Publications

The four agreements and declarations achieved in 2020 between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, respectively, represent a breakthrough in the regional peace process, and perhaps even an opening for other Arab and Muslim countries to join the process of normalization with Israel. This paper assesses the importance of these agreements for Israeli national security in the broadest sense, and recommends a series of measures for enhancing the existing accords and extending normalization to other...

People-to-people relations, over the long term, support more durable and expansive relationships between countries and thus strengthen peace agreements. ◆ Peace agreements between US partners in the Middle East serve as a force multiplier against actors who seek to destabilize the region. For this reason, among others, Washington should seek to ensure the success of normalization. ◆ Despite initial optimism and excitement, a number of challenges to creating meaningful people-to-people relationships between the United Arab Emirates...

Foreign Ministry Director-General Alon Ushpiz’s recent visit to Morocco represents an opportunity to inject momentum into the bilateral relationship, six months after the two countries announced the resumption of diplomatic ties. The kingdom’s recent outreach to Hamas, while disturbing, should be understood in the context of Morocco’s domestic political scene and Rabat’s desire to see Washington maintain American recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in the Western Sahara. Moving forward, Israel should focus its efforts on quietly and...

The recent appointment of a new unified government in Libya has fueled cautious optimism that the war-torn North African country may finally be stabilizing after a decade of chaos and conflict. But numerous obstacles remain, not least the ongoing involvement of external actors in Libya, where a broader regional conflict between competing camps has played out alongside an ongoing struggle for influence between Russia, Europe, and the US. Turkey, Russia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates retain varying degrees of influence in the...

A decade after the regional upheaval, the struggle over the shape of the Middle East continues to play out in two realms: over the regional order, between four camps seeking to advance their ideology and interests; and within the states, between rulers and publics clashing over fundamental economic, social, and identity-related problems that have not been resolved since the Arab Spring and have even intensified. 2020 saw a decline in the confidence of the Iran-led Shiite axis; a rise in the assertiveness of the axis led by Turkey; a...

Turkey’s military intervention in Libya has recently enabled a series of victories for the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), to the detriment of Khalifa Haftar and his backers in Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Moscow. The reversal of fortune for the GNA, which over the weekend forced Haftar to propose a ceasefire, marks a major shift in the trajectory of the Libyan civil war and will likely cement Turkey’s role as a key arbiter in the ultimate resolution of the conflict. Should the recent developments prove...

The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...

The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...

Nine years after the dramatic events of late 2010 and early 2011 (the so-called Arab Spring), the regional upheaval persists and the Middle East continues to be characterized by instability, uncertainty, and volatility. There is broad consensus among researchers and observers that the region is mired in a deep crisis, while undergoing processes with crucial long term implications and engaged in a turbulent contest over its character. This struggle is unfolding in two realms: first, between four main camps competing over ideas, power,...

The November 27, 2019 signing of the maritime delimitation agreement between Turkey and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, has heightened concerns among many countries in the Eastern Mediterranean. The deal will negatively affect Turkey’s relations with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel; pose further challenges to the already questionable plans for the EastMed pipeline; and raise the stakes for outside actors involved in the Libyan civil war, likely...