The ongoing conflict between the US and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria saw significant deterioration with the attack that targeted the US al-Tanf base (located in the Syria-Iraq-Jordan border triangle). The attack by the militias hit the base in northeastern Jordan and killed three US soldiers and wounded a few dozen. Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip, the militias have carried out more than 150 attacks against US targets, and in response the United States has carried out a series of counterattacks, including the killing of one of the top militia figures in the heart of Baghdad. In a special announcement, President Biden accused the pro-Iranian militias of the action and stated: "Have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing.”
The deadly results of this militia attack heightens the dilemma the Biden administration has faced since early October regarding its responses to the ongoing attacks by Iran's allies in the Gulf. Until now, although administration spokespersons have stated time and again that Iran directs and assists operations against US targets, the United States has refrained from responding directly against Iran. On the one hand, the administration's interest in not being drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran remains unchanged. On the other hand, the credibility of US deterrence is tested, and the fear is growing that projecting weakness will encourage the escalation of action against US targets.
Contrary to American interests, the worsening of the conflict also increases the calls in Iraq for the removal of the US forces from its territory. In the background there are US domestic political pressures in an election year. Former President Trump has already taken advantage of the events to attack Biden, and the calls of lawmakers to respond directly against Iran are growing. Naturally, Biden does not want to be perceived as a weak leader, but he also knows that involvement in another war in the Middle East will harm his political ambitions.
The United States will respond to the latest attack, presumably with greater force than its responses so far. Beyond a likely broad and significant attack on targets directly connected to the militias, it is very doubtful if targets inside Iranian territory will be attacked. However, the possibility of an intermediate path of attacking targets belonging to Iran and located outside of its territory (at sea or in Iraq/Syria?) cannot be ruled out. In any case, it is likely that the conflict between the two sides will not stop and the risk of wider deterioration in the Gulf remains the same – and may even increase.
The ongoing conflict between the US and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria saw significant deterioration with the attack that targeted the US al-Tanf base (located in the Syria-Iraq-Jordan border triangle). The attack by the militias hit the base in northeastern Jordan and killed three US soldiers and wounded a few dozen. Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip, the militias have carried out more than 150 attacks against US targets, and in response the United States has carried out a series of counterattacks, including the killing of one of the top militia figures in the heart of Baghdad. In a special announcement, President Biden accused the pro-Iranian militias of the action and stated: "Have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing.”
The deadly results of this militia attack heightens the dilemma the Biden administration has faced since early October regarding its responses to the ongoing attacks by Iran's allies in the Gulf. Until now, although administration spokespersons have stated time and again that Iran directs and assists operations against US targets, the United States has refrained from responding directly against Iran. On the one hand, the administration's interest in not being drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran remains unchanged. On the other hand, the credibility of US deterrence is tested, and the fear is growing that projecting weakness will encourage the escalation of action against US targets.
Contrary to American interests, the worsening of the conflict also increases the calls in Iraq for the removal of the US forces from its territory. In the background there are US domestic political pressures in an election year. Former President Trump has already taken advantage of the events to attack Biden, and the calls of lawmakers to respond directly against Iran are growing. Naturally, Biden does not want to be perceived as a weak leader, but he also knows that involvement in another war in the Middle East will harm his political ambitions.
The United States will respond to the latest attack, presumably with greater force than its responses so far. Beyond a likely broad and significant attack on targets directly connected to the militias, it is very doubtful if targets inside Iranian territory will be attacked. However, the possibility of an intermediate path of attacking targets belonging to Iran and located outside of its territory (at sea or in Iraq/Syria?) cannot be ruled out. In any case, it is likely that the conflict between the two sides will not stop and the risk of wider deterioration in the Gulf remains the same – and may even increase.