Publications

The visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington—with the designation of Saudi Arabia as a “major non-NATO ally” at its center—reflected a US effort to lock Riyadh more firmly into the American camp in an era of great-power competition. For the United States, this means deepening the security framework with Saudi Arabia, ensuring major investments and access to advanced technologies, and integrating the move into a regional architecture built around the Abraham Accords and gradual normalization with Israel. This...

__________________ Overview The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...

Israel’s standing with the American public has plunged to an unprecedented nadir. Traditional support among Democrats has collapsed, and support among Republicans has eroded. The decline is most pronounced among young people on both sides of the political map. Within the Jewish community as well, support has declined and criticism has mounted. American sentiment toward Israel has been directly and negatively affected by Israel’s conduct in the war against Hamas, and particularly by the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. Israel...

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published two alarming reports regarding Iran’s nuclear program. One report addresses Iran’s past activities at sites not declared to the IAEA, for which Tehran has failed to provide satisfactory explanations. The second report concerns the current status of the program and indicates an acceleration in the accumulation of highly enriched uranium, enabling Iran to enrich to military grade for 10 nuclear bombs within days. Both reports are expected to be discussed at the upcoming IAEA Board...

President Donald Trump completed his first diplomatic visit of his second term in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, signaling that these countries hold personal significance for him—not just for the United States. The outcomes of the visit provided the leaders of these states with an opportunity to showcase a broad convergence of interests, particularly those that are visible. This visit, along with recent moves by the US administration in the Middle East, has contributed to a growing sense that Israel is being...

The nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States are continuing, with both sides expressing a preference for an agreement over military confrontation—even though, at this stage, it is impossible to assess whether they will succeed in bridging existing gaps or those that may arise later. For now, both parties have expressed optimism and appear to believe that there is value in deepening the talks. The meeting that was supposed to take place on May 3 will likely be held in the coming days. According to President Trump, who...

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could bring significant global changes, intensifying competition among the great powers—the United States, China, and Russia. Trump’s “America First” policy, which defined his first term in office, is expected to continue shaping his administration’s foreign policy. The administration’s guiding principle will be “ending wars, not starting them,” emphasizing agreements that advance American interests from a position of strength. This approach will primarily rely on political and economic...

In the ongoing conflict between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and following a resolution condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, Tehran announced an increase in the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Fordow and Natanz sites, effectively declaring its intention to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium. With the current quantities, Iran could, within a month of making a decision, begin enriching to military levels and produce enough enriched material for eight nuclear devices....

US President Joe Biden’s decision to present the “Israeli plan” for a hostage deal and a ceasefire between the IDF and Hamas appears to have been motivated by an assessment that Israel’s military campaign had run its course. Despite the administration’s view that Hamas is responsible for the delay in reaching a hostage deal, Biden clearly believed that revealing the Israeli proposal would encourage Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision—notwithstanding the bitter domestic arguments in Israel between those who support...

Joe Biden is reportedly one of only two US presidents to have given serious consideration to a defense treaty with Israel. A number of Israeli premiers have weighed a defense treaty over the years, primarily as a means of offsetting security concerns and public qualms regarding concessions in peace talks. Counterintuitively, perhaps, Israel’s defense establishment has long been opposed. This study analyzes the pros and cons of a bilateral defense treaty from both the Israeli and American perspectives and proposes ways of addressing...

Israel’s plan to launch a military offensive in Rafah is at the center of the growing disagreement between the United States and Israel. The Biden administration is pressuring Israel to avoid such an operation, stating that Israel can achieve its objectives through other means. This adds to the existing differences between the two countries, including the US demand for Israel to establish a clear post-war strategy and address the humanitarian situation in Gaza. These topics, along with a possible hostage deal in exchange for a...

The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded its quarterly meeting held on March 4–8, and once again no resolution was adopted against Iran. This is despite the IAEA report leaving no doubt that Iran is vigorously advancing its nuclear program and preventing the agency from exercising its oversight responsibilities. The United States and European countries reacted strongly to the report but refrained from demanding that the Board of Governors take practical action against Iran; however, they...