Publications

Iran’s responses to the talks between the United States and Russia on the future of the war in Ukraine, as well as the confrontation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, reflect internal divisions within the country’s two main political camps. The hardliners view the recent developments as reinforcing their position that the United States cannot be trusted. They argue that Iran must strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia and safeguard its strategic military assets, including its nuclear capabilities. In contrast, the...

The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency represents a particularly concerning scenario for Tehran. Despite initial attempts by Iranian official to downplay this development, it is clear that Iran is highly apprehensive about the election results, especially given reports that it had attempted to assassinate Trump and  his hawkish stance toward Iran during his first term. Furthermore, Trump’s return to office finds Iran at a critical crossroads. In the short term, it must decide on the timing and nature of its response to...

Frequent discussions in recent weeks between senior Russian and Iranian officials indicate a tightening of strategic ties between the two countries. From Russia’s perspective, the war in Ukraine and the military confrontations involving Israel represent interconnected elements in military, economic, and diplomatic spheres. Thus, Russia’s reliance on Iranian arms supplies amid its prolonged war in Ukraine underscores its attentiveness to Iran’s military and strategic needs. At the same time, the extent of Russian support for Iran...

The continuation of the détente trend in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Israel and Hamas, is contributing to Israel’s isolation in the region. In this article, we assess the regional détente implications for Arab countries and highlight the importance of advancing normalization between Israel and these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence and that of its allies, which could endanger Israel.

The delay in Iran’s promised military response against Israel, with the exception of Hezbollah’s targeted retaliation, raises the possibility that Iran could take revenge on the international stage. Over the past five years, Iran has significantly expanded the number and geographic scope of its international terror attacks, utilizing networks and terror cells that collaborate with criminal elements worldwide. Iran could leverage this established terror infrastructure to exact a price from Israel. The fact that most of Iran’s terror...

The tightening of relations between China and Iran is considered one of the main factors preventing the collapse of Iran’s economy, which has been subject to sanctions since the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018. This improvement in relations began at the height of the COVID-19 crisis when the two countries signed a long-term cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening their economic ties in the following years. However, in practice, this partnership has been very limited and fundamentally asymmetric. Despite...

In recent years, Iran has expanded its political, military, and economic foothold in Latin America in an effort to utilize to its advantage the political changes in the region, especially the rise to power of left-wing parties. Without the coordinated activity of the United States and its allies in Latin America, the spread of Iranian influence in the continent could reach levels that would threaten Israel’s fundamental interests in the region.

While Israeli attention is currently focused primarily on the assistance Iran provides to its proxies as part of the Swords of Iron war, Tehran continues to expand its activities across the African continent, thereby increasing the threat to Israel’s political, security, and economic interests in this region. In light of this, Israel needs to formulate a strategy to prevent Iran from achieving its goals in Africa.

In the ongoing conflict between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and following a resolution condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, Tehran announced an increase in the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Fordow and Natanz sites, effectively declaring its intention to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium. With the current quantities, Iran could, within a month of making a decision, begin enriching to military levels and produce enough enriched material for eight nuclear devices....

Iran was one of the first states to formulate a national cyber strategy, including development of the necessary state institutions and technological capabilities. Today, Iran is one of the more active states in the cyber realm, near the top of the second tier of global actors. Iran’s cyber attacks have demonstrated the potential to disrupt, sabotage and even destroy civil and commercial targets, critical national infrastructure and military capabilities, and its cyber espionage and information operations have been particularly...