The delay in Iran’s promised military response against Israel, with the exception of Hezbollah’s targeted retaliation, raises the possibility that Iran could take revenge on the international stage. Over the past five years, Iran has significantly expanded the number and geographic scope of its international terror attacks, utilizing networks and terror cells that collaborate with criminal elements worldwide. Iran could leverage this established terror infrastructure to exact a price from Israel. The fact that most of Iran’s terror...
Although Hezbollah and Iran are not yet interested in a large-scale war, Israel’s campaign against Lebanon could escalate under two main scenarios: (1) If Hezbollah continues to fight against Israel as long as the war in Gaza persists or if Iran requests that the Lebanese-based group becomes more involved in its campaign against Israel; (2) If Israel launches an extensive operation that ignores the “rules of engagement” with Hezbollah, aiming to change the security situation on the northern border and facilitate the return of the...
Israel has been fighting against Hezbollah along the northern border since October 8. The combat escalation in recent weeks, after the IDF intensified its operations, has included targeted assassinations, and there is concern that the situation could deteriorate into all-out war. An interim assessment of the situation suggests that Hezbollah, which seeks to maintain the operational equation against the IDF, has fewer achievements than it hoped for. Its most significant achievement was the result of the Israeli decision to evacuate...
A series of provocations by Hezbollah has caused rising tension along the border between Israel and Lebanon. The most severe recent incident involved the tents erected in the Mt. Dov area, which Israel considers to be within its territory. These provocations, along with the heightened threats by the organization, reflect Nasrallah’s increasing confidence, or at least his readiness to take greater risks vis-à-vis Israel. This confidence is grounded in his belief that the internal crisis in Israel undermines IDF capabilities and the...
Cracks in Israel’s deterrence against Hezbollah are evident following the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction in mid-March 2023 by a Palestinian who crossed the border from Lebanon, and the rockets fired by Hamas from southern Lebanon into Israel during the month of Ramadan – compounded by the internal crisis in Israel. Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for the Megiddo attack, despite clear evidence of its involvement, and it remains unclear to what extent it was involved in the rocket fire from areas of southern Lebanon that...
The internal crisis and the widespread protests in Israel, together with the escalation of Palestinian terror, reinforce Nasrallah’s perception that Israel’s internal weakness is overwhelming, and persuade him of Hezbollah’s ability to deter and confront Israel in the event of a military conflict. Invoking his previous spider web metaphor regarding Israeli society, he declares that Israel is on the brink of a civil war and that the state is approaching its end. This perception also underlay the dispute with Israel over the agreement...
Current Situation – Economic crisis and continued Iranian entrenchment in Syria · Hezbollah maintains military buildup · Lack of governance and economic collapse in Lebanon | Current Israeli Strategy – Campaign between wars in Syria and mutual deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah · Non-intervention in Syria or Lebanon on the political level | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Hezbollah’s ongoing buildup and Nasrallah’s false sense of confidence are escalation catalysts · No Israeli strategy vis-à-vis the Lebanese state ·...
Over the past two years, about 13 terrorist attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) against Israeli and Jewish targets were publicly revealed and foiled on four continents. In addition, attempts to attack former senior officials in the US administration and Iranian opposition targets in New York and London were thwarted. These events point to Iran’s focused activity in the use of terrorism in the international arena without being deterred by the results of this activity. Prominent in these events is the use of...
Over the last few months Hezbollah has waged an intensive cognitive campaign involving kinetic, diplomatic, and economic tools over the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which would allow both countries, and not just Israel, to produce gas. With the announcement that an agreement was reached, Nasrallah and the leaders of Hezbollah declared they had achieved victory in this campaign against Israel. It is difficult to decide whose strategic achievements were greater in the current battle over the maritime border and...
Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed...
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