Publications
Institute for National Security Studies, July 2015
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement signed in Vienna between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on July 14, 2015 has been heralded as an historic event by both its advocates and detractors. This collection brings together thoughts from the researchers at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on different aspects of the agreement and its strategic consequences for Israel, regional security in the Middle East, and global order. Here, researchers give focused answers to specific questions, providing an initial but also broad and multidimensional analysis of the nuclear agreement. This compilation is meant to serve as a foundation for a serious and comprehensive discussion of the implications of the Vienna agreement, toward a formulation of an Israeli strategy that aims to improve the strategic reality by responding to the threats and taking advantage of the opportunities embodied in the agreement.
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Foreword
Avner Golov and Owen Alterman
Part I: On the Nuclear Agreement
Have the negotiations achieved their objective? / Ephraim Asculai, Emily B. Landau, and Shimon Stein
What positive elements characterize the agreement with Iran? / Yair Evron
What are the inherent threats in the Iran nuclear agreement? / Gideon Sa'ar
To what extent does the agreement block Iran's way to the bomb? / Ephraim Asculai
What are the chances that sanctions could be snapped back? / Owen Alterman
Part II: The Agreement's Wider Implications on the Security Challenge Posed by Iran
Should Israel preserve the military option given the agreement? / Ephraim Kam
How important is Iran's missile program the day after the deal? / Avner Golov
How does the agreement affect the Iranian cyber threat? / Gabi Siboni and Daniel Cohen
How does the agreement impact on the possibility of greater Iranian involvement in terror? / Yoram Schweitzer and Benedetta Berti
Part III: An International View of the Agreement
Now that the agreement is signed, what should Israel's policy be toward Washington? / Oded Eran
What lies in store for the administration regarding the debate in Congress? / Shlomo Brom
What is Russia's Iran strategy on the day after the deal? / Zvi Magen
How are EU-Iran relations likely to develop? / Shimon Stein
What are the ramifications of the agreement for the global nonproliferation regime? / Emily B. Landau
Part IV: Regional Ramifications of the Agreement
How is the nuclear agreement likely to affect the Arab Spring? / Mark A. Heller
What are the implications of the agreement on Iran's influence in the Levant? / Udi Dekel and Omer Einav
How is the deal with Iran viewed in social media in the Arab world? / Orit Perlov
Will Saudi Arabia realize its nuclear threat? / Yoel Guzansky
Are Iranian-Turkish relations expected to change in the aftermath of the agreement? / Gallia Lindenstrauss
What effect will the agreement have on the Iraqi reality? / Carmit Valensi
Conclusion: How should we assess the reality created by the agreement?
Amos Yadlin