How is this Passover in Israel’s Divided Society Different – and Will It Change?
INSS senior researcher Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dr. Meir Elran writes:
For Israeli society, this Passover follows a series of shocking, dramatic, and unprecedentedly dangerous events. We all stand together at a historical junction: will we cross it on the way to recovery and growth, or will we fall into the gaping abyss and see the collapse of a functioning society? We are in the midst of a national trauma. We ourselves have caused this disaster and have no one else to blame. Years of telltale signs, separatism and hatred, and ignoring what was happening between us, without attention and fitting responses, brought us to an acute situation on the brink of destruction and doom. No less.
The suspension of the judicial overhaul legislation announced by Prime Minister Netanyahu is important and timely. He is to be congratulated for this brave decision. Negotiations between the hawkish sides, under the auspices of President Herzog, is the right move now. It is important that the representatives of the two camps invest all the goodwill that can be mobilized, in order to hold candid talks, without preconditions, while internalizing two principal ideas. First, there is no escape from finding an agreed formula, even if this may take time. Anything else means the destruction of everything that was built here in over a hundred years of the fulfillment of Zionism, of the creation of the historical splendor of the Jewish and democratic state. Second, there is a golden opportunity on the agenda, to establish a renewed order of the entire governmental system here, in a balanced way that will guarantee democratic rule and the rights of individuals and disadvantaged groups.
I believe the second outcome is possible, despite the bad blood and deep, genuine differences between us. Any other possibility means destruction and ruin, from which it is doubtful whether we can recover. This is up to us and in the hands of the leaders we have elected. They should be given the time for this, without pressure, and with hope that reason will control their actions.
Iran: How is the Passover Different – and What Will Change?
Sima Shine and Dr. Raz Zimmt, researchers in the INSS Iran program, write:
In the past year, Iran saw three major developments: the outbreak of widespread protests of young people; the collapse of the talks on a possible return to the nuclear agreement; and the upgrade of military relations with Russia, against the background of the war in Ukraine.
In the domestic arena, the death of the Iranian young woman Mahsa Amini during her arrest by the "morality police" led to the most serious wave of protests facing the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.
In the nuclear realm, the talks between Iran and the Western powers on returning to the nuclear agreement have collapsed, and in the absence of an agreement, Iran advanced toward the military nuclear threshold, including a proven ability to enrich uranium to the level of 84 percent. For the first time, if it wanted to, Iran could achieve a breakout to nuclear weapons in a short period of time.
In the international arena, in an unprecedented step, Iran has sided with Russia in its war in Ukraine, by supplying drones and experts. In return, new opportunities have opened up for Iran to receive advanced weapons (fighter jets and air defense) and to improve its economic situation.
What will likely change in the coming year?
Although the protests have subsided, the regime's failure to provide a solution to the civilian distress and the younger generation’s unabated desire for political and civil liberties is expected to continue fueling further waves of protest. The ongoing economic crisis and the heated political arena ahead of the parliamentary elections expected in early 2024 bear the potential for renewed escalation in the conflicts between the regime and its citizens.
In view of Iran's position on the nuclear threshold and the collapse of the nuclear talks, the risk of an Iranian decision to take additional defiant measures, including uranium enrichment to a military level (over 90 percent), withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and under certain circumstances, even a breakout to nuclear weapons, is heightened. All of these raise the likelihood of a military conflict between Israel and Iran.
The Palestinian Arena: What Will be Different?
The head of the Palestinian program at INSS, Brig. Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel, writes:
Four difficult questions mark the Passover that this year coincides with Ramadan. How they are answered will help shape the holiday message: will slavery to terrorism, violence, and disagreement continue? Or is there hope for a new trend?
- What will change in the policy of the Israeli government? Will the extremist elements in the Israeli government succeed in implementing their ideology to erase any possibility of a future agreement between Israel and a Palestinian entity, to quash the national aspirations of the Palestinians, and to prepare the conditions for the annexation of Area C to the State of Israel? If they succeed, what will be the consequences for the vision of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and prosperous state and for its regional and international status?
- What will change in the rising terrorism and violence in the West Bank? Since the beginning of 2023, 11 Jews have been murdered and nearly 90 Palestinians have been killed. Why is the security establishment unable to suppress terrorism, with more young Palestinians willing to confront our forces and launch attacks? What are the implications of the administrative vacuum of the Palestinian Authority for its future and its ability to function effectively, as it loses its legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian public – which at the same time has also lost trust in a political settlement and increases its support for "violent resistance"?
