Cross-Scenario View

Scenario Rankings across Four Measures

This section consolidates the findings of the July survey across four metrics—perceived likelihood of occurrence, anticipated damage, anticipated damage across domains of life, and perceived state preparedness (estimated for the entire sample)—with each metric ranked from highest to lowest.

High or Very High Likelihood of Occurrence — July 2026

The likelihood rankings are led by ongoing security scenarios: a large-scale missile attack on the homefront (61%), prolonged war on one of Israel's fronts (59%), and violent conflict between societal groups (54%). The lowest-ranked scenarios are damage to essential infrastructure and supply chains (19%) and undermining the State's Jewish character (18%).

High or Very High Anticipated Damage — July 2026

In the ranking of anticipated damage, domestic and diplomatic scenarios stand out in particular: violent conflict between societal groups (69%), undermining the State's democratic character (68%), Iran acquires nuclear weapons, and loss of U.S. support (67% each). The lowest-ranked scenarios are worsening impacts of climate change (35%) and cyberattack and foreign influence in the digital sphere (34%).

Anticipated Impact across Domains of Life by Scenario — July 2026

In terms of anticipated damage, military and domestic scenarios—threats of a missile attack (78%), violent conflict between societal groups (77%), and Iran (71%)—emerged as the most significant, whereas damage to financial security and standard of living is most pronounced in the infrastructure and economic scenarios: damage to essential infrastructure (77%) and a decline in economic productivity (62%).

Functioning of State AuthoritiesSense of Personal SecurityFinancial Security and Standard of LivingEmotional and Social Resilience

Large-Scale Missile Attack on the Home Front

53%
78%
69%
75%

Violent Conflict Between Societal Groups

51%
77%
59%
77%

Iran Acquires Nuclear Weapons

44%
71%
54%
64%

Large-Scale Natural Disaster

61%
67%
68%
63%

War Between Israel and a Regional Coalition

47%
65%
61%
63%

Damage to Essential Infrastructure and Supply Chains

60%
63%
77%
60%

Prolonged War on One of Israel’s Fronts

46%
62%
63%
63%

Undermining the State’s Democratic Character

59%
62%
60%
62%

Cyberattack and Foreign Influence in the Digital Sphere

64%
54%
49%
47%

International Isolation and Sanctions

49%
42%
60%
44%

Loss of U.S. Support

39%
42%
53%
38%

Decline in Economic Productivity Due to Demographic Changes

41%
40%
62%
52%

Undermining the State’s Jewish Character

29%
38%
33%
43%

Worsening Impacts of Climate Change

29%
31%
38%
33%

Low or Very Low State Preparedness — Full Public Sample, July 2026

Perceived lack of preparedness is particularly pronounced in domestic and civil scenarios— violent conflict between societal groups (64%), worsening impacts of climate change (60%), loss of U.S. support (59%), and large-scale natural disaster (58%)—and is low in military-technological scenarios including missile attack (16%) and cyberattack (14%). Combining the rankings reveals that the scenario ranked first in anticipated damage—violent conflict between societal groups—is also the scenario for which perceived lack of preparedness is highest.