Loss of U.S. Support

Key Findings

The proportion of those selecting this scenario remained stable (22%, similar to 21% in the previous wave); however, its perceived likelihood of occurrence doubled from 13% to 26%—the steepest increase among all scenarios. 67% anticipate high or very high damage in the event of loss of U.S. support (71% in the previous wave). In the July survey, 59% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low. Among experts, assessments of the scenario’s severity were particularly high: 93% estimated that it would cause high or very high damage should it occur.

53% indicated that, should the threat occur, the damage will impact financial security and standard of living.

Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years

High or Very High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Low or Very Low Likelihood Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

26%41%31%

Public – February 2026

12%27%58%

Experts – February 2026

15%53%32%

Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs

High or Very High Damage Moderate Damage Little or No Damage Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

67%23%8%

Public – February 2026

71%17%9%

Experts – February 2026

93%7%

Public – July 2026

How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?

Full Public Sample

High or Very High Preparedness 12%

Moderate Preparedness 25%

Low or Very Low Preparedness 59%

Don’t Know 4%

Public – July 2026

Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains

High or Very High Impact Moderate Impact Low or No Impact Don’t Know

Functioning of State Authorities

40%28%29%

Sense of Personal Security

42%29%26%

Financial Security and Standard of Living

53%25%21%

Emotional and Social Resilience

38%27%31%