Decline in Economic Productivity Due to Demographic Changes

This scenario recorded the most significant change between waves, with an increase across all three main metrics: the proportion of those selecting it as one of the three main threats tripled (from 4% to 12%), the perceived likelihood of its occurrence rose from 13% to 24%, and the proportion anticipating high or very high damage increased from 28% to 44%. In the July survey, 53% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low. However, these changes should be interpreted with caution: in the current wave, the phrasing of this scenario was revised by adding the word "economic," in order to prevent survey respondents from confusing it with demographic fertility. It is therefore not possible to conclude whether the change stems from a shift in public discourse in Israel or the revised wording of the scenario.

The anticipated damage is associated primarily with financial security and standard of living (62%), but not exclusively.