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Home Posts Is a Saudi-Israel Agreement Within Reach?

Is a Saudi-Israel Agreement Within Reach?
Eldad Shavit, Yoel Guzansky 21 September, 2023
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It appears from his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu that President Biden attaches much importance to promotion of a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia (“a big deal”). For him, Israel's role is to provide the administration with “ammunition” on the Palestinian issue that will allow it to persuade the expected opponents in Washington to support the high costs the US will be required to pay: a defense pact, advanced weapons, and above all, the promotion of the uranium enrichment project on Saudi soil.

The administration hopes to use the opportunity to return Israel to a strict path of conduct with the Palestinians that will prevent derailment of the two-state vision. In this context, it was emphasized that President Biden expects Israel to adopt immediate measures to prevent security and economic deterioration in the Palestinian arena.

The administration has also appended the judicial legislation issue and implicitly demanded that in light of the effort to “forge a historic peace” to promote an agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will find the ways to promote the judicial legislation with broad consent. This will ensure stability in Israel and broad support for the Saudi deal. The administration is also aware of the objections that exist in Israel, including from security officials and senior members of the opposition, to the enrichment component demanded by Riyadh.

In a reference to Iran, the President repeated his promise that he would work to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. But it seems that in hard times the Saudi issue is at the center of the agenda.

For various reasons (his legacy, an election year, the competition with China, including in the Middle East, and more) President Biden has changed his position and is now interested in a deal with the Saudi Crown Prince. The apparent change in the US position toward enrichment in Saudi Arabia and toward bin Salman himself is particularly significant.

The impression is that Biden attaches great importance to Israel's position and actions for the success of the move. And hence the assessment that Israel’s position will wield much influence on decision making in Washington. Without the active support of Prime Minister Netanyahu, the administration will find it difficult to advance the initiative. A possible corollary is that failure would be placed at Israel's doorstep if the administration assesses that Israeli positions/moves have prevented achievement of agreements.

In a rare interview with Fox News, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has turned from an outcast into a desired partner, generated optimism, noting “that every day we get closer to an agreement.” However, these remarks and the exchange at the Biden-Netanyahu meeting notwithstanding, there is still a long road ahead. It appears that the Saudis do not intend to relax their main demands, including on the nuclear issue and the receipt of advanced weapons, as well as demands that they and the US have regarding significant Israeli steps toward the Palestinians. This reality challenges Washington and Jerusalem to take difficult decisions.

Topics: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, Israel-United States Relations, Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
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  • Research

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      • Israel and the Global Powers
      • Israel-United States Relations
      • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
      • Russia
      • Europe
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
      • Iran
      • Lebanon and Hezbollah
      • Syria
      • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
      • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
      • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
      • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
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