Respondents were asked to select the three most threatening scenarios facing Israel in the next five years from a list of 14 scenarios spanning security, diplomatic, social, economic, and environmental domains. The four most frequently selected scenarios are: violent conflict between societal groups (39%, compared to 42% in the previous measurement), Iran acquires nuclear weapons (39%, compared to 40% in the previous measurement), a large-scale missile attack on the home front (35%, compared to 38% in the previous measurement), and undermining the State's democratic character (31%, compared to 34% in the previous measurement)—the exact same top four that led in the previous wave.

Compared to the previous wave, statistically significant increases were recorded in three scenarios: a prolonged war on one of Israel's fronts (from 23% to 27%), international isolation and sanctions (from 21% to 26%), and most conspicuously—a decrease in economic productivity due to demographic changes, where the selection rate tripled (from 4% to 12%). Concurrently, a decrease was recorded in the percentage of respondents selecting a cyberattack and foreign influence in the digital sphere as a significant threat (from 12% down to 9%). No significant differences between waves were found across the remaining scenarios.

Regarding the increase in the productivity scenario, a wording change must be taken into account: in the current wave, the word "economic" was added to the title of the scenario ("a decline in economic productivity due to demographic changes") to prevent confusion with other interpretations of the term. Therefore, it cannot be definitively determined whether the difference stems from the change in wording or from public discourse and the current security situation, in which security tensions are lower.

For comparison, among the experts (February 2026), the most prominent concerns were undermining the State's democratic character (67%), violent conflict between societal groups (58%), and international isolation and sanctions (44%)—a pattern that emphasizes internal and diplomatic threats, whereas the general public continues to attribute greater weight to direct security threats. The complete findings are presented in Figure 1 and Table 1.

Respondents were subsequently asked to indicate which of the three scenarios they selected represents the most significant threat in their eyes. In the current wave as well, no clear consensus emerged among the public, with the top four threats being: Iran acquiring nuclear weapons (19%), violent conflict between societal groups (15%), undermining the State's democratic character (15%), and a large-scale missile attack on the home front (13%). These are the same four threats that led in the previous wave, with a slight change in order and similar percentages.

Notably, although the current wave was conducted following Operation "Roaring Lion," no statistically significant change was recorded in the proportion of respondents identifying the Iranian threat as the most significant. This contrasts with the expert sample, among whom there was a clear convergence around a single scenario in the previous wave—undermining the State's democratic character (45%). The complete findings are presented in Table 2.