Volume 25
No. 1, March 2022
The Many Faces of Normalization: Models of Arab-Israeli Relations
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
The 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and four Arab states heralded a new model of normalization. While Israel has a “cold” peace with Egypt and Jordan—which exists mainly between the governments—a “warmer” model of peace has developed with UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, even sans progress on the Israeli-Palestinian issue and the inherently negative meaning of the Arab term for normalization (tatbi’). This article maps three models of normalization in Israel’s relations with Arab countries and the Palestinians over the years. The...
The Legitimacy Crisis of the Conscription Model
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
The heated public debate on the mandatory draft in Israel invites a broad discussion of the legitimacy crisis of the model, particularly as the majority of the Jewish public support abolishing compulsory service. The conscription model is beset and weakened by contradictions that have resulted from in-depth social processes, including a growing civil-liberal and neoliberal socioeconomic discourse and a decline of the republican ethos. Moreover, the military itself exacerbates these and other contradictions, mainly the incongruence...
The Evolution of Russian Strategy toward Israel: From Non-Recognition to Pragmatic Engagement
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
Offering an overview of the last thirty years of Russia-Israel relations, the article focuses primarily on the Kremlin’s strategies, tactics, and interests toward Israel, as well as points of friction between the two states, under Boris Yeltsin and especially under Vladimir Putin. The article first reviews Russia’s approach to the Middle East and Israel in the 1990s as an extension of Russia’s overall domestic and foreign policies. It then turns to Putin’s Russia and the relations with Israel within the broader scope of Russia’s...
The United States Withdrawal from Afghanistan after Two Decades of a Global War on Terrorism
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Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
In the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, the United States assumed the leading role in the war against terror by attacking al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime, which afforded protection to al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. The expanded commitment by the US and its allies to rebuild Afghanistan, combined with the renewed global terrorist threat, prolonged the war. In the Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020, the US undertook to withdraw its forces in exchange for a promise by the Taliban that it would not help terrorist organizations...
Russian Energy Cooperation with North African Countries
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
With the first Russia-Africa Summit in 2019, Moscow announced its historic comeback to Africa after almost 30 years of a limited presence. In fact, however, throughout this period, Russia had been active across North Africa, and energy politics were at the core of Russian cooperation with the local powers. Conceptualizing the Russian energy landscape in regional energy politics, the article contends that despite the dominant perception of Russia as a power-seeking geopolitical expansion through its energy projects in North...
From Delegitimizing to Harming a Reputation: What Should Israel Do?
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
An overview of the past decade shows that aside from a few sparks, the delegitimization campaign and the attempt to boycott Israel did not succeed in igniting serious operational damage—economic or other. This is in part thanks to proactive and systematic activity by the State of Israel and civil society organizations against the various boycott attempts. However, in-depth examination reveals a more significant process for Israel, whereby residual damage from the cognitive measures in the delegitimization campaign leads to ongoing...
At the End of the Day, Bashar al-Assad
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
The war in Syria is over, and Bashar al-Assad’s regime of has weathered the tumult. However, it is weakened, stripped of power and resources, and hard-pressed to impose its authority in the state. Moreover, Russia and Iran continue to maintain their presence and influence in the country. Yet notwithstanding the regime’s weakness, there is no evident alternative. All the respective domestic, regional, and international actors understand this, and are ready to renew the dialogue with the regime, recognize it, and thereby grant it...
The Struggle over Communications: The United States vs. China in the Biden Era
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
The fate of the United States Clean Network program that was launched during President Trump’s term of office in order to combat the technological rise of China in the field of communications and information is not clear under President Biden. However, Chinese-American rivalry in the field of communications technology is not expected to ebb as long as Beijing continues to grow stronger and compete with Western technologies. Israel is advised to identify the next loci of friction between the two great powers in order to manage the...
India Looks West, the Middle East Looks East: India, the Gulf States, and Israel
Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
India’s relations with the Arab Gulf states, headed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have improved steadily since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, evidenced by closer economic relations and now extending into the security-military field. The central axis of relations between India and the Gulf states was and remains the economy. India is an important destination for oil and gas from the Gulf and a supplier of workers to the region. At the same time, closer relations also reflect developing strategic...
Opening All Combat Positions in the IDF to Women
Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
Over the years there has been progress on the integration of women in the IDF, and more positions are now open to them, including service as soldiers in combat units deployed along the border. However, women are still denied the option of trying out for units in assault forces and elite units. In contrast, in most countries in the Western world, which in the past saw less integration of women than did the IDF, there has been progress that has led to the opening of all positions to women. This article considers what the IDF can...
Becoming an Empire Again is not Easy: Turkey in the Erdogan Era
Gallia Lindenstrauss
Strategic Assessment -Book Reviews, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
Soner Cagaptay, a leading researcher of contemporary Turkey at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy, has written a book of wide scope about Turkish foreign policy over the past two decades. The book is important for the Israeli audience mainly for its emphasis on the Middle East, and Israel-Turkey relations in particular receive considerable attention. Cagaptay’s main argument is that while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s predecessors sought to strengthen Turkey through the West, Erdogan sought to make Turkey a...
The World According to Haass: A Concise Guide
Strategic Assessment -Book Reviews, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
Richard Haass is troubled by the fact that students in the United States can complete their studies at the best universities without understanding the world, globalization, and economics, or even how the American administration works. His declared purpose in this book is to “provide the basics of what you need to know about the world, to make you more globally literate”.
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Territorial or Existential?
Strategic Assessment -Book Reviews, Volume 25, No. 1, March 2022
Many books written about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict try to explain why the parties have not been able to achieve the desired peace. Australian scholar Bren Carlill also tries to decipher this conundrum in his new book, introducing a dichotomous model that distinguishes between two conceptions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: territorial and existential.
Volume 24
No. 1, January 2021
In Search of a Regional Order: The Struggle over the Shape of the Middle East
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Strategic Assessment, Regional Architecture and Strategic Competition, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
This article describes the regional architecture of the Middle East today using a systemic approach and employing terms like “regional order” in the sense of a dynamic structure rather than an organized, static arrangement. The central argument is that the defining feature of the regional order in the last decade has been a growing struggle over the shape of the Middle East, playing out on two levels: a clash between competing camps seeking to shape the contours and dominant features of the broader regional order, and a...
“Hollow Sovereignty”: Changes in the Status of the Arab Nation States One Decade after the Upheaval
Carmit Valensi, Kobi Michael
Strategic Assessment, Regional Architecture and Strategic Competition, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
Weighty processes took place during the Arab Spring that inter alia affected the status of the nation states in the Middle East and undermined their sovereignty. From the perspective of the ensuing decade, it appears that territorial borders and state frameworks were preserved, and sovereignty was therefore ostensibly maintained. This article proposes a more complex analysis of the term “sovereignty,” and presents the various ways in which sovereignty was manifested among countries in the region in 2010-2020. We propose...
The Erdoganian Amalgam: The Ottoman Past, the Ataturk Heritage, and the Arab Upheaval
Gallia Lindenstrauss, Rémi Daniel
Strategic Assessment, Regional Architecture and Strategic Competition, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
The rise to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey in 2002 brought many changes to Turkish foreign policy. During the party’s first terms, soft power predominated in Turkey’s foreign relations, and Turkey expanded and deepened its relations with many Middle East countries. Since 2016, however, Turkey has reverted increasingly to the use of hard power tools, and its relations with many political actors in the Middle East have become increasingly hostile. This article assesses the changing pattern in Turkey’s...
Salafi-Jihadism in the Decade following the Arab Spring: Down and Up and Down Again
Yoram Schweitzer
Strategic Assessment, Regional Architecture and Strategic Competition, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
Early in the decade that began with the Arab Spring, the Salafi-jihadist camp led by al-Qaeda was at a low point following the killing of Osama bin Laden and most of the senior leadership. However, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, who succeeded bin Laden, was able to exploit the events of the Arab Spring and the civil war in Syria, which he transformed into a new “jihad arena.” The establishment of the Islamic State in 2014 split the Salafi-jihadist bloc into two competing camps; by the end of the decade, after the Islamic State was defeated...
Toward a New “Solution”? Islamic Ideologies in the Middle East a Decade after the Uprisings
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Strategic Assessment, Ideas and Ideologies, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
In an area riven by a decade of war, political shockwaves, and identity crises, it appears that the dominant Islamic factions operating in the Middle East—Sunni and Shiite, moderate and extremist, establishment and revolutionary—have reached a physical and ideological nadir. This downturn is evident despite the fact that at some point or another since the upheaval of the Arab Spring, each of these strands identified an opportunity to leverage its vision and translate it into political, military, economic, and cognitive gains. This...
Iran, the Shia, and the Arab Upheaval: The Ideological Response
Strategic Assessment, Ideas and Ideologies, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
The deepening rift in the Middle East between the Sunni majority and the Shii minority has harmed Iran’s efforts to consolidate its status as the leader of the Islamic world. To mitigate the rift, Iran has worked on several ideological levels: the first is the effort to prove that the rift has no deep ideological or historical roots, and that all Muslims, Sunnis and Shiis, must unite against the real enemies of Islam—the United States and Israel. As part of this endeavor, Iran has sought to abolish various Shii practices that...
The Civil State vs. the Secular State in Arab Discourse: Egypt as a Case Study
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Strategic Assessment, Ideas and Ideologies, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
This article is the result of collaboration between the authors, one a researcher from Bar Ilan University who deals with state-religion relations in Egypt, and the second an Egyptian sociologist, a lecturer at Ain Shams University, and one of the founders of a new movement calling for secularism in Egypt. The article proposes a contextual analysis of the principle ideas of this secularization movement, as presented by Shalaby at the annual conference of the Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies at Tel Aviv University in May...
The Arab Spring Then and Now, through the Prism of Public Opinion
Strategic Assessment, Public Opinion, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
Mass popular discontent inspired the Arab Spring a decade ago, but its violent failures leave a very different legacy today. Surveys show that many Arabs now prioritize stability and economic sustenance over politics, revolution, or even religion. Most accept coexistence with Israel, and even more despise Iran and its sectarian allies, who have turned the Arab Spring into civil wars. Among Arab states, many leaders are highly attuned to public opinion and invest in attaining credible data for use as a tool in policy formulation....
Demographic and Economic Developments in the Arab World, 2010-2020
Strategic Assessment, Demographics and Economics, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
Some 100 million people live in the Middle East in countries that have been been affected by civil wars or are failed states. One of the results has been high unemployment, especially among the young, a phenomenon that has severe economic, social, and political consequences in oil rich states, as well as in the much poorer states with little or no oil. This article examines economic and demographic developments in the Arab world between the beginning of the Arab Spring in late 2010 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,...
Political Trends in the Middle East: A Glimpse into the Future?
Strategic Assessment, Between the Regional and the Global, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
The primary trends that have emerged in the Middle East in the last decade fall into two interrelated and complementary groups. The first reflects the impact of global trends and the second can be traced to regional currents. The ten years since the Arab Spring have changed the Middle East. The new reality manifests itself in an increased demand for social and economic reforms, which in turn contributes to a high level of internal instability, i.e., to new waves of social unrest. Concern about the US intention to cut back its...
US Engagement and Disengagement in the Middle East: Paradox and Perception
Strategic Assessment, Between the Regional and the Global, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
This article examines how key actors in the Middle East came to view the United States as disengaging from the Middle East in the decade following the Arab Spring uprisings. This perception was evident not only in the statements from key officials across the region, but more importantly, in the actions of principal regional actors, particularly from 2015 to 2020. The article argues that it is a paradox that the United States is perceived as withdrawing from the region given the scope of the US military presence and the importance...
China’s Evolving Approach to the Middle East: A Decade of Change
Strategic Assessment, Between the Regional and the Global, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
As a global superpower, China’s engagement in the Middle East has become increasingly important for the region and beyond. China’s relations in the Middle East under President Xi Jinping have been pragmatic and trade-oriented. Although the energy sector remains the most important area of cooperation, Beijing has expanded its reach over the last decade, and the region has become a growing market for Chinese products, including affordable consumer goods, technology, and services. The Belt and Road Initiative, large investments in...
Roundtable: Israel and the Middle East, One Decade after the Arab Upheaval
Carmit Valensi
Strategic Assessment, Professional Forum, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
This special issue of Strategic Assessment examines various aspects of the upheaval that erupted in the Middle East a decade ago. The roundtable summarized below sought to focus on the impact of the Arab upheaval on Israel, where Israel stands in the regional arena following the upheaval, and the effects on Israel’s strategic, political, and social situation. Participants included scholars and experts from different disciplines, including Middle East studies, political science, security, sociology, and economics.
From a Dyadic Sunni-Shiite Contest to a Tri-Polar Rivalry: Interventions in post-Arab Spring Conflicts
Strategic Assessment, Academic Survey, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
The regional turbulence following the 2010-2011 popular uprisings in several Arab states, commonly known as the “Arab Spring,” caused significant changes in the region’s norms and codes of behavior. Indeed, one of the most prevalent contentions regarding the Arab Spring is that it encouraged many Middle East states to disregard the non-interference norm in favor of a more active role in other states’ affairs. However, while there was certainly an extensive increase in the volume of non-military involvement in some of the conflicts...
An Arab Spring only in Tunisia—Elsewhere, an Arab Winter
Strategic Assessment, Book Review, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
It is easier to say what Noah Feldman’s newest book is not, than to describe what it is. It is not a comparative study on what is called the “Arab Spring,” which surveys the historical, political, socioeconomic, and demographic background of the Arab states as the backdrop to the events of the past decade. Nor is it a panoramic look at all the states in the region. The author, a professor of law at Harvard University, chooses to examine only a few countries in the Arab world—Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, and Iraq—and the Islamic State of...
ISIS in Its Own Words: The History, Strategy and Ideology of the Islamic State
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Strategic Assessment, Book Review, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
Since 2014, ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has become both a well-known brand name in the global discourse and al-Qaeda’s successor as the leading actor in the global jihad movement. Yet despite the enormous media exposure it has received, relatively very little was known about ISIS in the first few years after it declared the establishment of a caliphate and began a global terrorism campaign: its early history, before 2014, was almost unknown, and key figures in the organization—aside from its leader at the time, Abu...
Epilogue
Strategic Assessment, Epilogue, Volume 24, No. 1, January 2021
Looking ahead to the next few years, it seems that one thing is clear: nothing is clear. What lies before us is radically different from the post-1945 international scene, which while roughly divided into two distinct periods, was in both cases anchored in distinct and somewhat predictable themes: first the Cold War, and then, after the imploding of communism in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the unquestioned American hegemony. The current scene, by contrast, is in total flux, heightened of course by the...
