Publications

The talks that began in April 2025 between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff—with Oman’s mediation—are bringing Iran, the United States, and Israel closer to critical moments regarding the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The results of the negotiations will largely determine whether the direction will be toward a political-diplomatic settlement on the nuclear issue or toward a military strike (Israeli, American, or joint) against Iran’s nuclear facilities. At this...

The nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States are continuing, with both sides expressing a preference for an agreement over military confrontation—even though, at this stage, it is impossible to assess whether they will succeed in bridging existing gaps or those that may arise later. For now, both parties have expressed optimism and appear to believe that there is value in deepening the talks. The meeting that was supposed to take place on May 3 will likely be held in the coming days. According to President Trump, who...

After the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the US Department of Defense undertook an extensive evaluation of the conflict, commissioning no fewer than 37 separate studies, including a still-classified seven-volume report on weapon systems. American military personnel walked the battlefields alongside Israeli commanders who had fought there, analyzing the strategies and technologies that enabled Israel to prevail against overwhelming odds. The lessons drawn from Israel’s battlefield successes would profoundly shape US military doctrine, directly...

The partisan divide over Israel in US public opinion has reached unprecedented levels. According to a benchmark survey released earlier this month, only one-third of Democrats compared to over four-fifths of Republicans have a favorable view of Israel. The rapidly expanding gap is the result of several long-term trends: the declining religiosity of the American public, increasing partisan competition across most issues areas, and a growing generational divide in attitudes about Israel. The war launched by Hamas in October 2023 has...

Since the beginning of his second term, President Trump has spoken about nuclear weapons several times, emphasizing their urgency and declaring his intention to address them after resolving the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. He also stressed the need to discuss arms control with Russia and China, as well as to cut defense budgets in half—particularly in the nuclear domain. This stands in contrast to his first term, which was characterized by a retreat from steps aimed at advancing disarmament and arms control, and...

Donald Trump assumed office as US president with a flurry of action. In these first weeks, his administration launched a series of unprecedented actions aimed at reshaping the United States through sweeping constitutional, political, and diplomatic changes. These efforts also sought to redefine the country’s role on the global stage by altering the terms of alliances and agreements that for years had been pillars of the liberal order, with the US at its center. Many of these measures could directly affect the State of Israel—some...

“Trumpism” is a disruptive strategy that creates both opportunities and risks by challenging fundamental assumptions. This disruption drives change, and its sophisticated exploitation should inform the development of new policies that could benefit Israel and the region. To some extent, the phenomenon of Trumpism is a response to the challenges facing liberal democracy and reflects public frustration with radical progressive policies. In the Middle East, this approach could open avenues for shaping a new regional order, strengthening...

In his second term, US President Donald Trump is unlikely to pursue the same Middle East policy as in his first. This shift stems from significant regional changes, including the decline of Iran’s power and its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” the renewed centrality of the Palestinian issue, and the growing strategic importance of the Gulf states in the great-power competition. President Trump’s generally favorable stance toward several regimes in the region, as well as his strong personal ties with key leaders, could generate...

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could bring significant global changes, intensifying competition among the great powers—the United States, China, and Russia. Trump’s “America First” policy, which defined his first term in office, is expected to continue shaping his administration’s foreign policy. The administration’s guiding principle will be “ending wars, not starting them,” emphasizing agreements that advance American interests from a position of strength. This approach will primarily rely on political and economic...

On November 20, 2024, the US Senate rejected three resolutions aimed at limiting the export of offensive weapons to Israel. The resolutions, introduced by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, were based on claims that Israel was failing to meet its obligations under international law in the war in the Gaza Strip. Despite their defeat, the resolutions garnered significant support among progressive Democrats—especially compared to previous similar resolutions—and also received backing from some liberal Jewish organizations. The willingness...