Iran Acquires Nuclear Weapons

This scenario was selected by 39% of respondents as one of the three main threats, similar to the previous wave (40%), and it remains the scenario most frequently cited as the single most significant threat (19%)—even following Operation "Roaring Lion," with no statistically significant change. The perceived likelihood of the scenario occurring rose—43% compared to 36% in the previous wave—while the proportion expecting high or very high damage dropped from 73% to 67%. In the July survey, 32% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low. Among the experts, this scenario was selected at a much lower rate as one of the three main threats (16%). These shifts may reflect the public's experience following the campaign with Iran.

The anticipated damage in the event that the scenario occurs is particularly pronounced regarding the sense of personal security (71%) and emotional and social resilience (64%).