The very fact of the visit by Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Turkey testifies to the improved relations between the two states. The visit should be seen as part of Ankara’s efforts over the last year to improve relations with states in the region and to weaken the anti-Turkish axis that developed following previous revisionist steps by Ankara.
From a geopolitical standpoint, including ramifications of the war in Ukraine that are already evident, Ankara has serious considerations that encourage it to maintain good relations with Jerusalem. Turkey hopes that improved relations with Israel will help it in Washington regarding the acquisition and upgrade of F-16s, which it needs in the near future. The financial crisis in Turkey, which began before the war in Ukraine and will worsen given the rise in energy and wheat prices, likewise encourages the current effort to move closer to Israel. The improved relations are important not only for bilateral commercial relations between Turkey and Israel (which in 2021 reached a new height of $6.7 billion in mutual trade) but also help Turkey project political moderation, which encourages foreign investment. In addition, and as occurred surrounding the normalization agreement of 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has again expressed interest in discussing the possibility of Israel’s export of gas to Turkey.
At the same time, if there is a significant deterioration in the Palestinian arena, or considerations relating to future elections prompt Erdogan to cool the relations with Israel, once again a crisis in relations might ensue. Therefore, Israel’s doubts and hesitation over the last year whether to respond favorably to Turkey’s advances were justified. In addition, if Israel is interested in improved relations with Turkey, it must also consider its regional allies, not all of which are pleased at this prospect.
In light of this complexity, the question arises how much can President Herzog’s visit contribute to any substantive change in the relations between Ankara and Jerusalem. Some answers can be found in the recent INSS conference “Winds of Change: Where are Turkey-Israel Relations Headed?” You can watch the conference in full at >> https://www.inss.org.il/event/turkey-israel/
The very fact of the visit by Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Turkey testifies to the improved relations between the two states. The visit should be seen as part of Ankara’s efforts over the last year to improve relations with states in the region and to weaken the anti-Turkish axis that developed following previous revisionist steps by Ankara.
From a geopolitical standpoint, including ramifications of the war in Ukraine that are already evident, Ankara has serious considerations that encourage it to maintain good relations with Jerusalem. Turkey hopes that improved relations with Israel will help it in Washington regarding the acquisition and upgrade of F-16s, which it needs in the near future. The financial crisis in Turkey, which began before the war in Ukraine and will worsen given the rise in energy and wheat prices, likewise encourages the current effort to move closer to Israel. The improved relations are important not only for bilateral commercial relations between Turkey and Israel (which in 2021 reached a new height of $6.7 billion in mutual trade) but also help Turkey project political moderation, which encourages foreign investment. In addition, and as occurred surrounding the normalization agreement of 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has again expressed interest in discussing the possibility of Israel’s export of gas to Turkey.
At the same time, if there is a significant deterioration in the Palestinian arena, or considerations relating to future elections prompt Erdogan to cool the relations with Israel, once again a crisis in relations might ensue. Therefore, Israel’s doubts and hesitation over the last year whether to respond favorably to Turkey’s advances were justified. In addition, if Israel is interested in improved relations with Turkey, it must also consider its regional allies, not all of which are pleased at this prospect.
In light of this complexity, the question arises how much can President Herzog’s visit contribute to any substantive change in the relations between Ankara and Jerusalem. Some answers can be found in the recent INSS conference “Winds of Change: Where are Turkey-Israel Relations Headed?” You can watch the conference in full at >> https://www.inss.org.il/event/turkey-israel/