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Periodicals
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Page 9 of 78 |
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The Battle at the Rafah Mosque: Power Struggles and Philosophical Clashes
INSS Insight No. 125, August 24, 2009 |
| Schweitzer, Yoram |
| The violent clash in Gaza in mid-August at the Ibn Tamiyya mosque in Rafah between Hamas members and a group of al-Qaeda supporters from the Jund Ansar Allah organization, which led to the deaths of more than 20 Palestinians and the wounding of several dozen, has again demonstrated the violence, domination, and mercilessness Hamas exhibits towards its political rivals. At the same time, a volatile power struggle in the Gaza Strip was on full display, first and foremost, a struggle over Hamas’ control of the Gaza Strip population. In addition, the episode dramatized the dispute among the locals about how to conduct their daily lives and what should be the nature of their government vis-à-vis both internal issues and external enemies. |
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Fatah’s Sixth Convention: An Initial Assessment
INSS Insight No. 124, August 17, 2009 |
| Brom, Shlomo |
| Fatah’s sixth convention, held in Bethlehem on August 4-13, 2009, took place 20 years after the previous convention in Tunisia, which antedated the Madrid conference and the beginning of the Oslo process. For many years Yasir Arafat refrained from convening the forum, even though Fatah's protocol calls for a convention every five years. The very fact of the recent event is a victory for Fatah’s current leader, Mahmoud Abbas, who succeeded in holding the convention after many postponements and in the face of severe intra-organizational opposition, especially on the part of the old guard worried about losing positions of influence. |
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Ghajar: Problem and Solution
INSS Insight No. 123, August 9, 2009 |
| Eiland, Giora |
| During his recent visit to Ghajar, Foreign Minister Lieberman said that a wall should be built between the two sections of the village, located respectively in Israeli and Lebanese territory. He added that concern for security is the leading consideration in such a move. Before examining the advantages of such a measure, it would be wise to understand how Israel arrived at a situation in which people who consider themselves Syrian, yet carry Israeli identification cards, may be forced to live in Lebanon |
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Oslo Revisited: Are the Fundamental Assumptions still Valid?
INSS Insight No. 122, August 7, 2009 |
| Shalom, Zaki |
| In a Newsweek interview on June 22, 2009, former prime minister Ehud Olmert stated that in his talks with Mahmoud Abbas, he had made fairly detailed offers towards an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, including: wllingness by Israel to give the Palestinians 93.5-93.7 percent of the territories. The Palestinians would receive an additional 5.8 percent as part of a land swap; a safe passage between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Olmert did not state who would have sovereignty and control over this passage; Israel is not willing to accept the Palestinian demand for the right of return. At the same time, in the framework of a humanitarian gesture, Israel would be willing to accept the return of a defined number of refugees. Olmert did not specify a number, but made it clear that it would be "a very, very limited number"; and on Jerusalem, Olmert proposed that the Holy Basin be under no national sovereignty and be managed jointly by Israel, Jordan, the Palestinians, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. |
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The Significance of the Elections in Iraqi Kurdistan
INSS Insight No. 121, August 4, 2009 |
| Eppel, Michael |
| The result of the July 25 regional parliamentary and presidential elections in the Kurdish autonomous region is a significant landmark in the history of the Kurds and Kurdistan. The coalition's Kurdistani List, composed of the two ruling parties in the autonomous region (the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani, president of the region, and Nechirvan Barzani, his prime minister; and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Jalal Talabani, president of Iraq), suffered a serious blow but retained a majority in the regional parliament. Although not final, the Kurdistani List appears to have won roughly 60 seats in the regional parliament. Until the elections, it held an absolute majority with 89 of the seats. Barham Salih, deputy prime minister of Iraq and Talabani’s close associate, headed the Kurdistani List, and he may well be Kurdistan’s next prime minister. |
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Russia’s Iranian Dilemma
INSS Insight No. 120, August 4, 2009 |
| Magen, Zvi |
| The reality of the Iranian nuclear issue and the possibility that as a result of America’s new policy Russia will find itself outside the game have created a dilemma for Russia. So far Russia has assumed an ambivalent position: on the one hand it expresses concern over Iran's possibly becoming a nuclear power, denies any involvement in the process, and seemingly agrees that it is necessary to stop Iran, and on the other hand, expresses sweeping support for Iran, which includes active participation in the development of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. |
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Red Light, Green Light: Establishing US Levers of Pressure on Iran
INSS Insight No. 119, July 13, 2009.
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| Landau, Emily B. |
| Statements made by US President Obama and Vice President Biden in the first week of July regarding the US position on Iran elevated in particular the issue of whether a green light had been provided to Israel for an attack on Iran. The immediate question of a possible green light was raised by Biden when he said in an interview from Iraq that the US cannot dictate to another country what they can and cannot do when they determine that they are existentially threatened. The issue was then put to rest when Obama absolutely denied that this meant the US was giving Israel a green light to attack. According to Obama, Biden had merely stated a "categorical fact": that the US cannot dictate to other states what their security interests are.
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The Pros and Cons of Nuclear Power in the Middle East
INSS Insight No. 118, July 6, 2009 |
| Asculai, Ephraim |
| Iran's progressing nuclear program and the fears it has aroused were likely the trigger for some Middle East states to initiate ambitious nuclear power programs. Last year Abu Dhabi concluded a multi-billion deal with France to build nuclear power reactors. The United Arab Emirates signed a deal with the US, Jordan signed an agreement with Britain, and Egypt announced that it is resurrecting its decades-old plans to build nuclear power reactors along its Mediterranean coast. |
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Khaled Mashal's Response Speech
INSS Insight No. 117, July 1, 2009 |
| Brom, Shlomo |
| Adopting the current fashion inaugurated by President Obama with his June 4 Cairo address, Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mashal joined the list of political leaders delivering major policy speeches in the Middle East. On June 25, Mashal delivered a response to the speeches of Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. His address presents Hamas’ comprehensive, updated political approach, thus also deciding the internal debate within Hamas between the so-called moderates and the so-called radicals – in favor of the moderates. |
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The Internal Conflict in Iran
INSS Insight No. 116, June 25, 2009 |
| Kam, Ephraim |
| In a number of respects, the current internal conflict in Iran should be the source of much concern to the leaders of the Islamic regime. Demonstrations and riots erupt in Iran every few years, protesting primarily intervention by the regime in the life of the individual or the economic situation. However, in terms of the number of participants, the duration of the disturbances, the number of casualties, and the expression of anger and determination by the participants, recent events exceed all previous episodes since the 1979 revolution. This time the demonstrations were not aimed only at President Ahmadinejad – limited student demonstrations against him have taken place in the past – but also at Spiritual Leader Khamenei. In the past Khamenei managed to stay above the internal debates and conflicts, but here he took a stand and supported the “election” of Ahmadinejad as president and thereby became a side in the conflict. Rivalry – almost since the day the regime was established – has often marked the regime’s leadership. However, this time some of the rivalries came out in the open, and as the serious crisis raged, some senior members of the regime, including former presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami and presidential candidates Mousavi and Karroubi stood up to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. Moreover, there also seems to be a split in the religious leadership: a number of senior clerics abstained from expressing their support for the results of the elections and for Ahmadinejad, and some even expressed support for Mousavi. |
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| Happy New Year |
1283726551.bmp) Best wishes from INSS for a happy and healthy new year, full of peace, security, and propsperity.
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