No. 2, April 2021
By Sling and by Stone: A Strategy of Technological Reduction
Eviatar Matania,
Strategic Assessment – Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
In recent decades, scholars have commonly thought of military superiority as contingent on advanced military technology. So did national security establishments, which dedicated an increasing share of military buildup efforts to the development and acquisition of advanced systems. As such, what options are available to the side that suffers from inherent technological inferiority? This article introduces, discusses, and demonstrates a strategy of technological reduction for military force buildup strategy, which calls for the...
From “Decision” to “Victory”: Resolving the Confusion in Israeli Military Terminology
Strategic Assessment – Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
This article traces the relatively late evolution of the Hebrew term hachra’a [decision] in its military context in Israeli society and examines the ensuing conceptual confusion. It also points out the many original and borrowed meanings that have been attributed to this term over the years in military contexts and elaborates on the dangers inherent in this trend, especially obfuscation of the meaning of “victory.” This conceptual failure is expressed not only in the IDF’s language, but also, and more critically, in IDF...
The Security Element in Israel-Africa Relations
Strategic Assessment – Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
Over the past decade Israel’s relations with African countries have grown closer, and in tandem, the importance of security ties and security exports invites special scrutiny. This article discusses the warming of Israel-Africa relations, and focuses on the role played by security ties. Review of Israel’s security ties in general and with Africa in particular is absent from academic research and surfaces only minimally in the media and public discourse, in contrast to the wide-ranging discussion of Israel’s civilian ties with the...
Tribalism, Religion, and State in Bedouin Society in the Negev: Between Preservation and Change
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Strategic Assessment – Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
This article deals with Bedouin society in the Negev, which is positioned on Israel’s social, economic, and geographic margins. Using Bourdieu’s field theory, it examines the three main fields in which Bedouin society is active: tribalism, religion, and state. It then demonstrates the dynamic between the fields in the tension between preservation and change by analyzing four issues: higher education, polygamy, the call of the muezzin, and police stations. The principal findings indicate that tribal norms currently determine...
New Zealand, COVID-19, and National Security: Lessons for Crisis Management
Strategic Assessment – Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent example of a natural threat, a category that includes earthquakes, tsunamis, fires, and floods. States must regularly grapple with natural threats, along with man-made threats such as terrorism and wars. Such threats challenge the traditional definition of the concept of national security, especially in terms of how to properly address them, but they have not yet earned their rightful central place in national security doctrines. Disasters on a similar or even larger scale than those already...
Recent years have witnessed attempts by foreign entities to intervene in democratic systems and covertly influence election processes. These attempts are carried out using social media or internal actors that are part of the political discourse and promote intentional radicalization of the discourse. Many countries understand the severity of the phenomenon, and accordingly, address it through specific bodies and tools, including legislation, technology, security, intelligence agencies, and designated integrated teams. However, the...
The Fly on the Elephant’s Back: The Campaign between Wars in Israel’s Security Doctrine
Strategic Assessment – Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
Senior officials within the IDF and the Israeli security establishment see the campaign between wars as an alternative to preparation for war. In their view, resources should be channeled to the campaign between wars, at the expense of building a more powerful war fighting machine. This paper challenges this idea and argues that the IDF’s ability to achieve decisive victory is the foundation for the deterrence that allows freedom of operation in the campaign between wars. Evidence of this can be seen in the main theaters of conflict,...
The Intelligence Factor in Negotiations, Absent Too Often
, , Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment – Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
Negotiation management requires setting up a professional and permanent intelligence framework, which utilizes the capabilities of the intelligence community—in the context of this article, the Israeli intelligence community—in order to address specific information, needs, and tasks. Its mission: supporting decision makers with intelligence and assessments on a strategic level, and the negotiation team on a tactical one.
Is Iran Really Turning from Islamic Theocracy to Military Autocracy?
Raz Zimmt
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
With the approach of the Iranian presidential elections, there is increased discussion in Iran and in the West surrounding the possible election of a “military president,” who will come from the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards and channel his military skills to the severe domestic and external challenges facing the Islamic Republic. While the standing of the Revolutionary Guards has strengthened in recent decades, and they play a prominent role in politics and the economy, any discussion of the...
Five Domestic and Regional Security Challenges for Jordan in 2021
Strategic Assessment – Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
Jordan, a close ally of the United States and Israel, has a particular set of security concerns, challenges, and threats. Since its founding as the Emirate of Transjordan in 1921, many predicted that a kingdom with artificial borders, a tiny population, and lack of natural resources was an unlikely viable state. However, Jordan’s pragmatic policies and wise leadership, cordial ties with Arab states, and commitment to a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has helped Jordan navigate many difficult challenges. The...
The Future Job Market in the Gulf States: The Challenge of Migrant Workers
Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment – Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
Shockwaves in the energy market and the COVID-19 pandemic have repositioned the issue of migrant workers higher on the Gulf agenda. The recent economic damage has forced the Gulf states, which have the world’s highest concentration of foreign workers, to re-examine the employment model in the area. Some wish to turn the crisis into an opportunity—to shake the dust off the reforms needed in order to provide a solution, even partial, to the problem, or at least to limit its consequences. This article assesses the phenomenon of foreign...
Are Municipalities Becoming the Most Significant Civil Authority?
Strategic Assessment – Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
The COVID-19 crisis demonstrated the significant and deepening role of municipalities and local governments in different policy areas. Beyond the exigencies of the pandemic, there has been a growing trend of decentralization worldwide over the past few decades, which has given local governments more power and authority. Elements characteristic of local governance, such as stability, flexibility, and the capacity to handle issues that are polarizing at the national level play a central role in this trend. Moreover, the use of...
Time for an Orderly Process to Update Israel’s National Security Strategy
Orna Mizrahi
Strategic Assessment – Book Reviews, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
The lack of a contemporary national security concept in Israel has long been criticized by figures in the security establishment, academia, and politics. Chuck Freilich’s book Israeli National Security: A New Strategy for an Era of Change is an extraordinary enterprise in its scope, and is an important milestone toward realizing the vision of a regulated process to update the national security concept, which has not received an official seal since the days of David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first Prime Minister, and has since been...
The General Staff: Management and Decision Making
Strategic Assessment – Book Reviews, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
At the outset of World War II, “the results of the German General Staff’s thinking and decision making on the battlefield outdid those of its French counterpart” (p. 11). This is what Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi wrote in the preface to a new book about the IDF General Staff by Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dr. Meir Finkel. Kochavi here underscores the importance of the General Staff and its ability to influence a campaign, in the present and in the future.
United States Policy in the Middle East: A History of Challenges, Responses, and Failures
Strategic Assessment – Book Reviews, Volume 24, No. 2, April 2021
This book is a collection of articles written by various scholars, mostly American and Turkish or people of Turkish descent, and based on papers presented at an international conference held at the University of Istanbul in the spring of 2016. This background is evident both in the choice of the contributors and in the problematic structure of the book.
No. 4, November 2021
The Practice of “Roof Knocking” from the Perspective of International Law
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
Israel first employed the practice of “roof knocking,” whereby warning shots are fired at the roof of a building defined as a military target, during Operation Cast Lead, and has used it in subsequent operational strikes in the Gaza Strip. UN Human Rights Council commissions of inquiry have determined that the practice is an ineffective means of warning and amounts to an attack in itself, and thus does not uphold international law. Examining the legality of roof knocking from the perspective of international law, this article argues...
The Beginning of the End of the Arab-Israeli Conflict?
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
In its familiar format, the Arab-Israeli conflict is fading away. The peace treaty with Egypt in 1979 marked the end of the beginning of the conflict, and we are now witnessing the beginning of the end. This is not the dream of peace that was promised by the Oslo process. The threats to Israel may have actually increased, because the Arab enemy of yesterday was far less dangerous than the Iranian enemy of today. Nor does it mean that the radical Arabs fighting Israel are any less determined or ruthless. It certainly does not signal...
European Funding for Palestinian NGOs as Political Subcontracting
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
For two decades, the European Union and individual states of Western Europe have been major funders of Palestinian non-governmental organizations (NGOs), under banners of economic development, peace, and human rights. European governments together provide approximately €35 million annually to a small and largely unchanging group of selected organizations. The recipients are substantial political and economic actors, and are among the leaders of intense soft power conflict, voicing repeated allegations of fundamental Israeli...
The Securitization of the Bi-National State: The Oslo Accords 1993-1995
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
While military measures are the most prevalent means for confronting security threats, non-military means such as diplomacy and peace agreements offer an alternative recourse for countries as they seek to overcome existential threats. This article contends that Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s decision to promote the Oslo Accords was essentially a security move to counter the threat of a bi-national state. Using securitization theory, which explores the process of how issues transform into security threats, the article analyzes how...
Israel-Indonesia: Nurturing People-to-People Ties without Diplomatic Relations
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
Indonesia, which has the largest Muslim population and is the world’s third largest democracy, is an important and growing Southeast Asian power. Indonesia stresses emphatically that diplomatic relations with Israel cannot be instituted before an independent Palestinian state is created with its capital in East Jerusalem. It bases this position on Indonesia’s constitution, which obligates opposition to colonialism. The commitment by Indonesia’s Muslim majority to the Palestinian cause, primarily out of strong religious feelings,...
Relations between the political and military leaderships in democratic countries are a frequent subject of academic research and often cause for suspicion. This is likewise the case in Israel, where security issues are at the core of state business. Since Israel was founded, relations between the leaders of the two echelons have traditionally maintained a reasonable balance between controversies and agreement. In recent years, this balance has appeared to be at risk, due mostly to politicization caused by the substitution of...
Is Ethiopia Collapsing? Implications for Israel and the Region from the Tigray War
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Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
A bloody civil war has waged for the past year in the Tigray region of Ethiopia between the Ethiopian federal army and its allies and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The significant operational achievements by the rebel forces in recent months have raised doubts regarding the federal government’s ability to impose its authority over the country and rebuff other separatist threats, and may even threaten its political survival. Meanwhile, the instability and violence are spilling over beyond the local combat zone,...
Here to Stay: Iranian Involvement in Syria, 2011-2021
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and driven by the ideology of exporting the revolution, Iran has bolstered its efforts to expand its regional influence. The events of the last decade, marked by the Arab Spring, the undermining of traditional state frameworks, and the ongoing weakening of the pan-Arab system, gave Iran a unique opportunity to achieve this objective, including the attempt to consolidate territory under its control from Iran to the Mediterranean coast. Focusing on Iran’s tightening grip on Syria, this article...
Parliamentary Oversight of the Security Establishment and Security Policy from the Perspective of Six Years of Experience as an Active MK
Ofer Shelah
Strategic Assessment - Professional Forum, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
The Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee is unique among the Knesset’s committees in both its disciplines and its mode of operation. An examination of the Committee’s work from the perspective of one who served on it in senior roles, however, reveals structural and conceptual faults that prevent optimal fulfillment of the Committee’s purpose—overseeing Israel’s foreign policy and security bodies. The weakness of government and civilian oversight of the security establishment renders this failure even more serious. This...
The Palestinians as We Have Never Seen Them
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
What does the world know about the Palestinians, their daily routine and their ambitions, apart from the fact that they are “victims of occupation”? Indeed, occupation is not pleasant, and Palestinian lives are marked by major hardships, including long lines at roadblocks, limited access to water, and confiscation of land. At the same time, according to this book, which presents the stories of some 30 Palestinian men and women from different areas, Palestinians are optimistic, determined, and talented. The individuals portrayed...
A Conflict Difficult to Explain
Yohanan Tzoreff
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
In Why Peace? Shimon Carmi explores the causes and processes that led the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to turn to a peace process that culminated in the signing of the Oslo Accords. The author examines the issue on the basis of political science theories dealing with the abandonment of the military option by terrorist organizations or resistance movements and their moving toward political processes. These theories are reviewed at length, and through them he seeks to answer the central question in the book.
A Post-Zionist Perspective on the Death of the Two-State Solution
Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 24, No. 4, November 2021
Prof. Ian Lustick of the University of Pennsylvania, who specializes in modern history and Middle East politics, analyzes the death of the two-state paradigm as a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since in its place, he contends, a one-state reality has been created, this must be the focus of the current debate. According to his approach, therefore, the emphasis should be on finding ways for Jews and Arabs to live together in full equality in the expanse between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
Volume 4
No. 1 | March 2020
The Secret War of Cyber Influence Operations and How to Identify Them
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
Social media is an effective way of influencing human society and behavior and shaping public opinion. Cyber influence operation means using cyber tools and methods in order to manipulate public opinion. Today, many countries use cyberspace, and specifically social media, to manage cyber influence operations as part of holistic information warfare. Most of these operations are done covertly and, therefore, identifying them is challenging; moreover, it is not an easy task to differentiate between legitimate or malicious influence...
Iran’s Activity in Cyberspace: Identifying Patterns and Understanding the Strategy
, , Gal Sapir
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
This essay presents the evolving Iranian cyber activities with the purpose of identifying patterns that presumably form the cyber strategy applied by the regime to external and internal threats. The paper initially describes Iranian cyber operations, based on information released by the Islamic Republic and reports published by cyber security firms. The work then follows with an analysis of Iranian cyber activities. The article draws the characteristics and dynamics of Iran’s cyber activities, both externally and internally,...
Ambiguous Approach— All Shades of Gray
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
This essay aims to examine conflicts in the “gray zone.” The paper is divided into three sections. The first section describes the gray zone and defines the ambiguous approach that corresponds to it. It argues that measures short of war, coercive gradualism, and deliberate obscurity are the crucial ingredients of the ambiguous approach. The second part discusses the ambiguous approach as a dependent variable, identifying the lack of power and lack of legitimacy to use force as the key drivers for adopting the ambiguous approach....
Cybersecurity and Information Security: Force Structure Modernizations in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
Since 2012, the Chinese government under Chairman Xi Jinping has taken steps to assume the role of a global power, including a sweeping modernizing of its military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), in order to transform it into a force capable of projecting power. Notably, in 2015, the PLA formed the Strategic Support Force as a separate service, concentrating all of its satellite and network operations forces, including cyber operations forces, into a single, high-profile organization. This policy choice to reorganize the PLA...
Chinese investments in Sri Lanka: Implications for Israel
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
This article addresses Chinese projects in Sri Lanka, some of which are within the Belt and Road Initiative, in order to draw insights to be applied to the Israeli sphere. Moreover, the article will try to answer whether, and to what extent, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative “belongs to the world,” as is written on its official website,or whether this is an expression of the Chinese drive for influence that may lead to a new Chinese world order.1 The article presents the Belt and Road Initiative alongside arguments against it. It...
Criminal Law as a Tool for Dealing with Online Violence among Youth
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
This article seeks to examine whether criminal law is equipped to deal with the phenomenon of online violence among youth. In many cases, criminal law is not the optimal way to deal with online violence; therefore, it should only be used as a last resort, while being particularly cautious, especially when violence is not the result of a “criminal” nature but rather is the nature of the internet, which leads normative minors to carry out prohibited acts. The preferred means is to deal a-priori with the phenomenon, namely, to focus on...
