The results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections reflect changes in the political map, which mainly mean the weakening of the Hezbollah wing and the strengthening of its opponents, but not enough to form a stable and functioning government that a collapsing Lebanon desperately needs.
Despite the low expectations of a significant portion of the Lebanese public, which were also reflected in the low turnout (41% compared to 49% in the 2018 elections), the current results reflect the new winds blowing in Lebanon. The main change is the decline in support for Hezbollah’s camp, which has lost the majority in parliament it has enjoyed since the 2018 elections (71 seats out of 128). Although Hezbollah has retained its 13 seats out of 128 members of parliament, its Christian and Druze partners in the previous parliament suffered a blow and weakened, while Hezbollah candidates even lost in areas under its control.
At the same time, the big winner of these elections is Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces party and Nasrallah’s arch-enemy. Geagea leads the struggle to disarm Hezbollah, and his party has become the largest Christian party in the current parliament. Another significant change is the election of more than 20 new MPs representing fragments of new independent parties that are devoid of ethnic-religious identity. Born out of the widespread public protest in Lebanon, they have called for a change in Lebanon’s leadership and to improve the economic and social situation.
At the same time, it appears the achievements of Hezbollah’s opponents will not lead to any positive changes in the catastrophic situation of the collapsing Lebanese state in the near future, as the new political system will not produce stability. Many of the old corrupt leadership have remained intact. The boycott of elections by Hariri’s large Sunni party, al-Mustaqbal, has left a leadership vacuum in the Sunni camp. It presents Hezbollah and its allies with a divided camp, which includes several old parties and party fragments. It is not clear if Geagea, marked by Hezbollah as a collaborator with Israel, will succeed in uniting the parties on the basis of a common agenda.
In this situation, it is doubtful whether the people of Lebanon will soon be informed of the establishment of a new functioning government, and it seems far from reaching an agreement on the formation and staffing of the Sunni prime minister (under the Lebanese constitution) who will lead it. Already at this early stage, Hezbollah is echoing the message that a consensus government with its participation is required, which means that the government will be paralyzed like its predecessors and will not be able to function effectively and work for the reconstruction of Lebanon. Even if an agreement is reached on forming a government without Hezbollah—a scenario that is very unlikely at this stage—Hezbollah will use all the means at its disposal to torpedo its activities.
The results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections reflect changes in the political map, which mainly mean the weakening of the Hezbollah wing and the strengthening of its opponents, but not enough to form a stable and functioning government that a collapsing Lebanon desperately needs.
Despite the low expectations of a significant portion of the Lebanese public, which were also reflected in the low turnout (41% compared to 49% in the 2018 elections), the current results reflect the new winds blowing in Lebanon. The main change is the decline in support for Hezbollah’s camp, which has lost the majority in parliament it has enjoyed since the 2018 elections (71 seats out of 128). Although Hezbollah has retained its 13 seats out of 128 members of parliament, its Christian and Druze partners in the previous parliament suffered a blow and weakened, while Hezbollah candidates even lost in areas under its control.
At the same time, the big winner of these elections is Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces party and Nasrallah’s arch-enemy. Geagea leads the struggle to disarm Hezbollah, and his party has become the largest Christian party in the current parliament. Another significant change is the election of more than 20 new MPs representing fragments of new independent parties that are devoid of ethnic-religious identity. Born out of the widespread public protest in Lebanon, they have called for a change in Lebanon’s leadership and to improve the economic and social situation.
At the same time, it appears the achievements of Hezbollah’s opponents will not lead to any positive changes in the catastrophic situation of the collapsing Lebanese state in the near future, as the new political system will not produce stability. Many of the old corrupt leadership have remained intact. The boycott of elections by Hariri’s large Sunni party, al-Mustaqbal, has left a leadership vacuum in the Sunni camp. It presents Hezbollah and its allies with a divided camp, which includes several old parties and party fragments. It is not clear if Geagea, marked by Hezbollah as a collaborator with Israel, will succeed in uniting the parties on the basis of a common agenda.
In this situation, it is doubtful whether the people of Lebanon will soon be informed of the establishment of a new functioning government, and it seems far from reaching an agreement on the formation and staffing of the Sunni prime minister (under the Lebanese constitution) who will lead it. Already at this early stage, Hezbollah is echoing the message that a consensus government with its participation is required, which means that the government will be paralyzed like its predecessors and will not be able to function effectively and work for the reconstruction of Lebanon. Even if an agreement is reached on forming a government without Hezbollah—a scenario that is very unlikely at this stage—Hezbollah will use all the means at its disposal to torpedo its activities.