Worsening Impacts of Climate Change

Key Findings

This scenario was selected by the lowest proportion of respondents as one of the main threats (5%, compared with 6% in the previous wave). 33% assess the likelihood of its occurrence as high or very high (31% in the previous wave), and 35% anticipate high or very high damage (36% in the previous wave). In the July survey, 60% of the full public sample assess the State’s preparedness for this scenario as low or very low.

The anticipated damage across all four domains is among the lowest of all scenarios (29%–38%).

Selected as One of the Three Most Threatening Scenarios over the Next Five Years

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Selected as the Single Most Significant Threat

Public – July 2026 Public – February 2026 Experts – February 2026

Likelihood of the Scenario Occurring within the Next Five Years

High or Very High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Low or Very Low Likelihood Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

33%34%28%

Public – February 2026

31%32%32%

Experts – February 2026

24%37%35%

Anticipated Damage to the State of Israel if the Scenario Occurs

High or Very High Damage Moderate Damage Little or No Damage Don’t Know

Public – July 2026

35%41%15%9%

Public – February 2026

36%36%22%7%

Experts – February 2026

21%47%26%6%

Public – July 2026

How Prepared Is Israel Currently to Cope with This Scenario?

Full Public Sample

High or Very High Preparedness 7%

Moderate Preparedness 25%

Low or Very Low Preparedness 60%

Don’t Know 8%

Public – July 2026

Expected Degree of Impact across Different Domains

High or Very High Impact Moderate Impact Low or No Impact Don’t Know

Functioning of State Authorities

29%30%35%6%

Sense of Personal Security

31%33%34%

Financial Security and Standard of Living

38%30%28%

Emotional and Social Resilience

33%27%37%