National Cybersecurity Strategies in the Healthcare Industry of Israel and the Netherlands: A Comparative Overview
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
The rapid pace of society’s technological innovations has created a set of transformative opportunities in the healthcare industry, notably elevating the quality of life while subsequently serving as a permeable arena for cybercriminals. The core function of healthcare is maintaining people’s well-being and, in some cases, it constitutes a meaningful portion of national economic output. Growing cybersecurity risks to the critical infrastructure sector pose a threat to national security, prompting government response. This study...
Cyber and Artificial Intelligence— Technological Trends and National Challenges
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
Autonomous systems based on artificial intelligence are playing an increasingly meaningful role in everyday life in a variety of fields, including industry, medicine, the economy, and security. Because they are computerized, these systems are exposed to coding errors, which may lead to incorrect decision making and the execution of unwanted actions. In addition, they are vulnerable to cyber attacks that may harm or completely suspend their activity. This article examines the risks posed to autonomous systems as a component of the...
Cyber Colonization: The Dangerous Fusion of Artificial Intelligence and Authoritarian Regimes
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 4 | No. 1 | March 2020
While generally the advancement and development of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructures is lauded as having the potential to open up a brave new world of positive cyber capacity, there is a decidedly darker underbelly to this potential currently underway. States like China aggressively market the transfer of advanced AI technology around the globe, particularly to allies across the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. Far from just being about participating in the global economy or developing...
Volume 23
No. 1, January 2020
Predation and Predators in the Post-Alliance Era
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
At the global level and in many individual regions, the last seven decades have been an uncharacteristically structured period of history. Underwritten by the United States, the international system was grounded in economically and politically liberal values. This era is now fading, while in parallel, other processes are unfolding and hastening the advent of a post-alliance era, which will be more brutal and trickier to navigate than the outgoing order. For Israel, there are at least two implications. First, Israel will have an...
Russia and the Global Balance: A Middle East Perspective
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
Contrary to what many had expected, the global balance that emerged since World War II has not evolved into a unipolar world, and a stable new balance is not apparent. The Middle East has now given Russia a chance to assert itself as a major actor, and for Moscow the region has become a testing ground for the development of its own future foreign policy. The challenge of working out a new balance is at the top of the global agenda, and Russia must necessarily be involved in addressing it. Those who want to respond to this...
Shortcomings in the Appointment Process for the IDF Chief of Staff
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
Despite his powerful role, the IDF Chief of Staff is not appointed in a transparent process. There is thus room for a public debate prior to the appointment of the Chief of Staff, initiated by the media and agents of civil society, through which the public will be exposed to the mark left by the candidates in their previous roles and to their stances on issues over which the Chief of Staff wields decisive influence.
The Main Challenges Facing Strategic Intelligence
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
This article analyzes the main contemporary challenges facing strategic intelligence, particularly in Israel and the United States. These challenges derive from shrinking trust in state institutions; the decline in the status of truth in the post-truth and fake news era; the “addiction” bordering on absolute dependence of commanders and decision makers on operational and tactical intelligence; and the inherent limitation of the ability of intelligence to influence leaders’ vision and ideology. Although these are not new challenges,...
The Middle East has long been considered one of the most conflict-ridden areas in the world. The ongoing events over the past decade of the “Arab Spring” that intended to march the Middle East toward a more positive future have instead deepened regional instability, fanned existing conflicts, and sparked new turmoil. This study examines with conflicts in the Middle East and the way in which they end in comparison to global trends. It offers an additional perspective on Middle East conflict research through data and quantitative...
A New Role for the Public in Climate Politics: the Effect of Social Media
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Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
In light of Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential elections, the public discourse regarding the influence of social media in politics has seen a resurgence. In this environment, teen climate activist Greta Thunberg has attracted global attention following the rapid spread of her school strikes for climate movement through social media. With nine million followers on Instagram alone, Thunberg has leveraged social media platforms to magnify her call to action on climate change, highlighting the ability of social...
Tectonics, Techno-economics, and National Security: The Strategic Clash between the United States and China, and Implications for Israel
Assaf Orion
INSS Insight No. 1192, July 15, 2019
A series of “volcanic” eruptions are reported around the world: “trade war,” mutual imposition of tariffs, sanctions on companies, military signaling in the South China Sea, summits between leaders, and temporary “ceasefires.” All are manifestations of the historic clash between the “tectonic plates” of the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China. Like the processes that shaped the earth, the collision will shape the landscape for future generations:...
Artificial Intelligence and Policy: A Review at the Outset of 2020
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Strategic Assessment - Academic Survey, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
Among the rapid technological changes marking the contemporary era is the notable leap in the development of artificial intelligence applications that pertain to many areas of life, and hence the need to formulate policy in the field. Recent years have seen a major increase in policy research in the context of computing technology and artificial intelligence. Studies deal with a range of fields such as security and international affairs, arms races and the balance of power, cyber, ethics, and more. A number of leading research...
How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
When one thinks of the age of colonialism, one generally thinks of the British Empire, the French colonial empire, Spain and Portugal, and perhaps even imperial Germany and Japan. However, Daniel Immerwahr, in How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States, discloses and examines the mostly overlooked empire of the United States.
Leading from the Front and from Behind
Eldad Shavit
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
In his new book, “Storm” toward Iran, Ilan Kfir describes at length and in great detail Israel’s policy in 2009-2019 on the Iranian question. The focus of the book is the author’s assertion that three times in 2009-2012, Israel was on the verge of launching an air attack on the nuclear sites in Iran, but due to a host of different considerations some of them pertinent and others not the IDF plan was not carried out.
Holy Simplicity: How Believers in “a Palestinian State Now” Seem Unable to Cast Aside their Willful Blindness
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
This edited volume seeks to help Israeli readers understand the historic attempt of the Oslo process to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and to analyze the reasons for its failure. The editors, and Prof. Shimon Shamir in his preface, insist on the importance of this effort, so that if and when the parties return to serious negotiations, they will be able to learn lessons from the failure and achieve a more successful result. Based on this analysis, the book also presents concrete proposals for what most of its authors...
Divisions and Disputes
Anat Kurz
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 1, January 2020
Drawing on extensive research and based on a wealth of data and testimony, this book by Dr. Shaul Arieli explores the debate about Israel’s borders as a process developing over time in light of “the reciprocal influence between geopolitical changes in the international, regional, and above all local system, and changes in the demographic-populated space.” The book consists of three main sections: the first discusses the definition of the term “border” in its practical application and includes related historical examples; the second...
No. 2, April 2020
Emergency, Resilience, and the Big City
Meir Elran, ,
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
In many respects, Israel is one large city, or a diverse urban network of sorts, and will certainly remain so as it becomes even more crowded. This has far-reaching security implications, especially in expected conflict scenarios. If these scenarios materialize, the Israeli home front will have to cope with a large scale attack against population centers and critical infrastructure waged with unprecedented quantities of various weapons, particularly high-trajectory weapons of different sorts. The vast majority of weapons of this type...
Integrating the Counterintelligence Discipline into Israel’s Security Concept
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
In recent years, as terrorism has evolved into a global threat, a debate has arisen in Israel and in other democratic countries on the role of counterintelligence. However, discussion and thinking in Israel on the subject of counterintelligence has not received the attention it deserves in academic research and the public discourse on security compared to other national intelligence issues, and the topic remains in the shadows and almost unknown to the public. Israel’s security concept does not address internal security challenges...
The Cognitive Campaign: Myth vs. Reality
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
Discourse on the cognitive campaign has increased in recent decades, accompanied by many practical efforts by governments around the world. However, in the excitement surrounding the cognitive campaign, insufficient attention is paid to its inherent fundamental problems and lapses. There is no agreed and systematic definition of the concept, and the result is the inclusion of a large spectrum of phenomena under the broad umbrella of “cognitive campaign.” In addition, there is relatively little study of the outcome of the campaign,...
The American-Israeli Dialogue at the Start of the First Lebanon War
Zaki Shalom
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No.2, April 2020
In their meeting a few weeks after the start of the First Lebanon War (June 1982), Prime Minister Menachem Begin and US President Ronald Reagan focused on the military conflict underway. Given the disturbing images on television of the destruction caused by Israeli attacks in Lebanon and the many demonstrations around the world protesting Israel’s acts in the war, President Reagan was obliged to express his criticism regarding Israeli activity in Lebanon. However, the criticism was moderate, and included a clear message that the...
Compositional and Operational Flexibility in the “New Wars”: Military Mission Formations and Collective Action
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
In contemporary conflicts, militaries participate in multi-member mission formations: temporary structures established for specific missions and composed of diverse armed forces, governmental organizations, and civilian entities. To achieve flexible, coherent, collective action, these formations must be designed to be adaptable both to in-theater conditions and to external demands and expectations about how armed force is used. The article’s analysis is integrative and synthetic: integrative in that it incorporates diverse sources...
The Geopolitical Effects of the Corona Crisis
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
This essay focuses on evaluating the geopolitical effects of the coronavirus crisis on the key conflicts in contemporary world politics. In liberal eyes, the outbreak of the coronavirus seems to justify the liberal arguments about the global and trans-national nature of threats to all of humankind. Such threats should compel large scale international cooperation among states and the construction of powerful international institutions. At the same time, there are some grounds for concern that the post-coronavirus world might be less...
Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis in Iran: The Regime and the Public
Raz Zimmt
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
The coronavirus outbreak in Iran has exposed a series of weaknesses and failures in the regime’s management of emergency situations. The regime, which was slow to handle the crisis and has tried to hide its scope, has once again been exposed as helpless in the face of structural challenges such as internal power struggles, institutional redundancy, ideology prioritized over pragmatic considerations, and economic constraints. For its part, the government has tried to provide stopgap measures and immediate solutions, and to date there...
The Yemeni Civil War in Flux: Where is it Headed?
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
The Arab Spring reached Yemen in 2011 at a moment when both popular and elite support for Yemen’s then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh were low, leading to the disintegration of a triumvirate that had ruled Yemen for decades. Since then, efforts to formulate a new configuration of national governance through dialogue, civil war, external intervention, and negotiations failed to yield results. Although Israel is not an influential player in the theater, it does have interests that could be affected by developments there: containing the...
Riyadh and Beijing are deepening their economic ties and expanding them in other areas as well. Overall, Saudi-Chinese relations enjoy relative stability but remain limited, inter alia due to China’s lack of interest in deeper involvement in the Middle East at the present time. Aware of Washington’s sensitivities, Riyadh and Beijing do not want to invite pressure from the United States. Saudi Arabia understands that there is no good alternative to the US security guarantees at the present time, but doubts about the credibility...
National Identity: The Political Idea that Refuses to Disappear
Strategic Assessment - Academic Survey, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
National identity has always commanded much attention among social scientists, but recent years have shown increasing interest in the subject, evidenced by new and fascinating studies. Renewed engagement with national identity is connected to political processes around the world in recent years that have changed international politics immeasurably. The rise of the political right in Europe, Britain’s departure from the European Union, and the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States—events in which national...
Where is Israel Going? Inner Challenges Facing the Jewish and Democratic Identity of the State of Israel and an Outline for Confronting Them
Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
In Where is Israel Going? Moshe Hellinger examines as indicated by the book’s subtitle challenges to the Jewish and democratic identity of the State of Israel and proposes a framework for confronting them. The author explains that while the integration of Jewish and democratic perspectives is a convention embedded in the heart of the Israeli Jewish consensus, some circles in Israeli society call this into question whether questioning the Jewish aspect, the democratic aspect, or the synthesis between them. The book paints an...
Sudden Attack: About the Past or the Future?
David Siman-Tov
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
In Surprise Attack, Uri Bar-Yosef returns to an issue that has engaged him in many of his books, namely, the collapse of warning systems in Israel and the personal responsibility, as he sees it, of the heads of the intelligence community for the lapse. In addition to the Yom Kippur War, about which he has written previously, here he examines, in his fluent and wide-ranging style, other familiar surprise attacks in the 20th century: Operation Barbarossa (the German invasion of Russia in the Second World War) and the Korean War.
The Chief of Staff Put to the Test
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 2, April 2020
Unlike other Western countries, in Israel the Chief of the IDF General Staff, commander of the armed forces, is perhaps the most important person in the country after the Prime Minister on all matters of security. He is familiar with the use of military force, he commands the body responsible for the organized staff work most relied on by the government, and he is usually the most experienced man in the room, since most other ministers arrive for cabinet debates with almost no prior relevant knowledge.
No. 3, July 2020
Israel and the Arab World: Breaking the Glass Ceiling
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
Relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors seem poised to embark on a path of mutual cooperation. This new reciprocity stands in marked contrast to the relations of Israel’s first decades, and reflects a transition from hostility, hatred, and rejection to coexistence and perhaps peace and cooperation, even if this change stems from the lack of other options. These new relations also reflect the changing face of the Middle East of recent years: the weakening of the Arab states, the decline of Arabism, and the rise of Israel to...
American Contributions to Israel’s National Security
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the American contributions to Israel’s security in a historical perspective. The concept “security” is defined here in a broad sense. Contributions include military aid; supply of modern and advanced weapons; joint development of revolutionary weapons; joint military maneuvers; intelligence sharing; efforts to thwart nuclear threats; resistance to lawfare; and mediation to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. In several of these areas, such as military and intelligence issues, both sides...
The UN and Israel: From Confrontation to Participation
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
Over the years Israel-UN relations have been mixed. On the one hand, the decisions condemning Israel within the different institutions of the UN reflects the hostile attitude toward Israel. On the other hand, Israel’s acceptance as a member of the Western European and Others Group and the gradual change in the voting patterns of developing countries indicate an expanding positive orientation toward Israel. The purpose of this article is to survey the primary trends in Israel-UN relations, with a focus on the change in Israeli policy...
Shifting Sands of Time: India’s Approach toward Israel
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
Over the past hundred years India’s policy toward Israel has faced numerous challenges and prompted different approaches. While there were no problems or disputes with Israel, India pursued a policy of recognition without relations. The end of the Cold War, the shift in Middle East dynamics after the Kuwaiti crisis (1990-1991), and India’s economic growth prompted India to chart a new course that better reflects its interests and its desire to project its strength. Although normalization has been in place for over a quarter of a...
The "Mobileye Effect" in Latin America-Israel Relations, 2009-2019
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
This article analyzes relations between Latin American countries and Israel over the past decade (2009-2019) and argues that Israel’s strengthened image as a technological leader with an entrepreneurial culture plays a key role in what is perceived as its being closely identified with Asia in Latin American eyes. This, along with other developments, has led Latin American countries to start viewing Israel as a new and intriguing source for technology. This trend is almost across the board and irrespective of the political situation...
Israel’s Foreign Policy in the Test of 2020
, Shimon Stein
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
In many countries, the inauguration of a new government is a time to review important policy issues, including foreign policy. The parties comprising Israel’s new government are different from those of the governments in the past decade, which in itself is a reason for a reassessment. Furthermore, global and regional processes over the past decade mandate reconsideration of current policy and adaptation to the new situation. Prominent among these processes are game changers such as the struggle between the United States and China,...
