Publications

In light of the dramatic shift in the balance of power in the region following the confrontation between Israel and Iran—the restoration of Israeli deterrence; the open motivation of US President Donald Trump to bring an end to the war; the weakening of the resistance axis and its non-state actors; Hamas’s weakened and isolated state, dependent on the mercy of mediator states; the willingness of Arab states to engage and assist in stabilizing Gaza without Hamas rule—a window of opportunity has emerged to close the circle of war that...

The Data Analytics Center at the INSS provides accurate and updated data during the Swords of Iron War

 Since the renewal of fighting in the Gaza Strip, Gaza’s internal front has shown notable signs of change. Feelings of rage, despair, and a growing lack of trust in Hamas’s military and civilian leadership are laying the foundation for an internal uprising that could shake the political balance in the Strip. The slogan “Their lives are not worth more than our lives” reflects a fundamental shift in perception and a breaking of the barrier of fear. Demonstrators have been seen raising white flags—a clear symbol of surrender. Signs of...

As part of the reforms recently announced by Mahmoud Abbas, the PLO Central Council approved the appointment of Hussein al-Sheikh as deputy chairman of the organization—a position that did not previously exist. This step reflects Abbas’s response to pressure exerted by Arab states, chiefly Saudi Arabia, as well as other countries including the United States, in light of the complex ramifications of the war in the Gaza Strip and Abbas’s own intense anger—shared by Arab governments and Arab media—toward Hamas. This move is also likely...

The Israeli government has authorized the IDF to finalize preparations for “Gideon’s Chariots”—a plan to conquer the Gaza Strip and defeat Hamas, concentrate the population of the Strip in its southern region, and encourage emigration from it. The execution of this plan would come at a heavy cost: the killing of hostages and the loss of information regarding their whereabouts; additional casualties within the IDF; a decreasing likelihood of achieving normalization with Saudi Arabia; a deepening of internal divisions in Israel due to...

Tensions during the month of Ramadan, which took place from February 27 to March 29, stem from a number of factors that influenced the dynamics between Israel and the Palestinians. First, the religious importance of Ramadan leads to a significant increase in the number of Muslim worshippers seeking to access the holy sites, particularly the al-Aqsa Mosque. This increase in the number of worshippers creates complex logistical and security challenges. Second, the month of Ramadan is a time of a heightened emotional and religious...

User Guide: INSS Interactive Maps To the maps page https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=to8vyAsA73U To the maps page

After approximately a year and a half of war in the Gaza Strip, Israel stands at a crossroads and must formulate a relevant strategy regarding the future of the Strip. It faces a rather grim range of alternatives, all problematic in their implications and feasibility: encouraging “voluntary emigration”—an option whose strategic consequences have not been thoroughly examined in Israel and whose feasibility is low; occupying the Strip and imposing prolonged military rule—while this may severely weaken Hamas, it does not guarantee its...

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a simulation to examine the possible implications of a situation in which Israel, Hamas, the United States, and other actors in the Middle East find themselves at a decision-making crossroads due to a disagreement over the second phase of the hostage release framework. The simulation illustrated the strategic complexity of the situation in the Gaza Strip, the negotiations surrounding the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and the path toward ending the war. The...

Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea. Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...