Publications

On December 8, 2024, Syria experienced a historic turning point with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. This dramatic development has ushered in a new phase of uncertainty and transition, offering both risks and opportunities. While it is still too early to determine Syria’s long-term trajectory, the new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has made cautious moves to stabilize the country. However, Israel’s initial reaction—shaped by security anxieties and the trauma of the October 7 attack—has resulted in a militarized and...

On December 8, following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel launched Operation Arrow of Bashan in Syria. During the operation, the IDF operated in the buffer zone and took control of the peak of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side. At the same time, at least 136 Israeli airstrikes were carried out across the country, 65% of them targeting the western regions, including Damascus, Daraa, and Latakia. According to the IDF spokesperson, these strikes resulted in the destruction of 70%–80% of the Assad regime’s military...

The developments in Syria present Israel with both new challenges and potential opportunities. The uncertainty surrounding the policy of the new regime under Ahmed al-Sharaa and the evolving situation on the ground necessitate that Israel maintain a high level of military readiness to cope with emerging threats, the unclear intentions of key actors—including Turkey—and the potential re-establishment of the Iran–Hezbollah axis within Syria. At the same time, al-Sharaa’s restrained statements regarding Israel, the presence of moderate...

The dramatic events unfolding in Syria create a window of opportunity for Israel to enhance its security situation by intensifying the damage to Iran and its Axis of Resistance and aiming to fragment the continuity of the axis and make any future recovery difficult. From Israel’s perspective, unlike in previous cases, the events in Syria are supported by a series of favorable developments that have emerged over the past year. These developments provide Israel with the opportunity to leverage its achievements against the Axis of...

The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...

Over the past decade, Iran and Hezbollah have consolidated their military presence in Syria as part of their joint vision of creating Shiite territorial continuity in the region and utilizing the country as a theater of conflict against Israel. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the Swords of Iron war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has refrained from directly intervening in the multi-front war against Israel, fearing that such intervention would be detrimental to his survival and position. Assad has also recently restricted the...

After restoring his status in the Arab world and emerging from the political isolation imposed on Syria with the outbreak of the civil war, Bashar al-Assad continues to benefit from the revenues of the Captagon drug trade, which is produced in Syria and floods the Middle East. The Captagon trade poses risks to Israel, as it is a significant source of funding for the regime, Hezbollah, and other Shiite proxy organizations, as well as by using drug smuggling routes to transfer weapons from Jordan to the West Bank and Gaza Strip....

Since the outbreak of the war on October 7, underway along the Lebanese border as well as inside the Gaza Strip, the Israeli media has highlighted the determination of people evacuated from northern communities not to return to their homes until the security situation improves. This is mainly due to fears of a ground attack against their communities. Surveys conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reflect these sentiments, but also indicate that – contrary to the public and media discourse – the public in...

Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Israel has become engaged in a multi-front conflict with forces that have attacked from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. In contrast, apart from a few incidents executed mainly by Palestinian groups, it does not appear that an active front against Israel is forming in Syria. Although the mood in Syria is generally supportive of the Palestinians (alongside criticism of President Bashar al-Assad, the axis of resistance, and the international community), Assad is not interested in supporting Hamas, as the...

The Campaign Between Wars (CBW) is the term given to the IDF’s significant offensive activity over the past decade. What began in 2013 as specific, targeted actions with limited objectives, developed into an extensive campaign in physical and geographical terms and was anchored in the IDF operations approach, with far-reaching strategic ramifications. CBW did indeed demonstrate advanced capabilities in intelligence and aerial action. But at the end of a decade and in view of significant changes in the region, there is a need to...