Israel’s Policy in its Triangular Relations with Greece and Cyprus
Orna Mizrahi
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
The Israel-Greece-Cyprus triangular framework constitutes a new element in Israeli foreign policy, and since the framework was inaugurated in January 2016, cooperation between the three countries has expanded. The initiative in creating the triangle came from Greece and Cyprus, but Israeli policymakers were quick to spot the opportunity and boost the tripartite framework with content and activity. The approach by the Israeli establishment is a positive example of inter-organizational cooperation, especially between the National...
Truly a Paper Tiger? Russia as a Challenge to Israeli National Security
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
Russian policy in the Middle East poses a challenge to Israeli national security interests, and this will not change as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. On the other hand, dialogue with Moscow and political maneuvering between Moscow and the West has proven successful in offsetting the dangers to Israel and cultivating new possibilities. Israel should continue its dialogue with Moscow, strengthen the lateral communication channels (beneath the leadership echelon), and exercise caution to avoid injury to Russian soldiers and assets...
Between Intelligence and Diplomacy: The information Revolution as a Platform for Upgrading Diplomacy
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
The subject of this article is the new opportunity facing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the intelligence community to upgrade the work of Israel diplomatic missions and staff, through closer and more effective connection to the work process of the intelligence community. It focuses on the opportunity to transform the reality whereby the intelligence arm of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is engaged in the work of intelligence as an accompanying body, and promote it as a vital body that receives and contributes information in...
Discussion of Israel’s Foreign Policy
Kobi Michael,
Strategic Assessment - Professional Forum, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
The July 2020 issue of Strategic Assessment focuses on the theme of Israeli foreign policy and national security. To complement the articles in this issue, we held a discussion with former senior figures from the Foreign Ministry and researchers on foreign policy. Our goal was to shed light on a number of issues relating to the status of the Foreign Ministry from a historical and contemporary perspective, the contribution of foreign policy to national security, and the challenges facing the Foreign Ministry in the wake of the...
The Unrealized Potential of Israel’s Relations with Arab States: Regional Cooperation Hindered by the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Strategic Assessment - Academic Survey, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
Israel’s relations with Middle East states have undergone many significant upheavals, and over the years have fluctuated between bitter, bloody wars and covert cooperation. The peace agreement with Egypt widened the spectrum even further and opened the door to official civil and economic partnerships. Advances in peace negotiations with Palestinians in the 1990s brought about a peace treaty with Jordan, and even led to a short blossoming of relations between Israel and other Arab states. This period ended with the second intifada and...
Israel among the Nations
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
The book by Prof. (Emritus) Uri Bialer about Israel’s foreign policy opens by closing a circle. Bialer reports that one of the experiences that sparked his interest in the history of Israeli foreign policy was a course he took in 1970 with Prof. Michael Brecher at the Hebrew University. Brecher, a famous and prolific political scientist from McGill University in Canada, who at age 95 is still active in the field, published in 1972 the most important academic study on Israeli foreign policy: The Foreign Policy System of Israel:...
A Review on the book “War Rather than Peace: One Hundred Years of Nationalism and “Militarism in Israel
Meir Elran,
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 3,July 2020
Sociologist Uri Ben-Eliezer has written an important and interesting work, challenging in both quantitative and qualitative terms. The book is quantitatively demanding because of its length and the broad historical ground that it covers from the period of Hashomer and the Jewish Brigades, to recent hostilities with Hamas in Gaza. The result is a wealth of details regarding the events that Ben-Eliezer has chosen to examine. The book is qualitatively challenging because it draws on more than one hundred years of dynamic Jewish history...
Israel-EU Relations from a European Domestic Perspective
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 3, July 2020
European Jewish communities afford researchers a perspective on complex communities that influence Israel and other communities within and beyond the European arena, and in the global arena. European Jewish communities prior to the Second World War comprised almost 60 percent of the Jewish population worldwide, and today comprise a mere 10 percent (around 1.3 million). These communities are primarily located in Western and central Europe in member states of the EU, which constitutes a global power with ethical and normative...
No. 4, October 2020
IDF Strategy Documents, 2002-2018: On Processes, Chiefs of Staff, and the IDF
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
Writing and releasing strategy documents has become a norm in the IDF in the last two decades, though most were published internally within the military. This article presents the contents of the documents published from 2002 to 2018, focusing on several questions: Why was it published; what needs does it address? What was the process of developing the knowledge, and what staff work was required to prepare it? How was the Chief of Staff involved in this process? What are the main changes from previous documents? After presenting the...
Containment over Decision: Internalizing the Limits of Political Militarization in Israel
Kobi Michael, ,
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
Security threats play an essential and influential role in Israeli discourse, and some claim that this encourages and strengthens the militaristic approach of Israeli society and its political and military echelons. In practice, however, Israel has demonstrated military restraint over the last decade. This ostensible contradiction is the focus of this article, which examines political, military, and civilian realms, as well as the political civil control over the IDF. Israeli society can certainly be defined as culturally...
Research in the Intelligence Community in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
, David Siman-Tov
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
By their very nature, intelligence communities are ideal customers for new information technologies. This article addresses two questions: How do new information technologies, primarily artificial intelligence, contribute to the intelligence community’s research activities? What challenges are posed by the assimilation of artificial intelligence in this field? The integration of artificial intelligence in strategic research may provide intelligence agencies with enhanced capabilities in helping leaders understand an emerging reality,...
A Play in Three Acts: Could Egypt be Drawn into a Perfect Storm?
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
Egypt is experiencing the dangerous dynamic of simultaneous crises in different arenas, creating a complex and multidimensional threat to its national security: possible military defeat in the proxy war in Libya and growing Turkish influence in the arena; unilateral moves by Ethiopia in the Renaissance Dam crisis and the direct consequences for the Egyptian water economy; and the Covid-19 pandemic and worrisome signs of an emerging widespread economic crisis. How Egypt handles these threats will be a test of the government and the...
China-Bahrain Relations in the Age of the Belt and Road Initiative
Strategic Assessment - Research Forum, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
China’s relationship with the Gulf countries revolves around energy demand and the new Silk Road strategy, and indeed, Bahraini and Chinese economic interests and geopolitical stakes converge across this new strategy. Nonetheless, a critical question is how close the political and economic relationship between China and the GCC in general, and Bahrain in particular, can become when a strategic alliance with the US covers each of the GCC members. Notwithstanding Western fatigue and the decline of US hegemony in the Middle East,...
The United States and Israel vs. the Syria of Bashar al-Assad: Challenges, Dilemmas, and Options
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
The crisis that began in March 2011 with the outbreak of the revolt against Bashar al-Assad’s regime is now in its tenth year. The intensity and complexity of the crisis derive to a great extent from the fact that almost from the start it has been conducted at three levels: domestic, regional, and international. The United States and Israel are among the countries involved in the crisis; they are influenced by it and affect how it unfolds. At the same time, although Israel has profound interests in Syria and considerable military...
Egypt and Ethiopia on a Collision Course: And Where Lies Israel?
Ofir Winter,
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
The tension between Cairo and Addis Ababa reached a boiling point in July 2020, when Ethiopia began filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This followed years of fruitless talks aimed at formulating understandings and months of accelerated discussions, including negotiations mediated by the United States and the African Union, which have thus far come to naught. For both sides this is a strategic, “existential” issue with practical and symbolic repercussions, which renders a compromise difficult. Israel has an...
Engulfed in Dispute? The Future of the Gulf Cooperation Council
Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
The diplomatic, economic, and transportation boycott by the Arab Quartet against Qatar is in its fourth year. The crisis, which is more severe than previous crises between the countries, casts a shadow over the notion of Gulf unity. The idea of unity, which originated even before some of the countries became independent, is the principle underlying the founding of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Despite the common challenges facing the Arab Gulf monarchies, above all the Iranian issue and the question of United States commitment to...
China’s Core Interests and the Rising Tension with the United States: Implications for the World Order
Strategic Assessment - Policy Analysis, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
The term “core interest” began to appear frequently in Chinese official statements in 2003, and has been used increasingly as China’s sense of strength and self-confidence has grown. For China, core interests refer to issues on which its position is not subject to negotiation and compromise, and which justify the use of force to defend it, if necessary. The South China Sea region became a substantial addition to these interests following the election of Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China in late 2012,...
The Rise and Fall of the Kurdish Project in Northern Syria
Gallia Lindenstrauss
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
The book by researcher Harriet Allsopp and journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg about the Kurds in northern Syria is essential reading for anyone interested in the fate of this minority during Syria’s civil war. The Kurds in Syria are a relatively small group compared to the Kurdish minority in Turkey, in Iran, and in Iraq (estimates at the outbreak of the Syrian civil war were that they numbered some two million people). Their percentage of the total population of Syria was small (around 10 percent, similar to the proportion of Kurds...
Response to Changes in the Strategic Environment
Meir Elran
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
Uzi Rubin’s new book is based on his doctoral dissertation, entitled “The Degree of Flexibility of the Defense Establishment in Israel in Comprehending the Changes in Its Strategic Environment: Active Defense as a Test Case.” This academic title is more illustrative of the core issues discussed than the actual title given to this important book, which focuses on the less-than-adequate flexibility that Rubin discerns within the IDF’s strategic planning processes. This is enlightening because Rubin, a former senior figure at the...
Reading between the Lines
Strategic Assessment - Book Reviews, Volume 23, No. 4, October 2020
Colonel (ret.) Dr. Douglas Macgregor is one of the most prominent voices that for years have been calling for radical change in the United States armed forces in general, and in the ground forces in particular. Macgregor dedicated his intellectual life to the paradigmatic crisis that has beset the US military and how to overcome it, disseminating his doctrine in this book, which was first published in English in 2003 and translated into Hebrew four years later. IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi’s directive to his officers from...
Volume 3
No. 1 | May 2019
European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research
David Siman-Tov,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
Attempts by countries to influence other countries constitute a security challenge and a threat to democracy. European countries have identified this challenge as a threat to national security and are dealing with it through government actions, civilian activity, and cooperation between countries, reflecting different approaches and proposed solutions to the problem. This article seeks to examine the various methods that the major European countries are using to cope with this challenge and to assess the differences between them by...
The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
In recent years, foreign countries has increased their attempts to influence democratic processes in rival countries. The aim is to damage the electoral process via cyberattacks on computerized systems or to try and affect the outcomes. Examining the electoral process in Israel makes it possible to identify such attempts and propose ways of dealing with them. This article suggests the need to distinguish between foreign attempts to influence the elections and domestic ones, which are part of the democratic process, and outlines...
The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
The fate of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty originally signed in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union now appears uncertain, since the United States has announced its intentions to withdraw from the agreement and Russia has stated it is prepared to respond accordingly. The significance of the withdrawal from the INF Treaty affects not only the immediate force sizes and structures but also the dynamics of nuclear deterrence in Europe and more broadly. Nowadays and in the future, the assessment of nuclear...
Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
The Iranian government continues to develop and field an increasingly sophisticated range of cyber capabilities to support their strategic interests and to enable a variety of computer-based financial crime. These capabilities have directly and adversely impacted Israel, which has been the target of major cyberattacks either affiliated or directly orchestrated by the political leadership in Tehran. To assess this strategic threat, this article outlines the evolving objectives and characteristics of Iran’s cyber activity targeting...
Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons?
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
The many cases of the leakage of classified materials belonging to intelligence and defense agencies have led to claims that contract workers are the reason for these incidents, due to either their lack of loyalty or negligence. In addition, these leaks of classified information, including hacking programs and components, have raised the question of whether this internal threat is also the cause of the increased proliferation of sophisticated cyber weapons among players who do not have the ability to develop them. A prominent case...
The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West
Kobi Michael,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
“Academization of intelligence” is defined as the academic research, conceptualization, and teaching about the world of intelligence. Its goal is to study the field of intelligence’s essence, activities, and influence on the national security of the state and its decision-making processes. Policymakers and political leaders have recognized the increasingly significant role of intelligence in shaping policy and decision-making processes. These developments and concerns accelerated the academization of intelligence and gave the field...
Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
This article examines the conduct of Israel’s military leadership prior to the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War from the perspective of risk management and by looking at recently disclosed documents. From an analysis of the events, it appears that the chief of staff, David Elazar, had a clear risk management approach. On October 5, 1973, a day before the war, he put the regular army on high alert and reinforced the front lines. He did this despite the assessment of the head of Military Intelligence that the likelihood of war was...
National Cyber Security in Israel
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 1, May 2019
No. 2 | October 2019
The Space Arms Race: Global Trends and State Interests
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 2, October 2019
Today space is an arena with a significant impact on the security, military, economy, and daily routines of many countries around the world and has attracted many stakeholders. As a result, global interest in the development of weapons for use in space—a process known as the “space arms race”—has increased. The purpose of this article is to present the current approaches to the weaponization of space and the activities of the primary and secondary states in this arena, and to propose a new categorization based on their technological...
Sectoral Ability to Manage Cyber Risks in the Supply Chain
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 2, October 2019
This article presents the cyber risks that originate in the supply chain and the challenges that they pose. It examines a number of global methodologies and standards for managing cyber risks in the supply chain and proposes a model for concentrated sectoral management of the challenge so that the process of checking and authorizing suppliers will be streamlined. The proposed model has been found to be feasible in terms of the investment and pooling of resources as well as in increasing the general security level of the various...
Technology and Intelligence: Changing Trends in the IDF’s Intelligence Process in the Post-Information Revolution Period
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 2, October 2019
This article addresses the changes that have occurred in the intelligence work of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the period following the information revolution of the 1990s, and examines how technological developments during this period have improved the intelligence process and how they have affected intelligence surprises. The article describes the effect of technological developments on each stage of the classic “intelligence cycle”—collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination. It also provides a comparative analysis...
Cyber Influence Campaigns in the Dark Web
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 2, October 2019
In recent years there has been a significant rise in the scope and intensity of information wars between the great powers and other forces in the international arena, and influence campaigns have become a legitimate tool in the hands of politicians, propagandists, and global powers. In this context, the professional literature has focused most on campaigns on social networks while it has almost ignored similar campaigns in the Dark Web where the current research tends to focus on criminal activity. The Dark Web was developed by the...
Social Change Through Computerized Accessibility of Legal Rules
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 2, October 2019
This article presents a self-help software system that makes rights accessible through an on-line interview. The interview is based on a formal model of the relevant jurisprudence and does not require the involvement of a service representative, only a user who wants to understand his or her rights. In addition, the article provides a methodology for building models and interviews for similar social contexts and describes building a model for workers’ rights according to Israeli law, upon completing their employment. In addition to...
