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Tensions during the month of Ramadan, which took place from February 27 to March 29, stem from a number of factors that influenced the dynamics between Israel and the Palestinians. First, the religious importance of Ramadan leads to a significant increase in the number of Muslim worshippers seeking to access the holy sites, particularly the al-Aqsa Mosque. This increase in the number of worshippers creates complex logistical and security challenges. Second, the month of Ramadan is a time of a heightened emotional and religious atmosphere, which sometimes translates into greater sensitivity to any event or incident. Third, extremist organizations on both sides sometimes exploit the tense atmosphere to promote political agendas and deliberately escalate the situation. Fourth, the intense media coverage of events during this period increases public awareness and amplifies sensitivity to any incident, large or small. Finally, the history of clashes during previous Ramadans creates a sense of anticipation for tensions, which influences the conduct of all parties involved. Understanding this complexity is essential for effective management of this period and for preventing unwanted escalation.

We monitored events that took place during the month of Ramadan 2025, reaffirming that this period remains one of heightened tension and requires increased vigilance from both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. We focused on monitoring the number of Muslim worshipers arriving at the al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. The data comes from the Wadi Hilweh Information Center (Silwanic), a local civil society initiative in the Silwan neighborhood of Jerusalem. The Center monitors events taking place in East Jerusalem, including the numbers of worshipers at Tarawih prayers (the special prayer that is only performed during the month of Ramadan) and on Friday mornings. The numbers of worshipers are consistent with reports from the al-Aqsa Mosque Waqf, the religious authority responsible for the area.

Despite the numerous reports from the Wadi Hilweh Informational Center about the barriers and difficulties encountered by Muslim worshippers, our analysis shows that more worshippers attended al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan 2025 than in the previous year. This suggests that Israeli policy may have been more moderate, allowing greater numbers of Muslim worshippers access to al-Aqsa Mosque—even amid the renewed fighting in Gaza. The consistency of the data collected in 2025 and 2024, which came from the same sources, allows for a reliable comparison between the two years.

According to the channel “Al-Assema,” a total of 2,190,000 worshippers attended the Tarawih prayers at al-Aqsa Mosque; 325,000 attended the Friday prayers, and 120,000 attended the Eid al-Fitr prayers. Like the Wadi Hilweh Informational Center, the channel also reported many restrictions imposed on residents of the West Bank who wanted to attend prayers in Al-Aqsa. The channel also claimed that 124 residents of Jerusalem—98 men, 10 women, and 16 minors—were arrested during Ramadan, along with dozens of West Bank residents who attempted to enter the al-Aqsa Mosque compound for prayer.

Furthermore, data from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) indicates that during the month of Ramadan, the number of Israeli casualties in the war in Gaza significantly decreased compared to the same period in 2024. It seems that as long as the fighting continues, a new reality of “normalization” under emergency conditions is taking shape—both on the Palestinian side and the Israeli side.

In conclusion, despite the relative improvement, it remains imperative to maintain a high level of vigilance and caution, as recommended by the National Security Council’s statement on April 1, 2025.

* Thanks to Noy Shalev for her assistance in writing this publication.