Publications

Even after the conclusion of the war between Israel and Iran, the Islamic Republic continues to grapple with significant domestic challenges, namely a deepening economic crisis, ecological problems, shortages of water and electricity, and a widening gap between the regime and the public, especially the younger generation. About three months after the 12-day war, it does not appear that the conflict undermined the foundations of the Iranian regime. On the contrary, Israel’s strikes had, to some extent, the opposite effect, provoking...

In early August, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) announced the establishment of the “Defense Council,” which will operate under Iran’s president and will be composed of the heads of the three branches of government, representatives of the supreme leader, and senior military officials. Just as this was announced, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei appointed Ali Larijani as secretary of the SNSC and as his representative to this  Council. These organizational changes underscore Tehran’s ongoing effort to draw lessons and...

Israel did not make regime change a declared objective in its recent war with Iran; however, certain Israeli actions were clearly aimed at weakening the foundations of the Islamic Republic and encouraging the Iranian public to reignite their popular protest movement. As the dust settles, not only is there no evidence that Israel’s actions advanced this goal, but it seems that they may even have had the opposite effect (at least for the time being). Currently, several main scenarios could unfold in Iran’s domestic arena: the...

Iran’s responses to the talks between the United States and Russia on the future of the war in Ukraine, as well as the confrontation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, reflect internal divisions within the country’s two main political camps. The hardliners view the recent developments as reinforcing their position that the United States cannot be trusted. They argue that Iran must strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia and safeguard its strategic military assets, including its nuclear capabilities. In contrast, the...

The question of regime change in Iran has recently resurfaced in light of its weakening following the Israeli strike, the serious blow to the pro-Iranian axis—culminating in the collapse of the Assad regime—and the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This article argues that if Israel makes a strategic decision to promote regime change in Iran (regardless of its feasibility or the possible alternatives to the current regime), the means and methods for achieving this goal should be assessed according to two...

Regional developments are posing challenges to Iran and the pro-Iranian axis it leads, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the main elements of its deterrence against its enemies. These elements include Iran’s use of “proxies,” its strategic military capabilities (missiles and drones), and its nuclear program. Recent months have revealed shortcomings in Iran’s security concept, which could lead to different approaches among the Iranian leadership. This may result in limited adjustments or a more strategic shift, especially...

The tightening of relations between China and Iran is considered one of the main factors preventing the collapse of Iran’s economy, which has been subject to sanctions since the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018. This improvement in relations began at the height of the COVID-19 crisis when the two countries signed a long-term cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening their economic ties in the following years. However, in practice, this partnership has been very limited and fundamentally asymmetric. Despite...

On August 11, 2024, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian submitted his proposed government to the Majlis for approval. Its composition reflects a balance between diverse political forces, both conservative and pragmatic alike, highlighting the constraints and limitations facing Pezeshkian as he navigates the main centers of power in Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The president has refrained from assigning ministers with distinctly reformist views to major government ministries, which the conservative establishment regards...

On March 1, 2024, elections were held for the Iranian parliament, the Majles, and the Assembly of Experts. Despite the anticipated victory for the conservatives, these elections held significant importance as they marked the first substantial test of the regime’s power since the widespread wave of protests that swept Iran in 2022 and against the backdrop of a likely power struggle to take over the country in the coming years. Despite calls from senior regime officials urging the public to vote, the Interior Ministry reported a...

Recent months have seen Iran engaged in a diplomatic campaign designed to breach its international isolation and the sanctions regime. In this framework, Iran seeks membership in international organizations that challenge Western dominance. It has already been accepted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and has been invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as a member of BRICS. In addition, Iran’s President and a number of ministers visited Asia, Africa, and Latin America in an effort to tighten political,...

Recent weeks have seen a spirited public debate within the Islamic Republic concerning the participation of many Iranians in Shiite religious ceremonies and the significance of such activity for the status of religion in Iranian society. The debate is unfolding against the background of profound trends in Iran over the past few decades, including rapid secularization, the erosion of clerical authority, Westernization, and modernization. Nonetheless, these trends do not necessarily indicate a full shift toward secularism as understood...

Egypt and Iran have recently been discussing the possibility of normalizing diplomatic relations between them for the first time since 1979. This historic move may serve various interests of both countries, yet there are still some reservations, especially on the part of Cairo. Egypt is currently reviewing the nature of the change in Iran’s conduct following its normalization with Saudi Arabia in April 2023, and has been attentive to the views of the Gulf states and the Unites States regarding possible moves moves. Normalization...