Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
International Isolation and Sanctions
Key Findings
The proportion of those selecting this scenario as a main threat rose from 21% in February 2026 to 26%, while the most notable increase was in its perceived likelihood of occurrence—from 26% to 37%. 60% anticipate high or very high damage (compared to 55% in the previous wave, with no statistically significant difference). In the July survey, 50% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low. Notably, this scenario was prominent among experts (44%, compared to 26% among the public), such that the trend in the current wave brings public perceptions somewhat closer to those of the experts.
Should this threat occur, the damage anticipated by the majority of respondents will manifest in financial security and standard of living (60%).
Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years
High or Very High Likelihood
Moderate Likelihood
Low or Very Low Likelihood
Don’t Know
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs
High or Very High Damage
Moderate Damage
Little or No Damage
Don’t Know
Public – July 2026
Public – February 2026
Experts – February 2026
Public – July 2026
How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?
Full Public Sample
High or Very High Preparedness
11%
Moderate Preparedness
35%
Low or Very Low Preparedness
50%
Don’t Know
4%
Public – July 2026
Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains
High or Very High Impact
Moderate Impact
Low or No Impact
Don’t Know