War Between Israel and a Regional Coalition

Key Findings

This scenario was selected by a relatively low proportion of respondents as one of the main threats (13%), and the perceived likelihood of its occurrence is similar across both waves (29% compared with 28%). 51% anticipate high or very high damage should it occur. In the July survey, 28% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low.

The anticipated damage is similar across personal security, emotional and social resilience, and financial security (61%–65%).

Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years

High or Very High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Low or Very Low Likelihood Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

30%32%32%6%

Public – February 2026

28%32%35%

Experts – February 2026

10%39%51%

Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs

High or Very High Damage Moderate Damage Little or No Damage Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

51%31%12%6%

Public – February 2026

51%30%14%

Experts – February 2026

64%36%

Public – July 2026

How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?

Full Public Sample

High or Very High Preparedness 27%

Moderate Preparedness 37%

Low or Very Low Preparedness 28%

Don’t Know 8%

Public – July 2026

Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains

High or Very High Impact Moderate Impact Low or No Impact Don’t Know

Functioning of State Authorities

47%27%22%

Sense of Personal Security

66%20%12%

Financial Security and Standard of Living

61%24%11%

Emotional and Social Resilience

63%22%13%