Since the ceasefire between the Houthis and the Yemeni government ended last October, a de facto ceasefire surprisingly came into effect. When they stopped fighting, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia (which supports the government) returned to the negotiating table, through Omani mediation.
How did such a situation arise after eight years of intense and brutal war?
For all parties involved, war ceased to be an attractive or even viable option. The Houthis, while remaining the strongest side in the conflict, are militarily exhausted from their unsuccessful assault on Marib, where they suffered heavy losses inflicted by UAE-backed forces. The military difficulties have only worsened due to the group's economic problems, while throughout northern Yemen fuel prices rose considerably. In this overall context, an attempt to impose their will at the negotiating table and not on the battlefield seems to be the group’s most desirable option.
The Saudis, for their part, have in recent years been looking for a way out of Yemen, which has often been referred to in the press as “Saudi Arabia’s Vietnam.” Unable to secure a decisive military victory against the Houthis, the Saudis are desperately trying to end their tragic adventure in Yemen through negotiations. This, the Saudis believe, will allow them to exit Yemen without giving the Houthis and their Iranian backer the full range of benefits that a military victory would bring them.
What are the chances for peace?
The fact the Houthis and the Saudis have put down their arms and returned to bilateral negotiations is undoubtedly very positive for Yemen. However, the Yemen war began as a civil conflict between the Houthis and the government. Therefore, the exclusion of the Presidential Council from the negotiations could undermine the prospects for a future, stable, and sustainable peace. Without the Council's participation, not only does peace seem elusive, but the current ceasefire may also be short-lived.
Since the ceasefire between the Houthis and the Yemeni government ended last October, a de facto ceasefire surprisingly came into effect. When they stopped fighting, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia (which supports the government) returned to the negotiating table, through Omani mediation.
How did such a situation arise after eight years of intense and brutal war?
For all parties involved, war ceased to be an attractive or even viable option. The Houthis, while remaining the strongest side in the conflict, are militarily exhausted from their unsuccessful assault on Marib, where they suffered heavy losses inflicted by UAE-backed forces. The military difficulties have only worsened due to the group's economic problems, while throughout northern Yemen fuel prices rose considerably. In this overall context, an attempt to impose their will at the negotiating table and not on the battlefield seems to be the group’s most desirable option.
The Saudis, for their part, have in recent years been looking for a way out of Yemen, which has often been referred to in the press as “Saudi Arabia’s Vietnam.” Unable to secure a decisive military victory against the Houthis, the Saudis are desperately trying to end their tragic adventure in Yemen through negotiations. This, the Saudis believe, will allow them to exit Yemen without giving the Houthis and their Iranian backer the full range of benefits that a military victory would bring them.
What are the chances for peace?
The fact the Houthis and the Saudis have put down their arms and returned to bilateral negotiations is undoubtedly very positive for Yemen. However, the Yemen war began as a civil conflict between the Houthis and the government. Therefore, the exclusion of the Presidential Council from the negotiations could undermine the prospects for a future, stable, and sustainable peace. Without the Council's participation, not only does peace seem elusive, but the current ceasefire may also be short-lived.