Large-Scale Natural Disaster

Key Findings

Perceptions of this scenario remained stable across measurements on all metrics: 14% selected it as one of the three main threats, 25% assess the likelihood of its occurrence as high or very high (compared to 23% in the previous wave), and 64% anticipate high or very high damage (compared to 63% in the previous wave). In the July survey, 58% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low.

The anticipated damage across all four domains is high, compared to the proportion of those selecting it as one of the three significant threats.

Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years

High or Very High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Low or Very Low Likelihood Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

25%33%36%6%

Public – February 2026

23%36%36%

Experts – February 2026

24%33%39%

Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs

High or Very High Damage Moderate Damage Little or No Damage Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

64%27%6%

Public – February 2026

63%24%9%

Experts – February 2026

73%17%

Public – July 2026

How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?

Full Public Sample

High or Very High Preparedness 8%

Moderate Preparedness 30%

Low or Very Low Preparedness 58%

Don’t Know 4%

Public – July 2026

Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains

High or Very High Impact Moderate Impact Low or No Impact Don’t Know

Functioning of State Authorities

61%25%10%

Sense of Personal Security

67%21%9%

Financial Security and Standard of Living

68%24%

Emotional and Social Resilience

63%22%12%