The Use of Biometric Technologies—Normative and Legal Aspects
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 3, No. 2, October 2019
The development of technology that can identify a variety of physical and emotional characteristics and specifically biometric technologies have reached a level of maturity and prevalence that they require an explicit legal and normative examination of all aspects of their use. The unbridled rush to develop these technologies in Israel and abroad has neglected to address the legal and ethical aspects. This article examines the development of biometric technologies and the ethical and legal aspects of their use. Israel has great...
Volume 22
No. 1, April 2019
The Role of the Court in Reaching Judicial Decisions that Concern the State of Israel’s National Security
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
Since its establishment, the State of Israel has committed itself to the principles of the rule of law and the protection of human rights, both in times of combat and in times of calm. Israel’s battle against threats to its national security must be waged within the framework of the law, and in accordance with the legal norms practiced among the family of democratic nations. One of the supervisory and control mechanisms to ensure that these legal norms are indeed followed is judicial review conducted by the Israeli Supreme Court in...
Iran’s Missile System: The Principal Means of Deterrence
Ephraim Kam
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
Iran has built up the largest arsenal of missiles in the Middle East. The majority are located in Iran, while the remainder are among Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and most of all in Lebanon, under Hezbollah. For Iran, this missile arsenal is currently its most important means of deterring its enemies and defending itself, and thus Tehran has adamantly and successfully refused to discuss the imposition of restrictions on its missile program. In recent years, Iran has worked to improve the quality of its missiles and rockets...
Bashar al-Assad and Israel: Back to the Past?
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
The coming end to the civil war in Syria and the victory for Bashar al-Assad raises the question of which Syrian president Israel will now face. The likely answer is that it will be the “old, familiar” Bashar, a ruler who sticks to the status quo, to what is tried and true, including – and perhaps especially – with respect to his approach toward Israel. This seemingly returns Israel to the point it was at with respect to Bashar before the outbreak of the war in Syria in the spring of 2011. Israel remains positioned against a defiant...
Achievements According to the BDS Movement: Trends and Implications
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
Between July 2017 and December 2018, the BDS movement published four lists presenting what it casts as significant achievements by the movement during that period. This article analyzes the insights and the trends emerging from these lists with reference to the BDS campaign in particular, and the delegitimization of Israel in general. The article determines that the direct impact of many of the apparent achievements was limited, although some earned significant exposure and caused real damage. The main challenge posed by the BDS...
A Decade of Close Greece-Israel Relations: An Assessment
Gallia Lindenstrauss,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
This article explores what lies behind the significant improvement in relations between Greece and Israel over the past decade. Greece and Israel have managed to move their relations forward in ways that would have been difficult to envision in the past, given Athens’s strong pro-Palestinian stance and the close Israel-Turkey relationship in the 1990s. The article points to the energy-related, security-based, and economic motivations on both sides to move ahead with closer relations, and shows how these drives were strong enough to...
Bringing China to Punish Nuclear Proliferators
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
Along with its rapid rise in global stature, China has become a key actor in the global nonproliferation regime. Striving to present an image of a responsible superpower, Beijing has largely sought to keep rogue states from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. However, when it comes to denuclearizing regimes that have already reached nuclear capacity, China has proved to be a relatively unreliable enforcer of the international sanctions regime. How does China provide hedging space for Iran and North Korea, and which key factors...
Afghanistan: A New American Strategy?
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
Seventeen years into the war in Afghanistan, the Trump administration has an opportunity to fashion a delicate balance between isolationism, the imperative to keep America safe from terror groups, the need to find a way out of the Afghan theater, and the obligation to give sovereignty to the Afghan people. President Trump’s lenient approach has allowed the military to respond to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which the Taliban have used to take more territory and intensify their terror activity to a level not seen since...
Global Trends, Local Challenges, and What Lies Between
, , Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, No. 1, April 2019
A methodology focusing on global trends may help to identify early signs of challenges to Israel’s national security in the broad sense of the term, be these challenges direct or indirect. This article illustrates the methodology using four general trends that have possible implications for the world order, affecting either Israel itself or its strategic arena. The article proposes improving and incorporating the global trends methodology in the decision making process in Israel as an analytical component of situation reviews and...
No. 2, July 2019
Note from the Editor
Mark A. Heller
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
This issue is my 28th, and last, as editor of Strategic Assessment. Since October 2012, it has been my mission to coordinate the editorial team responsible for a significant part of the in-depth policy-oriented research produced by the Institute for National Security Studies. After this issue, the responsibility for the journal passes to Kobi Michael and Omer Einav, and I wish them every success.
Over the past seven years as editor of this publication, I have had two major objectives in mind. The first has been to ensure that the...
Legislative Initiatives to Change the Judicial System are Unnecessary
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
Numerous initiatives aimed at weakening the judicial system in Israel have become increasingly prominent on the public agenda. These include concrete initiatives to deny/circumvent the authority of the Supreme Court to disqualify Knesset legislation. This article argues that such initiatives are unnecessary, given the constitutional dialogue between the Supreme Court and the Knesset already in place. In the decisive majority of cases, the Court permits a political response to its rulings, and for this reason occasionally even avoids...
The Arab public’s disappointment with the Joint List and the dissolution of the List on the eve of the 21st Knesset elections in April 2019, as well as the campaign waged by opposition factions urging voters to boycott the elections, resulted in low voter turnout and a drop in Arab parliamentary representation, from 13 to 10 seats (Hadash-Ta’al with six seats and Ra’am-Balad with four). After the Knesset was dissolved, these parties decided to make an effort to revive the Joint List and gain the public’s trust in advance of the 22nd...
The Delegitimization of Peace Advocates in Israeli Society
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
Delegitimization of groups and individuals who are part of Israel’s peace camp takes place on a daily basis. Those who are delegitimized are civil society and human rights organizations, politicians, public figures, or individuals who support an agreed-upon, long term political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The discourse on peace in Israeli society seems to have reached a stalemate, where the hope for change and for an Israeli-Palestinian co-existence initiative no longer has any place on the public agenda. Israel’s...
Hamas and Technology: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
Scientific and technological advances have made various applications affordable, available, and easy to operate – including in the security realm. The article examines this development as it relates to the modus operandi of Hamas and its threat to Israel. The essay provides an overview of the events of mid 2018 to mid 2019 along the Gaza Strip border, from the beginning of the Marches of Return to the middle-to-high intensity fighting, and questions Hamas’s limited use of advanced, off-the-shelf products despite their...
Civilian Control of the Military with regard to Value-Based Issues in a World of Hybrid Conflicts
Kobi Michael,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
Hybrid conflicts bring with them many varied situations in which the need to neutralize threats and ensure security on the one hand clashes with the need for restraint and moderation in the use of military force to achieve these goals on the other hand. In the many instances in which the IDF has had to operate under such tension and maintain its values in force application, it has often found itself at the center of social and political division, and without the backing of the political echelon. The question of civilian control of...
Polarization in the European Union and the Implications for Israel: The Case of the Netherlands
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
Results of the European Union parliamentary elections of May 2019 show that European voters are moving away from the center toward the far right and left. This essay uses the case of the Netherlands to illustrate how political polarization influences the position on Israel in both EU discourse and EU politics. While left wing parties are progressively more critical of Israel, the far right has arguably never been closer. Navigating this shifting political landscape across the EU poses several strategic and moral challenges for...
Saudi-Pakistan Relations: More than Meets the Eye
Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
A special relationship has developed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, centered on a particular trade-off. Saudi Arabia depends on Pakistan for strategic depth and regards it as both an important asset in restraining Iranian influence and an answer to its need for a non-Arab ally. In exchange, Pakistan receives extensive economic aid, and benefits from Saudi Arabia’s influence in the Gulf and its role as guardian of the Islamic holy sites. The two countries have been able to overcome several disputes between them by maneuvering...
Israel-East Africa Relations
Strategic Assessment, Volume 22, no. 2, July 2019
Diplomatic developments over the last decade point to the strengthening of Israel’s foreign relations in sub-Saharan Africa. This article focuses on the ties between Israel and East Africa and argues that Israel’s goal in strengthening relations is to improve its international standing and obtain political support in the UN arena. An examination of the voting patterns of four East African countries in the General Assembly in the years 2015-2018 shows that there is indeed political benefit, albeit limited, in strengthening...
Volume 2
No. 1 | May 2018
When Less is More: Cognition and the Outcome of Cyber Coercion
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
The rise of offensive interstate cyber interactions continues to fan interest in the coercive potential of cyber operations. Advocates of this revolutionary view insist that it signifies a shift in the balance of interstate relations; yet empirical evidence from past cases challenges these beliefs as actions often result in continued resistance rather than compliance. Regardless of its performance, the coercive potential of cyber operations cannot be readily dismissed. Consequently, the paper advances that the outcome of coercive...
Developing Organizational Capabilities to Manage Cyber Crises
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
The increasing number and complexity of cybersecurity incidents have led many organizations to develop procedures and capabilities to manage them. These include real-time response capabilities, technological capabilities, and the formation of teams charged with maintaining organizational information systems. These efforts are liable to be insufficient, however, because they sometimes fail to consider managerial aspects and the skills and tools required of the technological teams to manage crises while trying to confront a cyber...
Turkey—Challenges to the Struggle against Cyber Threats
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
Turkey is one of the most technologically, economically, and institutionally developed countries in the Middle East. At the same time, it is one of the countries most exposed to cyber threats. The Turkish government has taken steps in recent years to narrow the existing gaps in defense against cyber threats, but its efforts in this area have not yet produced the desired results. This article analyzes Turkey’s national cyber defense deployment and cites a number of structural challenges resulting from long-standing Turkish policy. The...
Germany’s Cyber Strategy—Government and Military Preparations for Facing Cyber Threats
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
Germany is a leading member of the European Union and one of the world’s strongest economies. Consequently, it is a central target for cyberattacks from states, terror organizations, and criminal groups. Dealing with the threat to German democracy posed by campaigns to disseminate false information—plus the cyber threat posed by Russia—has led to changes in the German security concept, causing the German government to seek to increase its cyber independence and to establish offensive capabilities in this space. Understanding how...
The Cybersphere Obligates and Facilitates a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs
David Siman-Tov,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
History is replete with examples of world powers, countries, and militaries that failed to identify the revolutionary potential of a new technology and, as a result, lost their advantage and relevance. This article addresses the gap between the essential technological changes that the cybersphere has created and facilitates and the outmoded functioning of intelligence organizations, which have remained rooted in the approaches, architecture, and tenets of the intelligence cycle paradigm that emerged between the two world wars. This...
Developing a Doctrine for Cyberwarfare in the Conventional Campaign
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
The cyber realm is in the midst of evolving into another branch of state warfare, similar to ground, naval, air, and space warfare. As such, it is bound to give rise to a concise and mature operational doctrine that will adopt general military patterns and rationales and will be synergistically integrated with other lines of operation in the conventional campaign. Although several cyber superpowers have already developed suitable doctrines and capabilities, most of the world’s states are still focused on cybersecurity rather than on...
Cyber Intelligence: In Pursuit of a Better Understanding for an Emerging Practice
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 1, May 2018
Similar to other cyber-related notions, there is not any crystallized definition of “cyber intelligence,” nor are there enough studies focusing on how it is crafted. In light of the above, the present paper draws a clearer picture of this emerging practice by taking stock of the existing analytical work on the topic. The paper reviews the available scientific literature addressing cyber intelligence, discusses the notion of cyber INT, and examines how this intelligence is crafted through the lens of the (cyber) “intelligence cycle.”...
No. 2 | September 2018
The Cognitive Campaign: The Second Lebanon War as a Case Study
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, September 2018
The aim of this article is to examine the way that leaders try to shape their society’s cognitive perceptions during war, with the assumption that society will not agree to unconditionally support a protracted war involving high casualties. Recognizing the necessity of large-scale public support of war, decision makers manipulate local public opinion so that it will justify the war and recognize the importance of the war’s objectives and the ostensible achievements that war could provide. This article demonstrates how this was...
Guidelines for the Management of Cyber Risks
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, September 2018
Cyber risk management is crucial to improving the level of organizational defense and preparedness for cyber events. This process is an important component in an organization’s operational risk management and in its overall risk management. Organizations in several sectors within Israeli society are obligated to a process of managing cyber risks in accordance with the instructions of the regulator. The aim of this article is to examine the method of risk management, to propose guidelines for the management of cyber risks, and...
Securing Critical Supply Chains: Strategic Opportunities for the Cyber Product International Certification (CPICTm) Initiative
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, September 2018
China, Russia, and other potential adversaries are increasing their efforts to corrupt the supply chains upon which the electric grid and other infrastructure sectors depend. Valuable initiatives are underway to strengthen supply chain risk management (SCRM). Yet, despite these measures, the US intelligence community warns that the growing scale and sophistication of attacks on the supply chain “are placing entire segments of our government and economy at risk.” Similar challenges confront Israel, the United Kingdom, and other US...
Nuclear Crisis Management and Deterrence: Stalked by Cyberwar?
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, September 2018
Cyberwar, preceding or during nuclear crises, can marginally or even fatally Strain the requirements of nuclear deterrence stability and is capable of disrupting the communications between governments in times of crisis or confusing their assessments of ongoing events. This discussion considers the requirements for successful nuclear crisis management, the possible vulnerabilities induced by cyberwar, and the scenarios in which opportunistic failure is possible.
Broad Economic Warfare in the Cyber Era
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, September 2018
Broad economic warfare encompasses a host of actions aimed at damaging or threatening to damage the economy of an enemy or rival, with the aim of pressuring or weakening it in order to achieve strategic aims. Broad economic warfare encompasses standard economic warfare (such as sanctions), kinetic warfare, and cyber warfare against an enemy’s economy.
The cyber era has changed the realm of broad economic warfare. From an offensive perspective, cyber capabilities make it possible to damage the enemy economy both during wartime and...
How a Comparative View and Mutual Study of National Strategic Intelligence and Competitive Intelligence Can Benefit Each Other
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, September 2018
National strategic intelligence and competitive intelligence seem to be two different disciplines. Research has focused on the two fields—national strategic intelligence and competitive intelligence—separately, without any attempt to apply lessons and relevant explanations from one field to the other. Looking deeply into these two fields reveals, however, that they have a lot in common. As the methodology of intelligence in both governments and in business has hit a glass ceiling, based on the gaps between expectation to execution in...
No. 3 | December 2018
Identity Theft and Exposure to Harmful Content- Internet Risks for Teenagers
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
Children and teenagers are part of a weak and vulnerable population group. Their internet activity exposes them to two substantial risks: exposure to harmful content and identity theft and its use for slander and bullying. This article examines the characteristics and scope of the problem. It proposes ways of minimizing the damage that these risks pose to children and teenagers, while dealing with the existing privacy restrictions.
