Sarah Lerech Zilberberg

Current Situation – High-level enrichment · Thousands of advanced centrifuges · Limited inspection · Fissile material for  4 devices within 1 month · Continued regional subversion · Challenges of legitimacy and countermeasures | Current Israeli Strategy – Reject renewed JCPOA · Advocate “longer & stronger” agreement · Create credible military threat · Attack in Syria against regional subversion | Recommended Strategy – Expand cooperation with the US to improve the military option · Build a political framework against the nuclear program, while developing an independent military option · Continue to prevent qualitative capabilities in Syria and Lebanon · Reduce the entrenchment in Syria

Relations between Moscow and Tehran reached new heights in 2022, with Iranian drones used by Russia in Ukraine. Iran expects Russian recompense in the form of assistance with arms sales, perhaps along with cooperation in the Syrian space and the nuclear realm – and this creates a worrisome situation for Israel.

Iran suffers from a serious water shortage, and with ongoing population growth and damage to water resources infrastructure, the condition worsens each year. In many of the remaining freshwater resources there are significant levels of salinity and pollution. The water crisis has exacerbated Iran’s domestic problems. It greatly concerns citizens, raises frustrations, leads to protests in the streets, and figures frequently in academic forums, on social media, and in traditional media. The crisis has amplified class disparities, the lack of confidence in the authorities, and the unemployment and migration of the rural population to cities, known in Iran as “water refugees.” Moreover, the agricultural sector, which consumes the most water in Iran, has been less productive than expected—encouragement from the regime notwithstanding—and many farmers have stopped engaging in agriculture and moved to urban areas. However, many have not succeeded in integrating in the cities as they expected, and this in turn intensifies social tensions, crime, and unemployment. The nuclear reactors, which need large amounts of fresh water for the uranium mining industry and for cooling the reactors, and whose wastewater pollutes the soil and water sources, are also influenced by Iran’s water crisis, as is the volume of electricity production in Iran. Numerous power outages occur each year, including in the main cities, affecting hospitals, infrastructure, and the operation of heavy industry and the petrochemical industries. Despite the severity of the water crisis, the solutions Iran has pursued are inadequate. This stems partly from improper water management and from the fact that in-depth solutions require extensive policy changes and considerable capital. To emerge from the crisis, Iran must advance large-scale technological water solutions, such as desalination and wastewater treatment. This requires cooperation with countries that specialize in water solutions and a decision to prioritize the funding of these solutions, yet this is a problematic road for Iran as long as it suffers from an economic crisis, international isolation, and sanctions.