Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Large-Scale Missile Attack on the Home Front
Key Findings
This scenario was selected by 35% of respondents as one of the three main threats (compared to 38% in February 2026). 61% assess the likelihood of it occurring as high or very high (compared to 57% in February 2026), while the proportion anticipating high or very high damage dropped from 66% to 56%. Perceived preparedness for this scenario is among the highest across the scenarios examined: only 15% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness as low or very low, while 38% assess it as high or very high. It is possible that the decline in perceived damage, combined with relatively high perceived preparedness, moderates the overall threat perception of this scenario.
The anticipated damage is particularly pronounced regarding sense of personal security (78%) and emotional and social resilience (75%).
Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years
High or Very High Likelihood
Moderate Likelihood
Low or Very Low Likelihood
Don’t Know
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs
High or Very High Damage
Moderate Damage
Little or No Damage
Don’t Know
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Public – July 2026
How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?
Full Public Sample
High or Very High Preparedness
38%
Moderate Preparedness
43%
Low or Very Low Preparedness
15%
Don’t Know
4%
Public – July 2026
Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains
High or Very High Impact
Moderate Impact
Low or No Impact
Don’t Know