Ubiquitous Presence: Protecting Privacy and Forbidding Intrusion into a Person’s Records in Jewish Law
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
The development of internet use raises serious questions about a person’s right to privacy and the duty of companies to safeguard the confidentiality of information they possess. In practice, too many events have occurred in which confidential information leaks out of the companies responsible for safeguarding it; such information is sometimes even sold to criminals. In the face of these abuses, the western legal system and regulatory agencies have been forced to deal extensively with this seemingly new issue in recent years. Yet, we...
Cyberspace: The Next Arena for the Saudi-Iranian Conflict?
, Yoel Guzansky
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
The combination of structural vagueness embodied in large cyber operations and their potential to cause real damage makes cyberspace the ideal field of action for Saudi Arabia and Iran and matches their strategic outlook and their concept of the use of force. The risk and the opportunity that cyberspace offers to each of these countries make it tempting, particularly when it concerns the long-term investment of resources. Cyberspace can therefore be expected to become another central arena of conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran,...
Jihadi Johns: Virtual Democracy and Countering Violent Extremism Propaganda
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
A growing body of literature documents how Islamic extremist groups utilize technology to recruit potential new extremists. This back-end analysis is not matched, however, by the equally important frontend part of the process: How and why do these virtual propaganda/recruiting tools work on populations living in Western societies? Why are people susceptible to extremism while living in stable, free democracies? This paper fuses elements of cognitive psychology) specifically Siboni’s concept of the “first cognitive war”) and virtual...
The European Union’s Foreign Policy Toolbox in International Cyber Diplomacy
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
In September 2017, the European Union (EU) updated its 2013 Cyber Security Strategy. The new version is intended to improve the protection of Europe’s critical infrastructure and boost the EU’s digital self-assertiveness toward other regions of the world. To prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control in cyberspace, the EU agreed on a so-called Cyber Diplomacy Toolbox in October 2017, which sets out possible countermeasures in case of an external cyberattack and raises the costs for perpetrators. The framework encompasses the...
Global Changes in the Proliferation of Armed UAVs: Risks, Challenges, and Opportunities Facing Israel
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
For a number of decades, Israel has been among the leaders in the manufacture, export, and operation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This position has given Israel a security advantage and has affected its relations with various countries. In recent years, significant changes have occurred in this sphere, as new manufacturers and exporters, such as China, Iran, and Russia, have appeared, while the United States has changed its export policy. Growing use is being made of civilian technologies and tools, such as drones converted to...
Operations in Cyberspace from the Perspective of International Law
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
International law is applicable to cyberspace. There is international consensus that the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force, applies to cyberspace. There is, nonetheless, some disagreement on what would constitute an armed attack in cyberspace, and consequently, what response would be permitted. Actions that do not amount to attack may still be prohibited by international law, for example if they constitute interference in the domestic affairs of states.
Cyberspace and the Israel Defense Forces
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 2, No. 2, December 2018
Over the past decade, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has made the greatest strides in the field of cyberspace. During this period, cyberspace became a pertinent issue and in the IDF it became an extensive field of activity of developing and applying knowledge. The IDF perceives cyberspace and cyber regulation as significant for several reasons: First, they relate to the public discourse on knowledge development and the regulation of relations between the state and the economic system on the issue of national cyberspace and its...
Volume 21
No. 1, April 2018
The Development of Security-Military Thinking in the IDF
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
Although Israel has benefited from nearly absolute physical military superiority in recent decades, it appears, paradoxically, that its achievements against its enemies are diminishing. Theoreticians have explained this as “predestined,” deriving from the nature of new confrontations. This article will present an alternative approach, arguing that the phenomenon derives mainly from a weakening of military thinking in the IDF. It maintains that strengthening military thinking is critical for the development of an innovative doctrine,...
The Day after the Islamic State: The Problem of Power Vacuums
, Udi Dekel
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
The essay considers the territory in Syria that was liberated from the control of the Islamic State. Reclaimed territory in this war-torn state has been characterized by power vacuums that are often filled by pro-Assad groups, including Iranian proxy forces that severely repress local Sunnis. Subsequently, increased Iranian influence has fed resentment and legitimized Salafi jihadist forces in the eyes of many Syrian Sunnis. The essay advocates the counteracting of this trend by imbuing power vacuums with stability through local...
The Struggle over the Future of Iraq: Looking to the Parliamentary Elections and Beyond
Eldad Shavit
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
The defeat of the Islamic State and the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections in May 2018 place Iraq at a crossroads for the first time in years. At the heart of this junction is an attempt to overcome a host of challenges in order to prevent yet another downward spiral into instability and a strengthening of radical Islam. The Shiite camp is expected to maintain its strength in the parliament, and the Shiite militias, most of which are affiliated with Iran, will attempt to translate their success in the struggle against the Islamic...
The Competition between Middle East Powers: Expeditionary Bases and Non-State Proxies
, Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
Competition between the Middle East regional powers is often conducted indirectly or in the territories of third countries. The need to intervene in third party and often distant theaters, and to project force on non-bordering regional competitors – which was not the focus of the regional powers’ traditional force buildup – has received more attention in recent years, and focuses, inter alia, on establishing military bases in territories of third countries and on expanding the use of non-state proxies. These trends...
European Interest in Egyptian Stability: The Case of Italy
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
This paper analyzes the evolution of Italian-Egyptian relations after the murder of Giulio Regeni and the reasons behind the relatively quick resolution of the crisis. The Regeni case illustrates how most European countries see Egyptian stability as vital, to the extent that they are willing to pay for it in terms of leverage and credibility. However, while Europeans may turn a blind eye to Egyptian government repression, and this repression may well curb the flow of migrants to Europe, it could also become a greater driver of chaos...
Establishing a European Security Community: Milestones and Strategic Implications
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
In December 2017, 25 defense ministers from European Union countries concluded an agreement on a program for permanent structured cooperation in the European security community (PESCO). This formative decision comes against the backdrop of a series of security developments that prompted European leaders to take steps to establish a pan-European security community based on cooperation on numerous security issues, such as: supervision of international waters, cooperation between intelligence services, and development of cyber...
To What Extent Is the European Union United? Emerging Tensions between Eastern and Western Europe
Adi Kantor,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
The desire to establish a united European collective is currently tested by weighty issues challenging the unity of the European Union and the ability of its leaders to shepherd it toward a secure future. A central issue, especially following the immigration crisis of 2015, is the destabilization of relations between East and West European nations. This essay examines how tensions between East European nations (the Visegrád Group) and the EU’s Western members are manifested, considers if the tensions in fact undermine EU stability,...
Beyond Beer Sheva: Assessing Australia-Israel Relations
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 1, April 2018
While the documented history of the relationship between Israel and Australia suggests close ties dating back to the establishment of the State of Israel, in reality, these relations have far from reached their potential. Considering the extensive joint national interests and respective expertise in agriculture, innovation, defense, and cyber security, there is room for strengthened relations between the two. Yet due to lackluster diplomacy and volatile party politics, what could be a flourishing partnership remains as a sidelined...
No. 2, July 2018
Israel and the Pragmatic Sunni Camp: A Historic Opportunity
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
In recent years the scope of common interests shared by Israel and the Sunni Arab camp has expanded significantly. A number of successful cooperative efforts undertaken against this background have restored the vision of normalization with the Arab world to the headlines in Israel, and have sparked public debate regarding the feasibility of this prospect. This article surveys the opportunity currently facing Israel and the pragmatic Arab states, and examines it in the broader historical context of the Arab-Israeli conflict as well as...
The Response to the Iranian Proxy War: Jerusalem’s Power vs. the Quds Force
Assaf Orion
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
This article takes a systemic look at Iran’s proxy war as a component of its strategic threat to Israel. It examines how Israel has met the challenge, considers the gaps in its approach, describes the development of its concept during the confrontation in Syria since the end of 2017, and proposes a strategic framework and guiding principles for the ongoing campaign against Iran. It focuses on a holistic view of Iran’s threats – nuclear and conventional; the need for an integrative and comprehensive Israeli policy against them; new...
Restoring Economic Sanctions: The Impact on Iran
, Raz Zimmt
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
The announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding the United States’ withdrawal from the nuclear agreement prompted a host of predictions regarding the anticipated effects of the renewal of American sanctions on Iran. Various attempts to examine the effectiveness of the sanctions have tended to relate to the anticipated impact on the Iranian economy and on the policy of the regime in the same breath, particularly regarding the nuclear issue. However, these are two separate phenomena. Analysis reveals that the US economic...
The Role of the IAEA in the Iran Nuclear Deal: Recommendations for Improving Performance
Ephraim Asculai,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the organization entrusted with verifying that Iran is observing the requirements of the nuclear deal (JCPOA) to the letter. Its quarterly reports to the Security Council are, at present, the basis for the determination by many nations that Iran is complying with the deal. However, a closer look at the performance of the IAEA and the issued reports reveals that not all is well in areas such as verification of the absence of activities in the development of the nuclear explosive...
Why Has Bashar Won the War in Syria?
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
The war in Syria is nearly over. While the restoration of stability and peacemaking in the country remain remote – if at all viable – objectives, the fighting on the battlefield has been decided and Bashar al-Assad has ended with the upper hand. This victory was handed to Bashar thanks to the recruitment of Tehran and Moscow to fight alongside him, coupled with the inertia to the point of inaction demonstrated by the West, primarily the United States, regarding the crisis in Syria. At the same time, this victory is also...
Saudi Arabia: Walking the Nuclear Path
Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
In response to the development of the Iranian nuclear program and considerations of prestige and energy needs, Saudi Arabia began examining the nuclear route, with the intention of leaving as many options as possible open to it in the nuclear realm. The Saudi kingdom has already declared its intention to develop a nuclear program for the purposes of electricity production and water desalination, and is in the midst of feverish preparations to achieve this goal. In this context, it has been conducting negotiations with the United...
Egyptian Soccer in the el-Sisi era: A Political Double-Edged Sword
Ofir Winter,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
Soccer is the most popular sport in Egypt and draws tens of millions of fans. Over the years the various Egyptian regimes have understood the game’s enormous attraction, and tried to exploit it for their political needs. This article analyzes the dual attitude of the regime of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to the historic participation of the Egyptian national team in the World Cup in Russia, and the emergence of its forward Mohamed Salah as a global soccer superstar. On the one hand, the unprecedented interest aroused in Egypt by...
Decisions from China’s National People's Congress: Significance for Israel
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
At the National People’s Congress of March 2018, far reaching structural changes were made in China’s governmental institutions. This essay reviews the political declarations and structural changes approved at the Congress, and analyzes their political significance for Israel. China’s economic objectives create new horizons for Israel regarding commercial cooperation with China on the one hand, yet pose possible risks if China becomes a future competitor. From a defense perspective, the upgrading of China’s...
It’s All about the Numbers: Involving Rating Agencies in the Fight against Terrorism
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
The banking industry has long decried overregulation, and in particular, its ineffectiveness. To a degree, the banks have been right, as shown most significantly by the increase in terrorist financing through traditional banking channels, despite regulations and lawsuits attempting to stop it. However, there are alternatives to lawsuits and regulations to force banks into compliance. The most potentially effective alternative mandates that rating agencies lower a bank’s rating for financing terrorism. This can work because rating...
Loss of Precious Faith: The Deep Rift between the State of Israel and American Jewry
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 2, July 2018
While heralding the flourishing political relations between the United States and Israel, American media channels over the last six months have also reported that recent measures taken by the Israeli government, such as the passage of the National Conversion Law and the freeze on the pluralistic Western Wall plan, have significantly exacerbated the crisis of faith in the State of Israel among extensive segments of the American Jewish population. It was further reported that this old-new crisis, which is reflected in unprecedented...
No. 3, October 2018
Despite claiming full and eternal sovereignty over a united Jerusalem, Israel over the past five decades has consistently neglected the eastern portion of the city, and consequently the socioeconomic reality there has become both an economic burden and a security risk to the state. In May 2018, the government decided to approve a comprehensive aid package for East Jerusalem aimed at reducing gaps between this population and other sectors, and integrating the city’s Palestinian residents into Israeli society and the Israeli economy....
Expanding PA Authority and Institutions as an Outline for a Political Process: Israeli and Palestinian Perspectives
Yaron Schneider
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
This essay presents an alternative to political negotiations over a permanent status agreement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and argues that this alternative can improve cooperation between the parties and maintain the viability of a two-state solution. Analyzing regional processes, ideas, and Israeli and Palestinian stances, the essay drafts the outline of a political plan based on unilateral moves to shift civilian authority in Area C to the Palestinian Authority, and limited, issue-specific agreements designed to enhance...
The Hamas Tightrope: Between Political Institutionalization and Armed Struggle
Kobi Michael,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
Hamas, which was established as a social-religious movement, has evolved from a terror organization and violent non-state actor into a semi-state actor in control of the Gaza Strip and its population, endowed with the political and national responsibility of a national actor. This development has handed Hamas the obligation to maneuver between realizing its identity as an ideological resistance movement and implementing its responsibilities as a governing entity. In particular, it must balance elements that encourage violence against...
Social Media and Peacebuilding: Could Mindsets be Positively Affected?
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
Social media has grown rapidly over the last two decades, becoming a ubiquitous force in all spheres of society. The speed of development has created a lag regarding effective use and regulation of social media platforms, and misuse has shaken the concept of social media as a great unifier and positive force. This article examines the role social media can play in the Middle East peace process through an assessment of social media peace campaigns in Israel and the Palestinian territories and an analysis of social media campaign...
The Syrian Refugees: A Political and Economic Challenge to Jordan
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
The waves of immigration to Jordan since 1948 have not changed the country’s official name or identity, “the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.” According to the constitution, the King of Jordan has broad governing authority, and the Hashemites – the Bedouin tribes that emigrated from the Arabian Peninsula – retain seniority in government institutions, even though since the mid-20th century they have not represented the majority of the population. The most recent wave of immigration, which began in 2011 following the so-called Arab Spring,...
Will the Military Option on Iran Return to the Table?
Ephraim Kam
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
Military action against Iranian nuclear installations was always a problematic, risky scenario opposed by virtually all world governments. Only the United States and Israel have considered it, and they too are in no hurry to implement it. In any case, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) approved in 2015 put another brake on the idea. However, the change in approach embodied by the Trump administration and the Iran-Israel friction on the Syrian front are variables that could change this situation, especially given the US...
The International Process to Limit Autonomous Weapon Systems: Significance for Israel
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
Autonomous weapon systems that can apply lethal force without human intervention in the operating loop are increasingly widespread. The debate around the legality and morality of using such systems has intensified, and in recent years countries that have signed the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) have also discussed the possibility of adding a protocol to limit the use and perhaps even the development of such systems. This article reviews the process in the international arena, presents the positions of some of the...
