Publications

On December 8, 2024, Syria experienced a historic turning point with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. This dramatic development has ushered in a new phase of uncertainty and transition, offering both risks and opportunities. While it is still too early to determine Syria’s long-term trajectory, the new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has made cautious moves to stabilize the country. However, Israel’s initial reaction—shaped by security anxieties and the trauma of the October 7 attack—has resulted in a militarized and...

The map highlights the five IDF outposts located north of the Blue Line and marks areas where ceasefire violations have been recorded. Additionally, it documents Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah attacks on Israel during the Swords of Iron War, including Operation Northern Arrows. The map is continuously updated as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.

With the rise of an Islamist regime in Syria, a new reality has emerged that presents both risks and opportunities for Israel. Although Iran has been pushed out of Syria, it is expected to attempt to renew its presence there. Meanwhile, Turkey is playing a central role in Syria, a development that could lead to political and military friction with Israel—potentially escalating in an extreme scenario to direct military confrontation. At the same time, Turkey is likely the only actor with both the motivation and capability to deploy...

Russia emerged as the most dominant political and military force in Syria when it sent its troops to support the Assad regime at the height of the civil war in September 2015. However, with the downfall of the Assad regime, Russia now finds itself in a weakened position vis-à-vis the rebel forces. Until recently, Russia had launched airstrikes against them and classified them as terrorists; now it is dependent on the same rebels to ensure the security of its soldiers and its remaining military assets in Syria, while hoping that the...

On December 8, following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel launched Operation Arrow of Bashan in Syria. During the operation, the IDF operated in the buffer zone and took control of the peak of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side. At the same time, at least 136 Israeli airstrikes were carried out across the country, 65% of them targeting the western regions, including Damascus, Daraa, and Latakia. According to the IDF spokesperson, these strikes resulted in the destruction of 70%–80% of the Assad regime’s military...

The overthrow of the regime in Syria presents Jordan with an array of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Hashemite Kingdom is worried about instability on its northern border, the possibility that Iranian influence will be replaced by a Turkish one, and the export of Islamist revolutionary fervor from Syria to Jordan. On the other hand, it recognizes an opportunity to block the drug and arms smuggling routes between Syria and Jordan, return the Syrian refugees in Jordan to their homeland, and promote economic cooperation...

The developments in Syria present Israel with both new challenges and potential opportunities. The uncertainty surrounding the policy of the new regime under Ahmed al-Sharaa and the evolving situation on the ground necessitate that Israel maintain a high level of military readiness to cope with emerging threats, the unclear intentions of key actors—including Turkey—and the potential re-establishment of the Iran–Hezbollah axis within Syria. At the same time, al-Sharaa’s restrained statements regarding Israel, the presence of moderate...

The dramatic events unfolding in Syria create a window of opportunity for Israel to enhance its security situation by intensifying the damage to Iran and its Axis of Resistance and aiming to fragment the continuity of the axis and make any future recovery difficult. From Israel’s perspective, unlike in previous cases, the events in Syria are supported by a series of favorable developments that have emerged over the past year. These developments provide Israel with the opportunity to leverage its achievements against the Axis of...

The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...

Over the past decade, Iran and Hezbollah have consolidated their military presence in Syria as part of their joint vision of creating Shiite territorial continuity in the region and utilizing the country as a theater of conflict against Israel. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the Swords of Iron war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has refrained from directly intervening in the multi-front war against Israel, fearing that such intervention would be detrimental to his survival and position. Assad has also recently restricted the...