In Japan’s election this past Sunday, the ruling parties suffered a severe blow, losing 64 seats—the most substantial defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 2009. So, how did we get here after 15 years of continuous LDP-led governments?
A survey of the Japan Times points to three primary factors. First, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet appointments, which favored long-time allies and lacked diversity (especially women and younger officials), contradicted his promises and weakened his public support. Second, his surprising decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for snap elections immediately upon his election—contrary to previous statements—further eroded public trust and strengthened the opposition. Finally, Ishiba neglected to address internal party disputes, particularly among the conservative base, which ultimately hurt his support during the election.
It now appears that both the opposition and the ruling coalition will face significant challenges in forming a stable, long-term government. It’s difficult to predict Japan’s policy direction if the opposition successfully forms a government, given the coalition’s 15-year grip on power. However, if the coalition manages to establish a minority government, a period of governmental paralysis is likely, which could complicate decision-making on politically sensitive issues in the near term. These include defense spending and military preparedness, economic policy and interest rates, and Japan–US relations. This situation would also grant minor coalition partners more influence over the agenda.
Policy implementation is expected to slow considerably, due to the need for prolonged negotiations and discussions. In this environment, Japan’s strong bureaucracy is expected to play a more critical role in shaping and implementing policy, filling the gaps left by politicians to ensure the government continues to function. As bureaucrats gain more influence, Israel may encounter a less friendly Japan, as Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has historically held a pro-Arab stance.
In Japan’s election this past Sunday, the ruling parties suffered a severe blow, losing 64 seats—the most substantial defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 2009. So, how did we get here after 15 years of continuous LDP-led governments?
A survey of the Japan Times points to three primary factors. First, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet appointments, which favored long-time allies and lacked diversity (especially women and younger officials), contradicted his promises and weakened his public support. Second, his surprising decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for snap elections immediately upon his election—contrary to previous statements—further eroded public trust and strengthened the opposition. Finally, Ishiba neglected to address internal party disputes, particularly among the conservative base, which ultimately hurt his support during the election.
It now appears that both the opposition and the ruling coalition will face significant challenges in forming a stable, long-term government. It’s difficult to predict Japan’s policy direction if the opposition successfully forms a government, given the coalition’s 15-year grip on power. However, if the coalition manages to establish a minority government, a period of governmental paralysis is likely, which could complicate decision-making on politically sensitive issues in the near term. These include defense spending and military preparedness, economic policy and interest rates, and Japan–US relations. This situation would also grant minor coalition partners more influence over the agenda.
Policy implementation is expected to slow considerably, due to the need for prolonged negotiations and discussions. In this environment, Japan’s strong bureaucracy is expected to play a more critical role in shaping and implementing policy, filling the gaps left by politicians to ensure the government continues to function. As bureaucrats gain more influence, Israel may encounter a less friendly Japan, as Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has historically held a pro-Arab stance.