Violent Conflict Between Societal Groups

Key Findings

This scenario was selected by the highest percentage of respondents in the current wave as one of the three main threats—39%, similar to the previous wave (42%, a non-significant difference). Across the entire sample, 54% assess a high or very high likelihood of its occurrence, and 69% expect high or very high damage if it occurs—data similar to those recorded in the previous wave. Perceptions of preparedness are very low: 64% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness as low or very low. Furthermore, this scenario also ranked second highest among the experts (58%).

Of the four domains examined, the anticipated damage is particularly pronounced regarding respondents' sense of personal security (77%) and emotional and social resilience (77%).

Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years

High or Very High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Low or Very Low Likelihood Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

Public – February 2026

Experts – February 2026

Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs

High or Very High Damage Moderate Damage Little or No Damage Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

Public – February 2026

Experts – February 2026

Public – July 2026

How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?

Full Public Sample

High or Very High Preparedness 9%
Moderate Preparedness 24%
Low or Very Low Preparedness 64%
Don’t Know 3%

Public – July 2026

Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains

High or Very High Impact Moderate Impact Low or No Impact Don’t Know

Functioning of State Authorities

Sense of Personal Security

Financial Security and Standard of Living

Emotional and Social Resilience