- What will change in Hamas’s approach? Will Hamas continue to conduct the choir of incitement toward terrorist attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem, and to position itself as the "defender of al-Aqsa," while preserving the security calm in the Gaza Strip (to allow its ongoing reconstruction, work permits for labor in Israel, and its continued military strengthening). When and what will make it ignite the Gaza Strip?
- What will change in the security-political coordination vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority? Will Passover and Ramadan occur without violent riots on the Temple Mount, with close coordination between the Jordanian Waqf on the Temple Mount and the Israel Police? Will the security dialogue held before Ramadan in Aqaba, Jordan and Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt continue and be expanded under the pressure of the United States, Egypt, and Jordan? Might this signal the strengthening of the restraining factors over the explosive ones?
How is this Passover in Israel’s Divided Society Different – and Will It Change?
INSS senior researcher Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dr. Meir Elran writes:
For Israeli society, this Passover follows a series of shocking, dramatic, and unprecedentedly dangerous events. We all stand together at a historical junction: will we cross it on the way to recovery and growth, or will we fall into the gaping abyss and see the collapse of a functioning society? We are in the midst of a national trauma. We ourselves have caused this disaster and have no one else to blame. Years of telltale signs, separatism and hatred, and ignoring what was happening between us, without attention and fitting responses, brought us to an acute situation on the brink of destruction and doom. No less.
The suspension of the judicial overhaul legislation announced by Prime Minister Netanyahu is important and timely. He is to be congratulated for this brave decision. Negotiations between the hawkish sides, under the auspices of President Herzog, is the right move now. It is important that the representatives of the two camps invest all the goodwill that can be mobilized, in order to hold candid talks, without preconditions, while internalizing two principal ideas. First, there is no escape from finding an agreed formula, even if this may take time. Anything else means the destruction of everything that was built here in over a hundred years of the fulfillment of Zionism, of the creation of the historical splendor of the Jewish and democratic state. Second, there is a golden opportunity on the agenda, to establish a renewed order of the entire governmental system here, in a balanced way that will guarantee democratic rule and the rights of individuals and disadvantaged groups.
I believe the second outcome is possible, despite the bad blood and deep, genuine differences between us. Any other possibility means destruction and ruin, from which it is doubtful whether we can recover. This is up to us and in the hands of the leaders we have elected. They should be given the time for this, without pressure, and with hope that reason will control their actions.
Iran: How is the Passover Different – and What Will Change?
Sima Shine and Dr. Raz Zimmt, researchers in the INSS Iran program, write:
In the past year, Iran saw three major developments: the outbreak of widespread protests of young people; the collapse of the talks on a possible return to the nuclear agreement; and the upgrade of military relations with Russia, against the background of the war in Ukraine.
In the domestic arena, the death of the Iranian young woman Mahsa Amini during her arrest by the "morality police" led to the most serious wave of protests facing the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.
In the nuclear realm, the talks between Iran and the Western powers on returning to the nuclear agreement have collapsed, and in the absence of an agreement, Iran advanced toward the military nuclear threshold, including a proven ability to enrich uranium to the level of 84 percent. For the first time, if it wanted to, Iran could achieve a breakout to nuclear weapons in a short period of time.
In the international arena, in an unprecedented step, Iran has sided with Russia in its war in Ukraine, by supplying drones and experts. In return, new opportunities have opened up for Iran to receive advanced weapons (fighter jets and air defense) and to improve its economic situation.
What will likely change in the coming year?
Although the protests have subsided, the regime's failure to provide a solution to the civilian distress and the younger generation’s unabated desire for political and civil liberties is expected to continue fueling further waves of protest. The ongoing economic crisis and the heated political arena ahead of the parliamentary elections expected in early 2024 bear the potential for renewed escalation in the conflicts between the regime and its citizens.
In view of Iran's position on the nuclear threshold and the collapse of the nuclear talks, the risk of an Iranian decision to take additional defiant measures, including uranium enrichment to a military level (over 90 percent), withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and under certain circumstances, even a breakout to nuclear weapons, is heightened. All of these raise the likelihood of a military conflict between Israel and Iran.
The Palestinian Arena: What Will be Different?
The head of the Palestinian program at INSS, Brig. Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel, writes:
Four difficult questions mark the Passover that this year coincides with Ramadan. How they are answered will help shape the holiday message: will slavery to terrorism, violence, and disagreement continue? Or is there hope for a new trend?