The Growth of Economic Relations between China and the European Union
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 3, November 2018
Over the last decade, China and the EU have strengthened their economic ties. At the same time, the EU is unhappy about some aspects of the trade with China, in particular, issues relating to fair competition, intellectual property, and market access. Furthermore, the EU is troubled by China’s political influence over Europe, due to the Chinese government’s control over European critical infrastructures. Consequently, the EU is currently setting up a mechanism to screen foreign investments, and some EU nations have already passed...
No. 4, January 2019
The Return of “One State”: How “One State for Two Peoples” is Taking Root in the Palestinian Arena
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
The concept of “one state” has existed in Palestinian thought alongside the “two-state vision” since the first days of the conflict with the Zionist movement. When the Palestinian Authority was established, the idea of one state was pushed aside, although it had been rooted in the Palestinian establishment for many decades (mainly in the “Palestinian democratic state” objective). However, in view of the multi-faceted crises besetting the Palestinian system in recent years, and at their heart an understanding of the difficulty of...
The Internal Palestinian Split: Thinking Differently about the Conflict with Israel
Yohanan Tzoreff
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
The years 1987-2000, from the start of the first intifada to just before the second intifada, were the formative period that shaped the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as we know it today – a dispute over borders rather than an existential conflict, with a significant religious but not necessarily hegemonic dimension. An analysis of relations between Fatah and Hamas during those years reveals a struggle that challenged Hamas and sometimes even forced it to accept a status inferior to that of Fatah. An examination of their discourse and...
The Slim Prospects for a Complete Economic Recovery in Syria
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
The civil war in Syria that erupted in early 2011 has ravaged the country and changed its face entirely. Out of 24 million residents prior to the war, about six million fled to Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, while another three million have been displaced within Syria itself. Most international efforts focus on finding immediate solutions for the hardships of the refugees, while very few studies tackle the problems involved in launching a planned and funded comprehensive reconstruction process. Without such a reconstruction process,...
Diplomacy and the War in Syria: Individual Interests or Genuine Efforts to Rebuild the State?
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
Throughout the Syrian civil war, a number of regional and global actors have embarked on international initiatives that seek a political solution to the conflict. These initiatives differed significantly from each other in terms of their objectives, scope, and the identity of those leading them. This article describes and compares the most prominent international initiatives, assesses the effectiveness of each, and defines the enduring obstacles facing any diplomatic solution. Much has been written about the virtues of “soft power”...
France’s Role in Syrian Reconstruction, and the Implications for Israel
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
After almost eight years of brutal violence, the Syrian civil war is nearing a conclusion. The ultimate outcome of this conflict and the subsequent reconstruction of Syria are of utmost importance to Israel, which will need to rely on the actions of other parties in the arena with interests similar to its own. France is one such party. The French strategic interest in Syria spans decades, and since the outbreak of the civil war and the rise of the Islamic State, France has paid renewed attention to Syria. France now has now the...
Egypt’s Identity during the el-Sisi Era: Profile of the “New Egyptian”
Ofir Winter,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
From the beginning of his presidency – and particularly since his second term of office began in June 2018 – Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has promoted an official campaign to shape Egyptian national identity and create a “new Egyptian.” Various actors are part of the campaign, which has received much coverage in the established media and in conferences dedicated to the young generation. An analysis of the campaign reveals two main themes: first, the “new Egyptian” is conceptualized as an antithesis to “the Islamist other”;...
Control of the Global Technology Market: The Battle of the Superpowers
, Galia Lavi
Strategic Assessment, Volume 21, No. 4, January 2019
In early December 2018, Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei and the daughter of the company’s founder, was arrested in Canada at Vancouver Airport. The arrest was made at the request of the United States, for an alleged breach of American and European sanctions on Iran. While the Chinese government strongly condemned the arrest and demanded Meng’s release, the incident highlighted the broader struggle between the United States and China for control of the global technology market and the future international standards in this field. Israel,...
Volume 20
No. 1, April 2017
Support for Terrorism in Muslim Majority Countries and Implications for Immigration Policies in the West
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
The wave of elections in key European Union states in 2017 invites intensified debates concerning immigration and terrorism. This article discusses data from reliable recent opinion surveys that indicate that 8.3 percent of the inhabitants of the Muslim world hold sympathies of some degree for the Islamic State. A hypothetical electoral majority of 52 percent of the entire Arab world also agrees that “United States interference in the region justifies armed operations against the United States everywhere,” which connotes significant...
The Deradicalization of Islamists by Islamists: Hamas's Kid Glove Approach to Salafi Jihadists in the Gaza Strip, 2010-2014
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
The Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip first set out to crush the area’s Salafi jihadist groups by force. Once Hamas realized that the Salafi jihadi problem was more serious than it had first anticipated, however, Hamas’s approach shifted gradually, from a strategy of attempted elimination to one of containment and assimilation. Indeed, several of the pursued militants proved to be former colleagues from the Qassam Brigades who had grown disillusioned with Hamas and defected to fringe groups. This article examines how...
An Independent Iraqi Kurdistan? On the Prospects and Viability of a Future State
Gallia Lindenstrauss,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
Since the 1991 Gulf War, and even more so, following the Iraq War of 2003, the Kurds of Iraq have gained a growing level of autonomy and control of their region’s affairs. In context of the longstanding Kurdish aspiration for independence, this article focuses on whether the Kurds of Iraq are ripe to proceed to the next step and declare independence. The article will examine the achievements that the Iraqi Kurds have already made toward establishing a Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq and address the challenges that still...
The Trump Administration, the Middle East, and the Kurds
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
This article analyzes the US-Kurdish relationship in light of the election of Donald Trump, and examines the different variables that must be considered as President Trump formulates a policy toward the Middle East and the Kurds. The article argues that President Trump has two core interests in the Middle East: to eliminate the Islamic State and to contain Iran. Both these policies will impact on the Kurds, and to this end certain Kurdish and American interests align, particularly in the opposition to the Islamic State. However,...
Bill for Recognition of the Arab Minority as a National Minority
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
Since 2001, the Arab Knesset factions have proposed bills for recognition of the Arab minority as a national minority. The wording of the billls insists on the right of the Arabs to suitable representation in state institutions, the establishment of representative political institutions, cultural and educational autonomy, consolidation of the status of the Arabic language, and participation of the Arab minority in significant decision making related to its affairs. This essay assesses the background to the respective proposals, and...
The Syrian Economy: Current State and Future Scenarios
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
This article outlines the main features of the Syrian economy prior to the current civil war, and documents the principal economic developments in the course of the conflict. This serves as the background for an analysis of possible future scenarios for the Syrian economy, which will likely take decades to recover its (poor) pre-conflict status. The physical and human capital costs are such that hundreds of billions of dollars will likely be required to rebuild the economy. This means that under the best of circumstances Syria will...
The UN Security Council, Israel, and "the Situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question"
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
How do the most powerful actors in the UN Security Council perceive the Israeli-Palestinian issue and the resolution of the conflict, and what, if any, are the differences of opinion between them? Furthermore, which issues attract the most debate and fiercest criticism in Council discussions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? To address these two central questions, discourse analysis is performed on the protocols of UNSC meetings under the agenda item “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian...
The F-35 and Israel’s Security Concept
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 1, April 2017
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (“Adir,” in its Hebrew nomenclature) is the first fifth generation combat aircraft in the Middle East, and a cornerstone of the IDF procurement plan for the coming decade. This essay assesses the compatibility of the F-35 with the Israeli security concept early in the 21st century. Using parameters such as the security concept, IDF strategy, and characteristics of modern military systems, a comprehensive analysis of the aircraft’s strengths and weaknesses is presented. Despite frequent criticism of the...
No. 2, July 2017
Iranian Military Intervention in Syria: A New Approach
Ephraim Kam
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
Military intervention in Syria is an unprecedented development in Iran’s regional behavior and represents several changes. This is the first time that Iran has intervened militarily with significant force in another nation, which is all the more unexpected, as Syria and Iran share no border. The intervention in Syria is a new type of mandate for the Revolutionary Guards, whose ground troops – along with ground troops of the regular Iranian army – are involved in fighting another state. Until now, the Revolutionary Guards were charged...
The War in Syria: What Lies Ahead?
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
Six years into Syria’s bloody civil war, the conclusion of the war is still a long way off. Bashar al-Assad’s December 2016 conquest of Aleppo – the country’s second largest city – with Russian and Iranian support was a significant achievement in the campaign against his rivals. However, since the embers of protest and rebellion continue to burn in the country, the war may well continue for some time. Though not likely, not impossible are the collapse of the regime and the victory of the rebels due to Washington’s deepening military...
Russia’s Army in Syria: Testing a New Concept of Warfare
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
Syria constitutes the first battlefield in which the Russian Federation has, in a coordinated manner and on a large scale, deployed and activated a contingent of expeditionary forces, including career soldiers, special units assigned to special operations, military police, military advisors and technicians, and “volunteers.” Russia’s new involvement model, as applied and tested on the Syrian frontlines, may further boost Russia’s offensive and deterrent capabilities, both in its “near abroad” and...
China-Iran Relations following the Nuclear Agreement and the Lifted Sanctions: Partnership Inc.
Raz Zimmt, ,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
This article examines China-Iran relations following the nuclear agreement with Iran and the lifting of sanctions, from the perspectives of politics, economics, and security. To this end, it assesses a variety of Chinese interests in the Middle East on both an inter-power and regional level. In the economic realm, many challenges involved in developing the bilateral relationship remain, while in the military and defense realm, the improvement in relations has yet to mature into concrete cooperation or a signed arms deal. As for...
Political and Military Contours of the Next Conflict with Hezbollah
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
This article analyzes the political and military contours of a future conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and explores the tension that exists between two levels of analysis: the underlying fundamental political and military data, and the distinct context that is liable to result in escalation. The underlying political and military data reveal that the realistic strategic successes that both sides are likely to achieve in the conflict are limited, and that in an all-out confrontation, both sides will pay a heavy price. These are...
An Assault on Urban Areas: The Revised Reference Scenario for the Home Front in Israel
Meir Elran,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
The reference scenario for a future conflict against Hezbollah and/or Hamas approved by the Israeli government in June 2016 is bound to affect the home front. The main change to the reference scenario, the first of its type presented and approved as a basis for future preparations, is the far graver threat than that of previous conflicts, manifested primarily by the introduction of more precise high trajectory weapons. These enable adversaries to switch from the previous strategy of “harassment,” based mostly on statistical weapons,...
The Hamas Document of Principles: Can a Leopard Change Its Spots?
, , Ofir Winter
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
Hamas’s “Document of General Principles and Policies,” issued in May 2017, outlines the organization’s current ideology. The document intends to resolve tensions between Hamas’s traditional philosophy, as put forth in its 1988 Covenant of the Resistance Movement, and the array of practical challenges facing the organization that has ruled the Gaza Strip over the past decade. The document emphasizes the organization’s national orientation over its Islamic bent, and aims both to position Hamas as legitimate leadership in the...
From Supervision to Development: A New Concept in Planning Arab Localities
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
Residential planning and construction is one of the main strategic issues affecting the relations of the State of Israel with its Arab citizens, as well as relations between Arab and Jewish citizens. The common belief in the Arab sector is that the state uses spatial planning as a tool for restricting, controlling, and supervising spatial development in the Arab localities. A restrictive planning regulation has led to a shortage of available land to meet the growing demand for housing with buildings usually found in the Arab...
Back to the Czarist Era: Russia’s Aspirations, Buildup, and Military Activity in the Arctic Region
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 2, July 2017
Climate changes have transformed the Arctic region, rich in natural resources and minerals, into a magnet for different actors, and as a result, into an arena for their struggles. The most prominent state in this context is Russia, which since Putin’s rise to power has viewed the Arctic region as a Russian area of strategic influence and has formulated policy documents aimed at actualizing Russian aspirations in the region. To this end, over the past decade Russia has implemented a process of military buildup, including the upgrade,...
Israel is home to dozens of think tanks, all seeking to affect the way decisions are taken regarding social and political issues in their respective fields. The growing number of such institutes in Israel reflects a broader global phenomenon of increasing think tank influence. Although think tanks play a particularly central role in the United States, due to specific features of the American political system, their influence in other parts of the world is significant. In view of the many and complex security challenges faced by...
No. 3, October 2017
The Next Gaza: The Gaza Strip between a Dead End and a Glimmer of Hope
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
This article discusses the steadily declining situation in the Gaza Strip, not only in terms of poverty and unemployment, but in terms of society and mindset as well. At the core of this reality is the growing tension between the interests that drive the Hamas government and the hopes and disappointments of the Gazan population – mainly among the young generation. The article first focuses on the ever-growing tension between Hamas authorities in the Gaza Strip and the emerging new generation there, some tens of thousands of...
Egypt and Israel: Forty Years in the Desert of Cold Peace
, Ofir Winter
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
With the approaching fortieth anniversary of Anwar Sadat’s historic peace initiative, the foundations of peace that were laid during the Egyptian President’s visit to Jerusalem remain stable and strong. However, the peace is still “cold” and is a peace between governments, not peoples. This article analyzes the factors behind this configuration of relations between the two countries; the positive changes that have taken place among Egypt’s younger generation regarding their views of Israel since the revolution of January 25, 2011;...
Iran´s Land Bridge to the Mediterranean: Possible Routes and Ensuing Challenges
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
Reestablishment of Iran´s land bridge to the Assad regime and to its Hezbollah proxy represents a potential existential threat to Israel, and is a mounting source of concern for other regional actors and the US. While this is well known, less obvious is how Iran intends to achieve this strategic objective, or the long term factors and constraints likely to impede progress and pose obstacles. While Iran has several options regarding a possible ground route, each potential course presents particular challenges and risks at the...
Iran’s Shiite Foreign Legion
Ephraim Kam
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
Iran’s military intervention in Syria offers Tehran another tool to promote its influence and interests in the region: the Shiite militias organized by the Iranian Quds Force and Revolutionary Guards. The most important militias of this kind are the Lebanese Hezbollah, followed by a number of Iraqi Shiite militias that Iran either established or helped set up during the Iraq-Iran War and the more recent war in Iraq. The newer militias were constructed over the past few years, composed of Afghan and Pakistani Shiite volunteers. All...
Iran’s Middle Class: An Agent of Political Change?
Raz Zimmt
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
The political and social processes underway in Iran in recent decades, as well as the events of the so-called Arab Spring, have aroused growing interest in the expanding Iranian middle class and its potential for leading social protest and future political change. The central role played by the middle class in the 2009 disturbances and in the election of Hassan Rouhani to the presidency reflected the sector’s growing dissatisfaction with the socioeconomic and political situation. The relatively large middle class in Iran, its role in...
The Day after the Islamic State
Carmit Valensi
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
The territorial losses suffered by the self-proclaimed Islamic State over the past year, the fall of the stronghold Mosul, and the encirclement of the caliphate’s de facto capital al-Raqqa signal the imminent military defeat of the Islamic State. However, the ideological vacuum, frustration, and alienation typical of communities in the Middle East since the so-called Arab Spring, the absence of a political alternative, and the lack of other local effective governance raise the possibility that the Islamic State will survive its...
