seats. This is a very problematic coalition, especially if its leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon, continues as its head. Melenchon is a militant politician who will give a hard time within or outside the coalition. Such a coalition may reflect the will of the electorate, but it means more social legislation with socialist control over the state budget, and in particular – a weakened status for Macron in the EU, perhaps Macron's greatest disappointment from the results of the National Assembly elections.
The second option is the Conservative Republican Party with an expected 76 seats. This is a more "natural" coalition, although its head, Christian Jacob, has declared that his party will be in the opposition (though many have interpreted this as a negotiation tactic for forming a coalition). If the coalition with the Republicans is eventually formed, Macron's basic liberal leaning will be weakened, along with his ability to reach understandings with the center-left government in Germany.
Macron will have to choose between a coalition with a right wing tone – because with all the joy of the French left, the parliamentary elections point to the voter's right-wing proclivity – and a center-left coalition that may put him in a comfortable position with the German government on social issues and "green" legislation, but will create problems for him vis-à-vis Europe over budget deviations, for example. A coalition with the Conservatives could make it difficult for Macron to deal with legislation and conduct on refugees, immigrants, and minority issues.
Also on the agenda is France's policy on Ukraine. Macron pursued an active, almost personal policy, and spent the day before the second round in Kiev. The question arises, for example, whether the new government, if formed with the Socialists, will approve the armament of Ukraine with modern weapons, and more than "defensive" arms.
And the significance for Israel: a coalition in which Le Pen's party is a partner is unlikely and this is a great relief. A coalition in which the People's Union bears decisive weight will influence France's positions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, which in Macron's first five years were balanced.
In conclusion, expect coalition negotiations in France over a government that will produce no less news than in Israel.
The magic number is 289 – the number of MPs required to control the 577-member French parliament. However, the unequivocal result of the two rounds of parliamentary elections in France is disappointing to President Emmanuel Macron. He himself won the presidential election for the second time last April, but his Ensemble party lost the absolute majority in parliament and will probably win only 234 seats, according to the polls at the end of the second round. In other words, it does not have an absolute majority. In order to continue to lead it will have to form a coalition, but with whom and at what cost?
The voter seems to have wanted to signal it does not want a complete centralized rule, which in fact prevailed for the past three decades. Its vote, therefore, prevents Macron from continuing to have complete control over the process of control and legislation in France. At the same time, it also increased the far right of Marine Le Pen to 85 seats in parliament – far beyond the minimum required from a party that wants to demand, for example, a no-confidence vote.
The second largest party is the New Popular Union, centered on the Socialist bloc, with an expected 149 seats. This is a very problematic coalition, especially if its leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon, continues as its head. Melenchon is a militant politician who will give a hard time within or outside the coalition. Such a coalition may reflect the will of the electorate, but it means more social legislation with socialist control over the state budget, and in particular – a weakened status for Macron in the EU, perhaps Macron's greatest disappointment from the results of the National Assembly elections.
The second option is the Conservative Republican Party with an expected 76 seats. This is a more "natural" coalition, although its head, Christian Jacob, has declared that his party will be in the opposition (though many have interpreted this as a negotiation tactic for forming a coalition). If the coalition with the Republicans is eventually formed, Macron's basic liberal leaning will be weakened, along with his ability to reach understandings with the center-left government in Germany.
Macron will have to choose between a coalition with a right wing tone – because with all the joy of the French left, the parliamentary elections point to the voter's right-wing proclivity – and a center-left coalition that may put him in a comfortable position with the German government on social issues and "green" legislation, but will create problems for him vis-à-vis Europe over budget deviations, for example. A coalition with the Conservatives could make it difficult for Macron to deal with legislation and conduct on refugees, immigrants, and minority issues.
Also on the agenda is France's policy on Ukraine. Macron pursued an active, almost personal policy, and spent the day before the second round in Kiev. The question arises, for example, whether the new government, if formed with the Socialists, will approve the armament of Ukraine with modern weapons, and more than "defensive" arms.
And the significance for Israel: a coalition in which Le Pen's party is a partner is unlikely and this is a great relief. A coalition in which the People's Union bears decisive weight will influence France's positions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, which in Macron's first five years were balanced.
In conclusion, expect coalition negotiations in France over a government that will produce no less news than in Israel.