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Periodicals
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Page 10 of 78 |
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The Outcome of Iran's Presidential Elections
INSS Insight No. 115, June 18, 2009 |
| Kam, Ephraim |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory in Iran's presidential elections is in itself no surprise. The surprise lies both in the huge margin by which he defeated his main opponent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, and in that he earned his victory in the first round of voting, although the impression in the final pre-election days was that Mousavi was garnering growing support in the cities. Nonetheless, Ahmadinejad had important political assets, and these netted him the victory. He is especially popular among the middle and lower classes in rural areas for many reasons, among them his own simple way of life and his call to return to the values of the Islamic Revolution. He enjoys the support of religious organizations and apparently also that of the Revolutionary Guards from whose ranks he emerged. Above all, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the most important individual in Iran’s top leadership, supported him. These edges were enough for Ahmadinejad to parry successfully the harsh criticism leveled against him, particularly in light of Iran’s difficult economic situation. While it is likely there was widespread fraud in the election process that colored the actual voter results, it is uncertain whether this determined the final outcome. In any case, it is clear that Ahmadinejad took advantage of being the incumbent president to secure funds and media time to help his campaign. |
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The People's Voice: Results of a Public Opinion Survey on National Security Issues
INSS Insight No. 114, June 14, 2009 |
| Ben Meir, Yehuda |
| The heightened disagreement between the United States and Israel over a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and future settlement activity in the West Bank has come to the fore. This evening the Israeli prime minister is scheduled to deliver a major policy address that is seen as an answer to President Obama's recent Cairo speech. Mr. Netanyahu is expected to outline his policies – including specific plans and proposals – with regard to the peace process as well as other central challenges facing Israel in the political-military arena. In context of the prime minister's speech and its aftermath, a critical question concerns the opinions and attitudes of the Israeli public on these issues. As part of an ongoing project at the Institute for National Security Studies, an in-depth study of the opinions of the adult Jewish population of Israel on a broad range of national security issues was conducted during the first three weeks of May 2009. A number of key findings regarding issues that are at the forefront of Israel's political, diplomatic, and public agenda are presented here. |
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Lebanon's Parliamentary Elections
INSS Insight No. 113, June 12, 2009 |
| Kulick, Amir |
| The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on June 7, 2009 featured two main electoral camps. One, the "March 14 alliance," comprised the Sunnis, represented by the al-Mustaqbal (“Future Movement”) Party headed by Sa’ad al-Hariri; the Druze – the Progressive-Socialist Party headed by Walid Jumblatt; and various Christian elements, among them the Phalangists and the Lebanese Forces. Opposing them was the "March 8 alliance," composed of the Shiites – Hizbollah and Amal; "The Free Patriotic Movement,” the party of the Christian Maronite politician Michel Aoun; and other small factions such as Sleiman Franjieh’s Christian party from northern Lebanon. |
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World Passivity in the Face of Advanced Nuclear Challenges
INSS Insight No. 112, June 8, 2009 |
| Asculai, Ephraim |
| With the countries of the world looking on, Iran reached its next serious milestone: the accumulation of enough low enriched uranium (LEU) to enable it to further enrich it and produce one Significant Quantity (S.Q.), or 25 kilograms, of high enriched uranium (HEU). This is considered the quantity that is sufficient for the production of one core for an HEU-based nuclear explosive device. The Iranians reached this milestone some months earlier than expected, due mainly to their efficiency in installing and operating a large number of gas centrifuges, the machines that perform the enrichment operation. |
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Obama’s Speech in Cairo
INSS Insight No. 111, June 8, 2009 |
| Bart, Roni |
| President Obama’s June 4 speech in Cairo continued to illustrate his basic approach towards the international arena. In previous speeches, particularly those in Europe, Latin America, and Ankara, the president explicitly or implicitly apologized for past American mistakes, promised to listen and consult rather than issue edicts, and suggested exchanging disagreements and conflicts with cooperation to promote common goals, all of this on the basis of “mutual respect and interest.” Obama also is wont to list popular steps that the United States under his leadership has taken and will take. There is no doubt that his election to the presidency, his approach to international issues, and his rhetoric have measurably improved the international atmosphere surrounding the United States. |
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Ramifications of the North Korean Nuclear Test
INSS Insight No. 110, May 31, 2009 |
| Landau, Emily B. and Asculai, Ephraim |
| The May 25, 2009 North Korean explosion sent shockwaves around the world, much stronger and more diverse than the seismological data recorded. These were the mainly political but also military implications of the apparently successful nuclear test. "Apparently," because no outside, objective evidence was presented to confirm the characteristics and the magnitude of the explosion. If the underground test was fully contained and no radioactive particles were or will be vented to the atmosphere, no data will be available for the analysis of the test. |
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Obama-Netanyahu: The First Inning
INSS Insight No. 109, May 21, 2009 |
| Eran, Oded |
| After a long meeting that exceeded its scheduled time, President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with the press together yet addressed completely different audiences. President Obama spoke to the international community and the Arab states. With the exception of some small audiences in the United States, it is hard to imagine that the American public was waiting for the outcome of the meeting with bated breath. By contrast, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to approximately fifty – or fewer – Members of Knesset who are in his coalition. The fact that the two leaders came to the meeting with different objectives and presented the meeting in different lights allowed each of them to emerge from the first meeting between them feeling satisfied: President Obama appeared as the responsible superpower leader possessing an international view, while Netanyahu did not get himself into hot water in this first test. There is a feeling that there are differences of opinion but no crisis in the bilateral relations, and none of the government ministers in Israel has any reason to resign. |
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The Obama Administration vs. Prime Minister Netanyahu: Confrontation in the Making?
INSS Insight No. 108, May 17, 2009 |
| Shalom, Zaki |
| A few months after coming into office, the strategic political approach of the new Obama administration towards Israel and the Palestinian issue is becoming clearer. Although it has not yet been fully solidified, this approach does not augur well for the Netanyahu government and the political positions it represents. While thus far the administration has not yet announced an official new peace plan, several recent utterances create a picture that might appear unfriendly, perhaps even threatening, from the perspective of the current Israeli government. |
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The US and the NPT: Israel on the Line?
INSS Insight No. 107, May 11, 2009 |
| Landau, Emily B. |
| In her opening statement at the 3rd session of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2010 NPT Review Conference, Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller discussed the three pillars of the NPT: disarmament, nonproliferation, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In the context of her comments on nonproliferation, she noted that "universal adherence to the NPT itself – including by India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea – also remains a fundamental objective of the United States." |
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Pakistan and Afghanistan in the Eye of the Storm
INSS Insight No, 106, May 10, 2009 |
| Schweitzer, Yoram and Asculai, Ephraim |
| Over the past weeks, the US has accelerated efforts to confront the danger to world peace and its own security arising from the security situation in Pakistan. In a statement to Congress, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was quoted as saying that the ongoing deterioration in the internal security situation of the nuclear Islamic country and the possibility that its government would fall into the hands of extreme Islamic elements constituted a danger to the US and world peace. Secretary Clinton's remarks implied criticism of the agreement signed by Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari with the Taliban, an agreement that in effect recognized the latter’s control of the Swat valley, which enables it to impose its control and extreme religious way of life on the residents of the region (including gross violations of women’s rights). |
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| Happy New Year |
1283726551.bmp) Best wishes from INSS for a happy and healthy new year, full of peace, security, and propsperity.
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