The Israeli Withdrawals from Southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip: A Comparative Analysis
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
The Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon in May 2000 and the Gaza Strip in August-September 2005 represented paradigm shifts in Israeli territorial policy. In Israeli political discourse, both withdrawals have been heavily criticized for lack of strategic planning that ultimately harmed the national interest by surrendering territory “unilaterally,” without negotiations with opposing forces. By contrast, this paper seeks to delineate contributing factors and the logic engendering both withdrawals: ultimately, neither was...
The Demographic Threat: Israelis Abandon the Negev and the Galilee
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
For many years the Israeli government adopted a strategic policy aimed at dispersing the local population among different parts of the country. Nonetheless, over the past three decades the preference of the Israeli population for living in the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area has grown, resulting in a gradual “abandonment” of the Negev and the Galilee. In order to deal with this problem, which poses strategic challenges to Israel on both the social-environmental and national levels, the government intends to encourage settlement in...
Alexander the Great Would Not Have Been Perplexed
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 3, October 2017
When US Secretary of Defense General James Mattis was the commander of the 1st Marine Division, he remarked that if Alexander the Great found himself on a modern battlefield, he “would not be in the least bit perplexed,” because in spite of the changes in the nature of warfare in modern times, the principles remain the same. In contrast, due to the weakening of military thinking in the IDF, which was unable to cope with the changes that occurred in the battlefield and failed to formulate an updated doctrine, solutions involving...
No. 4, January 2018
Major Trends in Iranian Society
Raz Zimmt
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
Iranian society is complex and in flux, and since the Islamic Revolution has experienced far reaching demographic and cultural changes. An analysis of deep-seated trends in Iranian society demonstrates processes that both encourage and inhibit political change. The younger population is, for the most part, increasingly removed from the revolution’s values, which poses a challenge to the conservative religious establishment. At the same time, the aging of the society strengthens the preference for gradual change and political...
The Iranian Military Intervention in Syria: A Look to the Future
Ephraim Kam
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
Despite various constraints, Iran apparently intends to leave military forces in Syria indefinitely. Most of these forces will likely come from Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiite militias and, to a lesser degree, from the Afghan and Pakistani militias, and will be led by members of the Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force. In such a scenario, they will tighten Iran’s grip on Syria, enhance Iran’s regional influence, and generate new threats against Israel. However, this military involvement also incurs weaknesses for Iran, including...
The Changes in Saudi Arabia: Preparing for Possible Destabilization
, Yoel Guzansky
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
The resilience demonstrated by Saudi Arabia over the last seven tumultuous years does not guarantee its long term stability. Indeed, not only has the risk of an outbreak of political violence not been removed, but due to circumstances and processes underway in the kingdom, the risk is greater than in the past. Furthermore, in recent years, the Middle East has seen seemingly stable regimes collapse with no prior warning signs. Given the far reaching consequences of a collapse of the regime in Riyadh, it is important to consider this...
State Collapse in Libya: Prospects and Implications
, Ofir Winter, ,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of a further breakdown of state coherence in Libya, and considers the implications for Israel as it seeks to minimize the risks associated with greater instability in North Africa. Libya’s strategic importance for Israel lies in its potential destabilizing impact on Egypt, its involvement in the regional struggle between Islamist and anti-Islamist factions, and its emergence as a conduit for Russia’s growing regional influence. Israeli policymakers would do well to enhance security and...
Russia and China in the Middle East: Rapprochement and Rivalry
Galia Lavi,
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
As the war in Syria appears to be drawing to a close, Russia and China are looking ahead, particularly at the business opportunities available to them. Yet despite the rapprochement between Russia and China in the international arena, the cooperation that characterized these two powers during the war in Syria is likely to give way to economic rivalry that will remind them both of the bones of contention between them. At the same time, the Russian-Chinese rapprochement in the global arena, and recently in the Middle East as well,...
Stabilizing Afghanistan: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach
Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
Since NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission ended in December 2014, the security situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated immensely. Against this background, President Trump has advanced a “new Afghan strategy” that focuses on sending more troops, “killing terrorists,” and eschewing “nation-building” in order to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. Yet with the adoption of this militarized approach, it is important to analyze the problems that have plagued Afghanistan over the past...
Israel and Delegitimization in Europe: The Netherlands Case Study
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
This article addresses the amorphous phenomenon of “Israel’s delegitimization in the international arena” with a qualitative and quantitative analysis of media coverage relating to Israel in a defined region and time period. The choice for this methodology is based on literature showing that foreign news reporting affects public opinion, and in turn, the shaping and implementation of policy directives. Against this backdrop, this article considers the scope of articles relating to Israel and how Israel was framed in the local Dutch...
Women’s Combat Service in the IDF: The Stalled Revolution
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Strategic Assessment, Volume 20, No. 4, January 2018
The unique status of the IDF in Israeli society and its role as “the people’s army” makes it an arena for struggle between various social groups in Israel. Specifically, the revolution that began in the late 1990s in women’s integration in the IDF faces resistance originating in several processes: the increasing dominance of the religious camp in Israeli society and politics, changes in the social composition of the military in general and the combat units in particular, and reinforcement of religious foundations within the military....
Volume 1
No. 1 | January 2017
This essay focuses on jointness in intelligence. New ways of thinking over the past years have led to the breakdown of the compartmentalizing of intelligence organizations and have given rise to models of jointness within intelligence organizations, military forces, and civilian entities so that they can carry out complex missions. This essay surveys the theoretical and practical development of the concept of jointness and presents four archetypes of jointness, based on several Israeli and American case histories.
The United States’ Cyber Warfare History: Implications on Modern Cyber Operational Structures and Policymaking
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, January 2017
This article will touch upon two main components of the United States’ cybersphere and cyber warfare. First, it will review three cyber incidents during different time periods, as the US infrastructure, mechanisms, and policies were gradually evolving. It will analyze the conceptual, operational, and legislative evolution that led to the current decision-making paradigm and institutional structure of the US cybersphere. Secondly, the paper will examine the procedures and policies of the Intelligence Community (IC), and the US cyber...
Lessons Learned from the “Viral Caliphate”: Viral Effect as a New PSYOPS Tool?
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, January 2017
This paper aims to analyze still unnoticed aspects of the so-called Islamic State’s cyber jihadist campaign in order to indicate its potential utility for state-sponsored information warfare. To begin with, it tends to present the most important features of the “Islamic Caliphate’s” online campaign, which aims to generate the “viral effect”. Moreover, the paper attempts to provide an overview of earlier military conflicts, in which the viral effect could be noticed. And finally, based on these considerations, it answers the question...
An Intelligence Civil War: “HUMINT’” vs. “TECHINT”
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, January 2017
Since 9/11, intelligence has evolved within a changing atmosphere of modern tactics and techniques for information collection. This atmosphere, coupled with massive leaps in technological advancement such as social media, mobile communications, processing analytics, large-form solid-state data storage, novel computational hardware, and software equipment, has thrust intelligence communities around the world into a strange new world of multi-dimensional intelligence. While science and technology and human capability both remain...
Israeli Cyberspace Regulation: A Conceptual Framework, Inherent Challenges, and Normative Recommendations
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, January 2017
The cybersecurity challenge cuts across fields, sectors, and approaches. This essay presents the fundamentals of the problem, embraces a risk-based approach that perceives the state as society’s risk manager, and overviews the development of regulatory processes in modern societies. The essay then compares how the United States, European Union, and Israel have chosen to confront the cybersecurity challenge and stresses the importance and difficulties of imposing cybersecurity regulation on the civil sector. Finally, the essay...
Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, January 2017
Cybersecurity arguably is the discipline that could benefit most from the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI). Where conventional security systems might be slow and insufficient, artificial intelligence techniques can improve their overall security performance and provide better protection from an increasing number of sophisticated cyber threats. Beside the great opportunities attributed to AI within cybersecurity, its use has justified risks and concerns. To further increase the maturity of cybersecurity, a holistic view of...
Pedal to the Metal? The Race to Develop Secure Autonomous Cars
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, January 2017
The advent of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will have profound effects on car owner- ship, transportation, and security. It is already possible to hack into individual cars through their entertainment and navigation systems. The connecting of AVs to networks will make it possible to hack them on a large scale. Policymakers should act now to implement both technical and legal security mechanisms. Potential solu- tions include the establishment of a system of certificates, an effort to establish an air gap between different computer...
No. 2 | June 2017
Imposing and Evading Cyber Borders: The Sovereignty Dilemma
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
The world’s perception of cyberspace has evolved from the libertarian promises of the 1990s to the current situation, where nation-states seek to reestablish their sovereignty. This paper explores the history of our conceptions of cyberspace, from the enthusiastic utopias culminating in the so-called “declaration of independence of cyberspace” to the technological underpinnings and the legislative steps being taken by today’s governments to assert more control. It will address efforts in the West and East to resolve diverse,...
Four Big “Ds” and a Little “r”: A New Model for Cyber Defense
, Chuck Freilich,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
As with all emerging threats, the cyber realm represents new dangers, which will be difficult to address. This article argues that cyberthreats are not fundamentally different from other asymmetric threats, and it provides a conceptual model for developing a response by drawing on classic principles of military strategy, the “four Ds”— Detection, Deterrence, Defense, and Defeat—as well as resilience (the little “r”). We offer a model for how countries can create policies addressing each of these principles that will enhance the...
Proportional Response to Cyberattacks
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
Analysis in recent years demonstrates that government responses to cyberattacks vary widely. Although there has been significant political pressure to “do something,” past experiences illustrate that most policy responses are ad hoc. This indicates that 1) response to cyberattacks is still an exceedingly untested phenomenon; 2) cyber domain is a relatively new arena of conflict—especially for the policymakers—and, therefore, special attention should be directed towards it; and 3) more research is needed to understand how...
Human Terrain and Cultural Intelligence in the Test of American and Israeli Theaters of Confrontation
Kobi Michael,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
This article describes and defines the concept of “human terrain” that developed in the American military following its experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq and elaborates on the reasons that led to its development. It focuses on the theoretical foundations and on the correlations between human terrain, cultural intelligence, and intercultural competence, all against the backdrop of the American and Israeli experiences in different theaters of confrontation. Acquiring an in-depth understanding of the local culture is an essential...
A Cooperative Approach between Intelligence and Policymakers at the National Level: Does it Have a Chance?
David Siman-Tov,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
The proximity of relations between intelligence officers and policymakers and the balance between the aspirations of the intelligence officers to influence the decision-making process and their primary professional duty to ather accurate intelligence is an ongoing argument within the intelligence discourse. Other discussions focus on whether the primary professional duty of the intelligence officer is merely to create intelligence or also to actively shape policy, and whether strategic intelligence is a product of research groups in...
Comparative Assessment of Indian and Israeli Military Strategy in Countering Terrorism
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India recently compared his country’s cross-border response against terrorists in Pakistan— following the attack in Uri in Indian-administered Kashmir—to Israel’s pre-emptive and retaliatory raids across its borders. This has given rise to serious debate about whether it is desirable for India to adopt Israeli military strategy. A country’s history, political culture, and dominant discourse of national security greatly influence policymakers and their communities. With that in mind, in this article, it...
Framing the Cyberthreat through the Terror-Ballistics Analogy
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 1, June 2017
Cyberthreats are a new and developing, complex phenomenon. A central way for decision makers to cope with this difficulty is through analogies as simplifying psychological constructs. One analogy that could be used is terrorism and specifically the terrorballistics experience in Israel. Building on this analogy, three main takeaways are suggested. The first takeaway is that key assumptions on the cybersecurity future should be revisited. The second one is the possibility of adapting the “six Ds” counterterror framework— Defense,...
No.3 | December 2017
Cybersecurity and Economic Espionage: The Case of Chinese Investments in the Middle East
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
The utilization of emerging technologies for purposes of cyber espionage is the cornerstone of this paper. Although many have referred to cyber security risks that are directly connected to the security sphere, national security threats due to economic cyber espionage have not been dealt with to the same extent, and this oversight is rather puzzling. As cyberspace becomes increasingly utilized for espionage purposes, it is imperative to further examine the possibility of exploiting cyberspace for the purpose of espionage specifically...
The British Response to Threats in Cyberspace
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
The cyber threat ranks high among the risks to a country’s interests and national security. In recent years, this threat has already materialized in cyberattacks on political institutions, political parties, organizations, financial institutions, and critical national infrastructure around the world. In the future, additional risks are expected, particularly to the civilian sector, originating in the Internet of Things. These risks are the result of the growing number of connected devices, most of which are neither secured by the...
Campaign in Cyber or Cyber in the Campaign
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
The field of cyber has acquired increasing legitimacy as an arena of action, as the international system becomes accustomed to its various uses for a range of needs. Israel sees cyber as a vital component of its national security, requiring investment and nurturing. From a historical point of view, the success of security and intelligence campaigns derives from smartly integrating new fields into the existing fabric—means, methods, and concepts— while implementing the necessary changes and adjustments. With the rapid introduction of...
Cyber Threats to Democratic Processes
David Siman-Tov, ,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
The Russian interference in the presidential elections in the United States and in France raises questions about the need and ability of democratic countries to protect their election processes. This article indicates the importance of relating to elections in a democratic country as both critical infrastructure and as a critical process, and it presents the threats to elections posed by both cyber and cultural developments. This article addresses the reality in which the extensive use of social networks and direct communications...
“The Missing Effort:” Integrating the “Non-lethal” Dimension in the Israeli Military Lines of Operation
David Siman-Tov,
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
This essay examines the idea of “Non-lethal warfare” and how it can and should be integrated in the framework of the IDF’s military campaigns. It addresses the organizational, conceptual, and cultural barriers obstructing such a policy, and the changes required in the IDF’s operating principles: establishing the guidelines; changing the concept of time in a military operational design; shifting from a structure of covert to overt campaigns that are connected to the civilian environment; and devising a supportive intelligence and...
Not Merely a Technological Advantage: The United States’ Organizational Change in Cyber Warfare
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
The cyber arms race is part of the state security reality in our times, resulting in a sharp increase in the allocation of resources for the technological development of new defensive and offensive cyber capabilities. This article stresses that a different policy should be taken, arguing that due to the unique characteristics of the cyber dimension and the declining level of technological sophistication needed for offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, a security advantage in this field will results from a creative advancement...
The Vulnerable Architecture of Unmanned Aerial Systems: Mapping and Mitigating Cyberattack Threats
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, Volume 1, No. 3, December 2017
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), frequently referred to as drones, have become an essential and dominant tool of advanced military forces, especially those engaged in counterinsurgency, where they are used mostly for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions as well as for different kinds of operations involving targeted strikes. As the usage of unmanned systems for military purposes increases, so does their vulnerability to cyberattacks, the result of their growing dependence on computer-based systems. The...
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